Realistic MLB Trades That Could Happen In 2022 Offseason

By the end of Sunday, 73.3 percent of Major League Baseball teams will be in offseason mode, drawing up plans for how to make sure they're still playing games in mid-October 2023.

To that end, free agency is generally the preferred method of putting together a roster in the offseason, as teams can control the terms of contracts and don't have to give up players to make additions.

However, offseason trades are common.

In the 2019-20 offseason alone, trades are how the San Diego Padres got Jurickson Profar, Jake Cronenworth and Trent Grisham, how Emmanuel Clase ended up with the Cleveland Guardians, how the Tampa Bay Rays acquired Randy Arozarena and, of course, how Mookie Betts and David Price landed with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

And after looking at various positional surpluses and shortages, we put together seven offseason trades that seem to be mutually beneficial.

St. Louis Cardinals Receive: C Sean Murphy

Oakland Athletics Receive: SS Masyn Winn and RHP Tink Hence

The A's presumably will be more than content to move Murphy this offseason. Shea Langeliers is clearly their future catcher, and their top prospect, Tyler Soderstrom, is capable of playing first base and catcher. It's hard to imagine this low-budget team in the middle of a rebuild will see any point in hanging on to Murphy now that he will be arbitration-eligible and is bound to make much more than $725,000 per year.

The trick is going to be finding a team that needs a catcher badly enough that it is willing to part with a couple of long-term, high-potential prospects.

But the Cardinals might fit the bill.

With Yadier Molina retiring and Andrew Knizner saddled with a career FanGraphs WAR of minus-1.7, bringing in the third-most valuable catcher over the past two seasons—who also won the American League Gold Glove Award in 2021—would be fan-freaking-tastic.

Masyn Winn is the game's No. 51 prospect, according to MLB.com, with Tink Hence checking in at No. 91. Neither 20-year-old's arrival in the big leagues is particularly imminent, though, and St. Louis needs a catcher for 2023.

If the Red Birds don't want to part with Hence, they could throw a good chunk of money Oakland's way instead, especially if Nolan Arenado opts for free agency and they end up paying less than $1 million for top prospect Jordan Walker to man the hot corner as opposed to $35 million for Arenado.

Alternatively, Murphy feels like a great candidate for a three-team deal. Perhaps St. Louis sends one prospect to Oakland and sells high on Jordan Montgomery's strong post-deadline pitching, shipping him and his final pre-free-agency season to a team willing to send the A's a solid prospect.

New York Yankees Receive: RHP Christian McGowan and LHP Braeden Ogle

Philadelphia Phillies Receive: SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa

Similar to Oakland's situation at catcher, the Yankees have an embarrassment of riches at shortstop.

Anthony Volpe (No. 5) and Oswald Peraza (No. 50) rank among MLB.com's top prospects, and they each hit at least 20 home runs this season. In early September, Peraza got called up to the big leagues and hit .306 with a pair of stolen bases in 18 games. And when Peraza got promoted, Volpe took his spot in Triple-A, where he had three home runs and six stolen bases in 21 games.

Either one could be New York's Opening Day starter in 2023 if Kiner-Falefa is no longer in the picture.

IKF has one year of arbitration-eligibility remaining before he will hit free agency. And while he's nowhere near the power hitter (20 career home runs in 534 games) that Peraza and Volpe are, he has a great glove and is a considerably above-average base stealer. Kiner-Falefa could be the solution for a team looking for a one-year stopgap or a long-term solution at shortstop.

Enter: Philadelphia.

Shortstop Didi Gregorius is already gone. Second baseman Jean Segura has a $17 million team option (with a $1 million buyout) for 2023, and with five Phillies already set to make at least $20 million next year, the buyout route seems likely. And that would leave them with Bryson Stott, a bunch of light-hitting utility options (Edmundo Sosa, Nick Maton, Johan Camargo) and a farm system almost devoid of promising middle infielders.

It shouldn't take that much to get Kiner-Falefa, though. A couple of lottery tickets and maybe the ol' future or cash considerations might do the trick.

Arizona Diamondbacks Receive: LHP Trevor Rogers and SS/3B Yiddi Cappe

Miami Marlins Receive: SS Jordan Lawlar

That aforementioned possible three-teamer involving Sean Murphy? Arizona could be the perfect third party. Adding one year of Jordan Montgomery to a roster with basically everyone back in 2023 might be enough for it to make a postseason push.

