Tammy Baldwin launches re-election bid, setting up 2024 Senate battle in Wisconsin

WASHINGTON – Democratic U.S. Sen. Tammy Baldwin on Wednesday said she is running for re-election, officially setting up what is expected to be a high-profile race in Wisconsin as Democrats attempt to maintain their slim control of the Senate in 2024.

Baldwin, who was widely expected to seek a third term, confirmed her decision in a statement to the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.

“I'm committed to making sure that working people, not just the big corporations and ultra-wealthy, have a fighter on their side,” Baldwin said. “With so much at stake, from families struggling with rising costs to a ban on reproductive freedom, Wisconsinites need someone who can fight and win.”

Baldwin’s decision to seek re-election is the first major move in Wisconsin as Senate races in other states are already underway. A number of Republicans are considering a challenge to Baldwin, though none have yet declared a 2024 bid.

The announcement officially puts Baldwin among several incumbent Democrats nationwide who are likely to be targets for Republicans seeking to flip the chamber next year. The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter rated the race as “lean Democrat.”

Senate Democrats this cycle are defending 23 seats, including three held by independents who caucus with Democrats. Just 10 Republicans are up for re-election.

Baldwin, 61, is likely to put a focus on her longtime support for “Buy America” initiatives and a number of major bills passed in the last Congress. A spokesperson for Baldwin’s campaign indicated the Madison Democrat could highlight legislation to expand health care benefits for veterans exposed to toxic burn pits, as well as the Inflation Reduction Act, which capped insulin prices at $35 per month for Medicare recipients, as key achievements.

Democrats are sure to continue to campaign on abortion, which last week helped liberals flip the ideological balance of the Wisconsin Supreme Court in their favor, and Baldwin is expected to emphasize her efforts to restore federal abortion protections through the Women's Health Protection Act.

She scored an early endorsement from EMILYs List, a political group that supports pro-choice women running for office. The group called Baldwin, the Senate's first openly-gay member, "one of the strongest fighters we have in the Senate."

Baldwin's re-election announcement coincides with a statewide “Delivering For Wisconsin” tour launched this week. She has promoted her work to create the 988 hotline for people experiencing mental health crises and efforts to secure local public safety funding, and she plans to travel to western Wisconsin to tout workforce training grants and other initiatives.

Republicans call Wisconsin a top target for the 2024 Senate contests

With Democrats holding onto a razor-thin majority in the Senate, Republicans are likely to key in on Baldwin's seat in 2024. The National Republican Senatorial Committee this week told the Journal Sentinel that Wisconsin is "one of our top targets this cycle."

"Tammy Baldwin has joined her Democrat colleagues in the Senate to rubber-stamp Joe Biden and Chuck Schumer's reckless spending and radical agenda," NRSC spokesman Tate Mitchell said in a statement. "She's a reliable vote for the far left, not a senator Wisconsin can count on."

Wisconsin Republicans in their own statement also sought to tie Baldwin to the Biden Administration. “The Biden-Baldwin ticket will be on the hot seat with Wisconsin voters, in a state where four of the last six presidential elections were decided by less than 1% and Biden’s approval ratings are upside down," said Rachel Reisner, communications director for the Republican Party of Wisconsin.

Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, said he expects national Republicans to “prioritize” Baldwin’s seat but pointed to other states that he called better targets for the GOP.

Democrat-held seats in West Virginia, Montana and Ohio, as well as Independent U.S. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s Arizona seat, which could see a three-way race in 2024, could be better pickup opportunities for Republicans, according to Kondik. And other factors might determine how much focus is put on Wisconsin as campaign season gets underway.

“I think it will depend a lot on: Just how good is the Republican challenger?” Kondik said of the 2024 Wisconsin Senate race.

The answer to that question remains up in the air.

Baldwin has been a formidable Wisconsin Democrat

Madison businessman Eric Hovde has said he’s seriously considering a run, and Republicans in the state are quietly hoping U.S. Rep. Mike Gallagher mounts a bid. Gallagher has not ruled out a challenge to Baldwin but has said he is focused on his new assignment as chairman of the House Select Committee on China. Several other names have also been floated as potential candidates.

Baldwin is a proven fundraiser and is seen in the state as a formidable opponent. She defeated former Republican Gov. Tommy Thompson by 5 points in 2012 and Leah Vukmir by 11 points in 2018 — large margins in a battleground state accustomed to close finishes.

She had a little over $3 million in cash on hand in her campaign coffers as of the end of 2022, according to Federal Election Commission reports. And the upcoming contest could see a large investment from both parties.

Last year’s race between Republican U.S. Sen. Ron Johnson and former Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, which Johnson won by one point, was the fifth most expensive in the country, with $144 million spent on advertising in the general election, according to the tracking group AdImpact.

Ben Wikler, chairman of the Democratic Party of Wisconsin, in a statement praised Baldwin as a fighter and said “no one works harder for Wisconsin families than Tammy Baldwin.”

“Wisconsin Republicans aren’t going to stop their extremist attacks on our freedoms and our democracy any time soon,” Wikler said. “We know their ultra-MAGA billionaire allies are going to pour millions of dollars into this race to try to elect whichever radical extremist piques their fancy.”

He added, “But there’s a reason so many Republican politicians are hiding under a rug instead of running for U.S. Senate: they know that Wisconsinites trust Tammy Baldwin.”

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This article originally appeared on Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin launches 2024 re-election bid