Subtropical system threatening coastal Volusia and Flagler counties this week
DAYTONA BEACH — A subtropical system in the Atlantic Ocean is threatening rain and coastal flooding in the Volusia-Flagler area this week.
The expected weather conditions prompted officials to declare a state of local emergency in Volusia County on Friday as the area continues to recover from Tropical Storm Ian.
The emergency advisory, which is being issued to coastal residents, stated that the storm could last all week and "is predicted to adversely affect sections of the beachfront areas of Volusia County."
Ian's aftermath: FEMA opens new Ian disaster recovery center at Flagler County Fairgrounds in Bunnell
After Ian: With roofs gone, water-damaged rooms, long road back for some Daytona beachside hotels
Port Orange Pavilion: Ian's aftermath: Demolition underway of storm-damaged Port Orange Chuck E. Cheese eatery
"Volusia County urgently advises that all persons should take necessary precautions for their safety including if necessary, moving to a safer location and consider vacating those beachfront structures as soon as possible," a Volusia County press release stated.
Storm impacts will begin this weekend with dangerous tides expected to start on Monday evening.
Residents are also urged to stay off the beach for at least a week due to dangers of wind, high surf and damaged beach structures. Beach ramps will be closed when tides become too high, and additional flooding along the St. Johns River is also a possibility.
Volusia County Beach Safety also issued a release stating red beach warning flags will be flying into next week and encouraging visitors to observe posted safety warnings.
Rip currents, rough surf and breaking waves expected
Robert Haley, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Melbourne, said Friday that “it’s a very complex system,” with models yet uncertain on how severe the impact will be.
“At the moment, the primary impacts are looking to be coastal and marine due to dangerous surf, dangerous boating conditions,” Haley said. “And we are looking at probably some coastal flooding as well.”
He said they have already started to see hazardous surf conditions, including high risk of rip currents, rough surf and breaking waves.
“(Those conditions) could continue until the mid-part of (this) week,” Haley added.
He said that the area could see between 1 to 3 inches of rain, as well as an increase in moisture by Tuesday, which will then increase rain chances to between 60% and 70%.
Haley said that the storm is still developing and conditions could change; he encouraged area residents to “keep track of the Weather Service (online pages) for updates.”
Threat of further beach erosion in Volusia
The same warning was issued by Volusia County officials Thursday evening, adding that coastal erosion could result from the system.
“A lot of our coastal properties suffered tremendous damage and erosion from Hurricane Ian,” said Volusia County Emergency Management Director Jim Judge in a press release. “This new system heading our way can significantly threaten those properties with more erosion.”
Beachside erosion: More erosion, rain possible in Volusia with storm week ahead
According to the Volusia County Property Appraiser, there is an estimated $337 million in damages related to Tropical Storm Ian as of Oct. 27. Of that total, the category with the most damage so far is single-family homes at $199.3 million, followed by commercial properties — including hotels — with $114 million.
The system has the potential to bring strong rip currents, high surf and large breaking waves between 5 and 12 feet. Because the effects are expected to last through the week, the probability for coastal erosion increases considerably.
Emergency Management and Coastal Divisions staff are maintaining close communication with coastal municipalities, the National Weather Service, FEMA and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, as well as other agencies.
Volusia officials are urging residents and visitors to stay off the beach through the beginning of this week.
“With the loss of our sand buffer from Hurricane Ian and the significant coastal damage already sustained, beach conditions during this upcoming weather event are not conducive for beachgoers,” the release said. “Beach ramps will be closed to beach driving as weather and tidal conditions warrant. As a safety precaution, all trash cans and port-o-lets will be removed.”
Coastal residents are encouraged to watch for new developments, make necessary preparations now and heed any cautionary messages if issued.
‘We can’t let our guard down now’
In Flagler County, officials are also warning residents about the possible dangerous conditions on the beachside.
“Our greatest concerns are the coastal impacts from higher tides and surf, waves of up to 7 feet,” said Emergency Management Director Jonathan Lord in a press release. “This could further damage our already significantly-weakened dune system.”
Flagler's beachside: Flagler Beach reviews Ian response, says dune walkovers may cost over $1 million to repair
Impacts to Flagler County could begin affecting “late Sunday, peak on Tuesday or Wednesday, and continue through late Thursday,” officials said. The Intracoastal Waterway may see minor flooding as tides will be about a foot above normal.
“We consider ourselves lucky that Hurricane Ian didn’t have a greater impact here in Flagler, but the storm left us in a very fragile state,” Lord added. “We can’t let our guard down now, because any weather system that brings winds and high tides truly is a threat to our coast.”
While evacuations are unlikely, coastal residents should continue “to pay attention to weather forecasts and should expect direct impacts to the beaches and dune systems,” officials said.
This article originally appeared on The Daytona Beach News-Journal: Volusia County issues emergency advisory over subtropical storm threat
