Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 4: Advice for Unfavorable Fantasy Football Matchups

While not every NFL star has gotten off to a strong start in 2022, fantasy managers know who the must-starts are. If Cooper Kupp is healthy, for example, he's not coming out of the lineup.

Unfortunately, not every roster decision is this easy. Sometimes, you have to play the matchups and know when a big-time player just isn't likely to produce. The trick, of course, is knowing when those tough matchups are real problems and when they could be mere mirages.

Week 4 will feature its fair share of tough fantasy situations, and we're here to help sort through the uncertainty. Below, you'll find four brutal fantasy matchups and a look at who to start and who to sit.

In years past, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers fell firmly into the "must-start" category of players. He's won back-to-back MVP awards and has long been one of the league's most prolific passers.

However, things have been different in 2022. Rodgers is missing his former top target Davante Adams, and the offense has started slowly under new offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich.

Rodgers has thrown four touchdowns and two interceptions, while the Packers rank just 27th in points scored. Until/unless things pick up significantly, Rodgers is a matchup-based play.

The matchup for Week 4 isn't good, either. While the New England Patriots are just 1-2 on the season, they've been quite good against the pass. The Patriots rank eighth in passing yards allowed and have surrendered the seventh-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season.

Green Bay should win this game, but Rodgers' ceiling is probably about what we saw from him last week against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The 38-year-old finished that game with 255 yards, two touchdowns and an interception.

While those numbers aren't awful, they're not what managers should hope for as a ceiling. Rodgers managers should ponder alternatives at quarterback this week.

While the Green Bay offense has struggled early in the 2022 season, this doesn't mean that all Packers are poor plays in Week 4. Running back Aaron Jones should be a solid start despite an unfavorable matchup.

New England ranks just 20th against the run, but that ranking is heavily skewed. New England got gashed on the ground last week by Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson—to the tune of 107 yards and a touchdown.

In the Patriots' previous two games, they surrendered a combined 156 rushing yards. New England has surrendered the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs.

Jones, though, should still have a high floor because of his point-per-reception (PPR) value. Jones has caught three passes in every game this season, despite splitting time with AJ Dillon.

Last week against an even better Tampa Bay Buccaneers run defense, Jones caught three passes and tallied 47 scrimmage yards. That's not great, but we'd expect much more this week.

The Patriots are likely to start backup quarterback Brian Hoyer, as starter Mac Jones is dealing with a significant ankle injury. The Patriots offense is likely to struggle, leaving Green Bay protecting a lead for much of the game.

Expect Jones to top 50 rushing yards this week, catch a handful of passes and find the end zone in a low-scoring but relatively lopsided Packers win.

Baltimore running back J.K. Dobbins made his return from last year's torn ACL in Week 3, and he had a decent 2022 debut—though not a good one in fantasy terms.

Dobbins got the start but logged just seven carries or 23 yards. He also caught a pair of passes for 17 yards. That's encouraging, but don't expect a big jump in Week 4.

Dobbins still isn't back to pre-injury form, and he has an ugly matchup with the Buffalo Bills. The Bills rank second in both rushing yards allowed and yards per carry surrendered. They've also allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs.

Additionally, we'd expect Baltimore to try attacking Buffalo through the air. The Bills pass defense is tough, but it recently lost standout safety Micah Hyde to a neck injury. Hyde landed on injured reserve, and Buffalo has also lost cornerback Christian Benford to a broken hand.

This doesn't necessarily mean that Jackson and Co. will find success passing the ball against Buffalo, but managers shouldn't expect Baltimore to lean on the run.

That's bad news for Dobbins managers, as the Ohio State product will split carries with Jackson and Justice Hill anyway. Dobbins may eventually be back to being a reliable starter, but it's not happening this week.

Davante Adams managers may be wary of starting the Las Vegas Raiders receiver after recent comments from ESPN's Dan Orlovsky.

"The defense always tells you where to throw the ball," Orlovsky said on NFL Live (h/t Heavy's Austin Boyd). "The tape tells me ... Derek Carr is purposefully not throwing the ball to Davante Adams."

While this may or may not be true, there has seemed to be a disconnect between Carr and Adams over the last couple of weeks. Adams has caught a combined seven passes for 48 yards.

Adams also faces a daunting challenge against the rival Denver Broncos. No team has allowed fewer fantasy points to opposing receivers this season.

So, why trust Adams this week? There are a couple of reasons. For one, we fully expect an overcorrection from a Raiders team desperate for its first win of the season. Rather than avoiding Adams, we'd expect Carr to force-feed him the football, as he did in Week 1. Adams finished that game with 10 receptions, 141 yards and a touchdown.

Secondly, and this is the big one, Adams has still caught a touchdown pass in every game this season. Even if he isn't consistently getting open for big gains, there's still a high floor here.

Expect Adams to find the end zone once again and to have his best statistical game since the season-opener.

*Fantasy points against from FantasyPros.