Want to know when fall foliage will peak in NY, NJ? This interactive map will help

Ready or not, here comes fall. Within a month, New Jersey’s trees will begin to shed their green for the seasonal hues of yellow, red, orange and brown.

But if you have an urge to see fall's festive color show sooner, the tourism site for the Great Smoky Mountains has released its annual Fall Foliage Prediction Map at SmokyMountians.com, an interactive graphic that shows when leaf colors are likely to peak across the nation.

For instance, by the week of Sept. 18 most of New England and upstate New York will show partial color change, and they will see near to full peak color as early as the week of Oct. 2, the map predicts.

North Jersey is supposed to see partial color by then but isn't expected to see peak color until the week of Oct. 16, according to the map. South Jersey won't peak until the week of Oct. 23.

Jason Grabosky, a professor in Rutgers University’s Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Natural Resources, said it will be a couple of weeks until colors fully develop, assuming trees are “really healthy.”

Chlorophyll breaks down, showing true colors

As days get shorter, trees start to produce less chlorophyll, the pigment that makes leaves green, and it starts to break down, revealing the leaves' actual colors of red, yellow, orange or brown.

“Most of the tree species that we’re looking for, they work on a time clock that is set by the length of daylight,” Grabosky said. Beyond the amount of daylight, leaves may turn a little faster if there has been dry weather and trees are stressed, he said. "If we get a little rain or it stays a little warm at night, our colors will be less dramatic, but we’ll still have color.”

More: From fall foliage to Halloween ghouls, see photos readers sent to Eyes Across North Jersey

Grabosky said leaves in New Jersey don’t currently seem dry, other than some on hilltops that may change earlier as a result.

If you want to see the earliest colorful leaves in New Jersey, NJ Hiking suggests climbing to higher elevations, like Monument Trail at High Point State Park in Sussex County, which takes hikers to the highest elevation in the state.

The Great Smoky Mountains team combined several factors to predict what fall foliage may look like this season, including historical and forecast temperature and precipitation. The team also considered the types of trees growing in each region, because each presents different colors.

The more diverse a forest is, the more diverse the color palette will look, Grabosky said.

Predictions quite accurate

The map, like other weather predictions, isn’t guaranteed to be 100% accurate. The map’s site allows users to submit photos to help the team gather data to consider for future years, but the team feels confident after 10 years of publishing the map and analyzing information, according to a fact sheet shared with NorthJersey.com.

Grabosky said the map’s predictions are quite accurate because the signals that start color changes are “pretty fixed.”

Pockets of New Jersey will show more vibrant tree colors even though factors wouldn't predict that, but that’s part of the fun for Grabosky, a self-proclaimed “tree geek.”

His advice: Get outside and enjoy what you can see.

“The more you get out, the more likely you’re going to have those breathtaking views,” Grabosky said. “The key is to take time and enjoy and ponder what you do see. Don’t worry about what’s best — enjoy what you get.”

This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: Fall foliage 2023 interactive map shows peak color in NJ, NY