SDSU vs. UConn 2023: Odds Advice and Key Player Predictions for Championship
The UConn Huskies have been the most dominant team in the NCAA men's basketball tournament.
Danny Hurley's team is one victory over the San Diego State Aztecs away from finishing one of the best title runs in recent memory.
UConn produced its fifth straight double-digit win on Saturday. The dominance led to UConn being a significant favorite on the point spread for Monday's national championship game.
San Diego State's run to the title game has been dictated by defense and its ability to finish off tight games.
The Aztecs won consecutive one-point games at the free-throw line and on a buzzer beater to reach the title game. The 71-point concession to the Florida Atlantic Owls was their biggest point total allowed in the NCAA tournament.
Brian Dutcher's side can beat UConn with its defensive excellence, but if Monday's contest turns into a high-scoring affair, it may have trouble keeping up with the Huskies.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Point Spread: UConn -7.5
Over/Under: 132
Money Line: UConn (-350; bet $350 to win $100); San Diego State (+290; bet $100 to win $290)
UConn's NCAA tournament dominance resulted in five covers of the point spread.
The Huskies covered a 5.5-point spread on Saturday in their 72-59 win over Miami. Their four previous March Madness spreads were single-digit numbers.
The 7.5-point number for Monday night is the second-highest spread in favor of the Huskies in the NCAA tournament.
UConn is 2-3 to the under, but just one of the totals for its games closed lower than the over/under of 132 points for Monday night. Each of UConn's last two games had over/unders above 145 points.
Monday's over/under is affected by San Diego State's defensive efficiency. The Aztecs are 12-1 to the under in their last 13 games.
SDSU's 72-71 victory over Florida Atlantic marked the first time an Aztecs game went over since February 11.
The Mountain West side is 2-0 against the spread as an underdog in the NCAA tournament. It has been an underdog on the point spread just three times since December 1.
The argument in favor of San Diego State is that its defense could contain UConn, and keep the game in the 50s, or low 60s.
However, UConn's phenomenal showings against Miami and the Gonzaga Bulldogs in the Elite Eight suggest the Huskies are playing their best basketball right now and that they will be incredibly difficult to slow down.
Other betting markets, including player props, are available in certain states. The spread, over/under and money line are available everywhere.
Adama Sanogo has been UConn's leading scorer in three of the five NCAA tournament games.
The junior forward has had at least eight rebounds in each of the five contests, and he earned two straight double-doubles against Miami and Gonzaga.
Sanogo's paint production against Norchad Omier and Drew Timme is a good sign for how he will deal with San Diego State's length in the paint.
The Aztecs have four players in their rotation listed at 6'7" or taller. They could throw a handful of different looks at Sanogo in an attempt to frustrate him.
Despite their size, San Diego State has not had a significant edge in rebounds in its last three games. The Alabama Crimson Tide outrebounded the Aztecs by four in the Sweet 16. SDSU had a one-board edge over FAU and it was tied with the Creighton Bluejays in that category in the Elite Eight.
Those three totals suggest Sanogo could still fare well beneath the rim against SDSU's big men.
Sanogo's decision-making on his shots has been impressive as well. He went 9-for-11 against Miami and the Arkansas Razorbacks and he shot 76.5 percent in the opening-round win over the Iona Gaels.
UConn will turn to Sanogo to gain an advantage in the paint, but he will not be the team's only scoring threat. Jordan Hawkins and Andre Jackson could take over the contest, and that might limit Sanogo's point production.
The Huskies can still win if Sanogo goes for 15 points and eight rebounds, or a stat line similar to that. As long as he plays well on the boards, the Huskies should be in good shape.
Prediction: 15 points, 10 rebounds
San Diego State has a handful of players who can take over the scoring in any game.
Matt Bradley, who scored 21 points on Saturday, is the team's leading scorer at 12.7 points per game. He is the only SDSU player to average double figures in the points column.
That is the perfect stat to represent just hoe spread out the offensive production can be in any SDSU game.
The Aztecs will need Bradley, a senior guard, to be at his best to counter Hawkins and Jackson in the UConn backcourt.
Bradley has four double-digit point performances in six career NCAA tournament games. He had eight combined points against Alabama and Creighton.
SDSU can't afford Bradley to be in foul trouble, like he was against Alabama, or ineffective from the field, like the win over Creighton.
The Mountain West side needs to have all its offensive options on the floor at all times so it can counter UConn in a potentially high-scoring game, or to break free by a few points in a low-scoring affair.
Bradley will likely not produce a high point total. SDSU's leading scorer has had more than 20 points in three of the last 18 games. The top point scorer had 21 points in all three of those occurrences.
Projection: 17 points, three rebounds, two assists
Gambling problem? Call (877-8-HOPENY) or text HOPENY (467369).
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visiting ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-877-770-STOP (7867) (LA), visiting OPGR.org (OR), or calling/texting TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) or 1-888-532-3500 (VA).
Odds and lines subject to change. 21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/LA/MI/NH/NJ/NY/OR/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.
