UFC 281 Fight Card: PPV Schedule, Odds and Predictions for Adesanya vs. Pereira
The UFC heads to Madison Square Garden with a loaded card that features Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira in the main event of UFC 281 for the middleweight title.
Adesanya has proved time and again to be the top fighter in the 185-pound division, but he faces a unique challenge on Saturday night. Pereira holds two wins over The Last Stylebender from when both men were professional kickboxers.
Now, he'll get a chance to make it a perfect 3-0 with a win inside the cage.
Carla Esparza will attempt to defend her women's strawweight title in the co-main event against Zhang Weili, who gets a chance to claim the crown after losing it to Rose Namajunas in 2021.
The lineup also includes Dustin Poirer, Michael Chandler, Frankie Edgar and Dan Hooker.
Here's a look at the complete card along with the major questions that will determine the results of the night's biggest fights.
Main Card (ESPN+ PPV, 10 p.m. ET)
Prelims (ESPNews/ESPN+, 8 p.m. ET)
Early Prelims (ESPNews/ESPN+, 6 p.m. ET)
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
The obvious draw to this matchup is the history between the two.
The first time they met, it was a close fight that Pereira ultimately won via decision. The rematch was even more interesting. Adesanya was winning the fight right up until the moment Pereira connected with a left hook that knocked him out.
The left hook is a punch that is vital to Pereira's tool kit. He attempted to land it several times in their two fights. For the most part, Adesanya's defensive acumen and movement kept it from finding a home.
But all it took was one time to change the fight.
That's the crux of the matchup once again. Adesanya has the advantage when it comes to movement, defense and kickboxing at range.
Pereira is always just one punch away from changing the fight, though. Adesanya should hold the advantage if this makes it the distance. He's the much more active fighter, and the judges typically favor activity.
However, his margin for error is thin.
Prediction: Adesanya via decision
Carla Esparza is a sizable underdog for a champion in her fight Zhang Weili. The MMA transitive property makes this an interesting one. Zhang lost to Rose Namajunas twice, then Esparza scored an upset win over Thug Rose.
That doesn't necessarily mean Esparza matches up well with the challenger, though.
There's a large disparity in striking ability. Zhang has the ability to overwhelm opponents with her power on the feet, while Esparza is a fairly one-dimensional fighter who needs to get the fight to the mat.
The problem is that Zhang is much stronger than Namajunas and will be harder to take down. She averages two takedowns per 15 minutes herself and has 60 percent takedown defense, per UFC Stats.
The champion's best path to victory still resides in turning this into a wrestling match. But closing the distance against Zhang's power is going to be dangerous every time.
Prediction: Weili via third-round TKO
Michael Chandler's UFC debut after a dominant run in Bellator signaled the arrival of a new face in the stacked lightweight title picture. He knocked out Dan Hooker in the first round and appeared primed to take out some big names.
Then came back-to-back losses to Charles Oliveira in a title fight and Justin Gaethje. Next was Tony Ferguson, who was a definite step down in competition at that point in his career. Chandler knocked him out in the first round, but it still doesn't feel like we know where exactly he falls in the lightweight hierarchy.
Dustin Poirier will help sort that out Saturday night. The well-rounded lightweight is among the top fighters in the division and is similar to Chandler in that he's a dangerous power puncher with solid boxing and the toughness to hang in the pocket.
The result should be a slugfest with both fighters trying to stay in the title picture.
That leaves questions as to where Chandler's chin is after lopsided losses to Oliveira and Gaethje.
Unless Chandler is willing to turn to his wrestling, Poirier's power should be the X-factor here.
Prediction: Poirier via third-round TKO
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