Why Detroit Tigers think catcher Carson Kelly could stick around for 2024
CLEVELAND — The Detroit Tigers have turned their attention to the future.
The latest example of the forward-focused approach occurred Saturday afternoon, when Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris signed catcher Carson Kelly, a former top prospect joining the third MLB team of his eight-year career, for the final 40 games of the 2023 season.
But Kelly is more than a six-week rental.
"We wouldn't have made the move without some expectation that he can be part of the solution moving forward," Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said Saturday. "We could pair him with Jake (Rogers) and have a really formidable duo."
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The Tigers were interested in Kelly from the moment he was designated for assignment Aug. 13 by the Arizona Diamondbacks, ahead of his release Aug. 15. The 29-year-old became a free agent for the first time in his professional career.
This is where Harris got creative: The Tigers signed Kelly to the prorated minimum salary for the remainder of the 2023 season with a $3.5 million club option plus incentives for the 2024 season, meaning the Tigers — not Kelly — will decide what happens next.
The $3.5 million club option, by the way, is less than his $4.275 million salary in 2023, and that's before the small raise he likely would have received this offseason in his final round of salary arbitration. If it doesn't work out, the Tigers can decline the club option and cut ties without being on the hook financially.
It's a low-risk, high-reward signing.
"With six weeks left in the season, there's a crash course for us to get to know him and for him to get to know us," Hinch said Saturday. "Decisions can be made after the season as to how we move forward."
The Tigers are confident in their plan to help Kelly improve as an all-around player, thus tapping into his upside, but for the Tigers to pick up the option, he needs to show signs of development in two specific categories — making line-drive contact on offense and receiving pitches on defense — over that short span.
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Injury woes
Kelly, a second-round pick in the 2012 draft, was shipped from St. Louis to Arizona in the 2018 trade that sent Paul Goldschmidt to the Cardinals. For one season, at least, Kelly made it seem as though the Diamondbacks had gotten decent value for the future National League MVP, turning in the best season of his 447-game career in 2019 — a .245 average with 18 home runs, 48 walks (13.2% walk rate) and 79 strikeouts (21.6% strikeout rate) in 111 games.
He has yet to match that in the four seasons since, though 2021 brought a solid performance over 98 games: .240 with 13 homers, 44 walks (12.3% walk rate) and 74 strikeouts (20.6% strikeout rate). But Kelly's missing ability has been this: Durability.
"The power has been hit or miss," Hinch said. "When it's been hit, it's been really good. When it's been miss, the strikeouts piled up a little bit and the performance declined, and then he got hurt at the wrong time."
Kelly has always displayed solid contact skills and strike zone discipline, but injuries in recent seasons seemed to hinder his ability to drive the ball. He suffered a fracture in his left big toe in May 2021, a right wrist fracture in June 2021, a left oblique strain in May 2022 and a right forearm fracture in March 2023.
"I've broken five bones in three years," Kelly said Saturday. "A lot of things out of my control."
His line-drive rate dropped from 26.3% in 2019 to 22.6% in 2023. His average exit velocity dropped as well, from 88.9 mph in 2019 to 87.2 mph in 2023. After launching 36 home runs over 248 games in 2019-21, he has just eight homers in 136 games since the start of the 2022 season.
The Tigers plan to tweak his mechanics in pursuit of a solution.
"It's been tough," Kelly said of the injuries. "I got hit in spring (training) and broke my forearm on a 101-mph heater. It happened a week before the season starts, and I missed four months. ... I think it's going to make me a better person because of it, and a better player. I've had a lot of time to think and work on things."
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Glove hurts?
Kelly, who needs to learn a new pitching staff, has been praised for his game management as a catcher, so much so that the Tigers will trust him to handle the primary catching duties if Rogers gets hurt in the final six weeks.
He isn't sloppy behind the plate, but his receiving skills measure out below average. His pitch framing, while excelling on above the strike zone, ranks in the 22nd percentile this season.
But Kelly was a slightly better all-around pitch framer in the 2019-22 seasons.
"There's some things here, some techniques and different movements catching-wise," Kelly said. "It's the same with hitting, different approaches. I know when I'm healthy and I can do both, I'm a good player. I think I can help this team, and I'm excited to get this opportunity."
He believes he can get better, too, and is eager to buy into the Tigers' plan.
"Talking with A.J., he believes in me and has a good plan for me," Kelly said. "It's something I love to do. I love to work. I love to grow and get better and have an open mindset. I think this is going to be a great fit for me."
Maybe Kelly won't click in the next six weeks. But if he follows their instructions, the Tigers will feel confident going into the 2024 season with Kelly as the backup to Rogers. (Prospect Dillon Dingler was promoted to Triple-A Toledo earlier this month, but the Tigers feel he still needs development, specifically his approach on offense.)
A Rogers-Kelly tandem behind the plate next season would be a win for Harris and the Tigers, but it's not a guarantee until Kelly proves his value.
"We chose to sign Carson and have a pretty good plan in place," Hinch said. "We think there's some areas that we can address to make him better. We think he can help us moving forward."
Contact Evan Petzold at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him on Twitter @EvanPetzold.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Inside Detroit Tigers' goals for new catcher Carson Kelly
