The world’s worst death toll? At least three million people died from Covid in India, says new study

Approximately three million Indians had died from Covid-19 by September, making it the country worst hit by the pandemic, according to a new study by a leading global epidemiologist.

It has long been feared that India’s death toll is much higher than its official up-to-date figure of 480,000 due to a failure to accurately register deaths, particularly during its devastating second wave last spring when hospitals were overwhelmed.

Prabhat Jha, the director of the Centre for Global Health Research at the University of Toronto, conducted a telephone survey among 140,000 people across India to inquire whether anyone in their household had died from Covid-19.

His team also analysed government reports from hospitals for deaths and compared this with official data.

They concluded that India had actually seen between 2,300 and 2,500 deaths per million citizens up until September 2021 and therefore, nearly three million total fatalities. This would mean India has the highest Covid-19 death toll of any country.

It has long been accepted that India has drastically undercounted its Covid-19 dead. Its public healthcare system is one of the most underfunded in the world and data on deaths has long been patchy.

In 2017, only four-in-five deaths were registered, while only one-in-five registered deaths also had a cause identified, according to Indian government data.

India was plunged into chaos last spring as the delta variant overwhelmed the country and thousands of Indians died outside at capacity hospitals and in their homes.

Many were unable to get tested for Covid-19 before they died while others were hastily buried in makeshift burial sites.
This discrepancy in the death toll has already been noted in state-wise mortality data across India. For example, in the central Indian state of Madhya Pradesh there were almost 24 times the expected deaths during April 2020 and May 2021.

Madhya Pradesh was also one of five states where less than ten per cent of deaths during this period were medically certified.

Meanwhile, India’s ongoing third wave, which is being driven by the more contagious omicron variant, continues to escalate.

On Thursday, the country logged 117,100 new Covid-19 cases – more than triple the daily tally on January 1 – and the most since early June.

Many hospitals in India’s major cities have reported a noticeable uptick in Covid-19 hospitalisations. In Mumbai, the number of people admitted increased from 916 on December 15 to 4,491 on January 4.

The Indian authorities have called for calm and reiterated that there remains plenty of beds available across the country but there is concern that if cases continue to rise at the current rate that facilities could again become overwhelmed.

Modelling by the Indian Institute of Science and Indian Statistical Institute suggests the third wave could peak with anywhere between 300,000 and one million daily cases, likely towards the end of January.

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