A long-term pitching solution would be preferable, however, and giving up one of the top prospects in baseball might be worth it.

Lawlar was the No. 6 pick in the 2021 draft. He progressed from Single-A to High-A to Double-A this season, batting .303 with 16 home runs and 39 stolen bases. He might be in the majors as early as next season.

Surely the D-backs are in no rush to give him up—especially after a season in which their primary shortstop, Geraldo Perdomo, batted .195 in 500 plate appearances.

Of course, Perdomo wasn't supposed to be the primary shortstop. Two-time Gold Glove recipient Nick Ahmed missed all but 17 games because of a shoulder injury, and Arizona owes him $10.4 million in 2023. So, there might not be any room at the inn for Lawlar until at least 2024.

Miami's Rogers was also a first-round pick, almost won the National League Rookie of the Year Award in 2021, had reeled off three consecutive quality starts prior to suffering a season-ending strained lat and won't hit free agency until 2027. He could be a strong top-three starter for Arizona for years to come.

And while Cappe's arrival in the majors isn't as imminent as Lawlar's, the just-turned-20-years-old prospect had nine home runs and 13 stolen bases in 67 games this season. Cappe could be a key part of the infield by 2025, if not sooner.

On the Miami side of the equation, it's an obvious move for it to part with at least one of its young pitchers, as the Marlins have more starters under the age of 27 than they can possibly use. And, wow, the thought of Lawlar, Jazz Chisholm Jr. and 2022 first-round pick Jacob Berry forming an infield trio for at least a few years (2024-26? longer?) is enticing.

Cleveland Guardians Receive: 1B C.J. Cron

Colorado Rockies Receive: RHP Tanner Burns and RHP Reny Artiles

Only the Detroit Tigers hit fewer home runs this season (110) than the Guardians (127).

Some of that was by design. Cleveland knew it wouldn't get many four-baggers from Myles Straw or Steven Kwan, but it was willing to pay that price for great defense and plus baserunning.

And the Guardians did rather expect designated hitter Franmil Reyes (30 HR in 2021) and first baseman Bobby Bradley (16 HR in 74 games last season; 163 career HR in the minors) to pick up some of that slack. Suffice it to say, that didn't work out, as Reyes hit nine homers before getting designated for assignment and Bradley made just 17 homerless plate appearances. As a result, Cleveland hit 76 fewer home runs than it did last year.

Assuming that paying nine figures for Aaron Judge isn't on the table, perhaps the Guardians could trade for a slugger.

Cron figures to be well within Cleveland's budget.

He hit 29 home runs this season and has 116 since the beginning of 2018, good for 33rd in the majors. He is owed $7.3 million for next season and will subsequently hit free agency before his age-34 season, so he would probably be a one-year solution.

Because of that, Colorado likely won't be able to get much for him. But heaven knows this franchise needs all the pitching help it can get. Burns has a 3.56 ERA and 10.0 strikeouts per nine innings since Cleveland drafted him in 2020. Artiles had a disastrous 10.99 ERA and 14.4 walks per nine innings in 28.2 frames of Single-A work this season, but maybe the 20-year-old will pan out one day.

Milwaukee Brewers Receive: 2B Justin Foscue

Texas Rangers Receive: RF Hunter Renfroe and RHP Victor Castaneda

Renfroe has hit at least 26 home runs in each of the past five full seasons. Despite playing in fewer than 145 games in each of those years, he is one of just seven players in that club, along with Aaron Judge, Paul Goldschmidt, Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado, Kyle Schwarber and Eugenio Suarez.

For some reason, though, Renfroe and his career .490 slugging percentage have bounced from one team to the next in each of the past three offseasons. And that trend figures to continue.

Per MLB.com, five of the top eight players in the Milwaukee farm system are outfielders, and four—Sal Frelick, Joey Wiemer, Garrett Mitchell and Esteury Ruiz—will be candidates for the Opening Day roster in March.

Christian Yelich certainly isn't going anywhere with his contract, and getting rid of Tyrone Taylor—who won't even reach arbitration eligibility until 2024, let alone free agency until 2027—wouldn't make any sense.

Thus, Renfroe—who made $7.7 million this season and has one season of arbitration eligibility remaining before he will hit free agency—is the clear odd man out.

So, who could use a corner outfielder with pop?

Well, plenty of teams, but especially the Rangers, who brought in Kole Calhoun and Brad Miller in the offseason, only to get a combined minus-3.1 Baseball Reference WAR from them. Making matters worse, they got a grand total of one home run in 181 plate appearances from rookie Bubba Thompson. And after spending as much as they did, a third straight season with more than 90 losses would be a major problem, so they might be a little desperate to win.

For Renfroe and maybe a not-top-tier pitching prospect—Castaneda is 24 with a career 4.57 ERA in the minors—Texas could be willing to part with 2020 first-round pick Justin Foscue. He doesn't exactly have a path to regular playing time with Marcus Semien, Corey Seager and (presumably) Josh Jung holding down second base, shortstop and third base for the foreseeable future, so he might be expendable.

Cincinnati Reds Receive: RHP JR Ritchie and RHP AJ Smith-Shawver

Atlanta Braves Receive: SS Matt McLain

Ever go to an all-you-can-eat buffet, fill up a plate and not realize until you get back to your table that you got, like, five different carbs, one protein and no veggies?

It feels like that happened to the Reds, except instead of carbs, they loaded up on highly touted shortstops and third basemen.

After picking shortstop Matt McLain in the first round of the 2021 draft, Cincinnati went with third basemen Cam Collier and Sal Stewart with the 18th and 32nd picks this year. But then at the trade deadline, it got shortstops Noelvi Marte and Edwin Arroyo in the Luis Castillo deal, third basemen Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand in the Tyler Mahle deal, shortstop Victor Acosta for Brandon Drury and corner infielder Nicholas Northcut for Tommy Pham.

Now, seven of their top eight prospects play short or third, and 13 of the top 28 are infielders.

Conversely, Atlanta has nine pitchers among its top 10 prospects, none of whom ranks in MLB.com's top 100.

To be fair, the Braves shouldn't need a shortstop or third baseman any time soon. They just extended Austin Riley for 10 seasons, and you've got to think Vaughn Grissom is next in line for one of those "you've been great for three months, here's an eight-year, $90 million contract" deals Atlanta loves to give its young hitters.

But a little insurance wouldn't hurt.

As far as which players get exchanged, I threw things at the wall until someone stuck. But the general idea is one of Cincinnati's top-100 infield prospects for two or three of Atlanta's pitching prospects who likely won't be ready to even have a cup of coffee in the big leagues until at least September 2024.

Baltimore Orioles Receive: RHP Pablo López

Miami Marlins Receive: OF Dylan Beavers, LHP Cade Povich and OF Jud Fabian

Listen, Baltimore didn't endure all those losses from 2018 to 2021 just to blow up its farm system at the first sign of competency.

But you've got to strike when the iron is hot, right?

The O's won 83 games this season, even without ace John Means (Tommy John surgery) for all but two starts. Eight different hitters had at least 13 home runs, and with the exception of Rougned Odor, they are all under the age of 29 and under team control or arbitration-eligible through at least the next two seasons.

Baltimore needs starting pitching, though.

Getting Means back (maybe by Opening Day?) will be huge. Same goes for the presumed promotion of the top pitching prospect in baseball, Grayson Rodriguez, who had a 2.20 ERA in 14 Triple-A starts this season. But the Orioles need to add at least one more arm to be taken seriously as candidates for the 2023 postseason.

They could just get a reasonably priced arm via free agency without giving up any prospects, of course. Maybe hope for the best with Sean Manaea after a rough year or try to keep Jameson Taillon or Nathan Eovaldi in the American League East.

But I like Miami as a trade partner.

And no, I didn't forget I already have the Marlins shipping Trevor Rogers to the Diamondbacks. They can get rid of Rogers and López and still have a respectable rotation of Sandy Alcantara, Jesús Luzardo, Braxton Garrett, Edward Cabrera and Elieser Hernandez. They also have prospects Eury Pérez, Max Meyer and the fabled Sixto Sánchez if any part of that quintet wilts.

Who the Marlins don't have is great outfielders, in either MLB or the minors. They hoped to fix that problem by signing Jorge Soler and Avisaíl García in the offseason, but neither one panned out.

The O's probably aren't going to part with the outfielder they picked second overall in 2020 (Heston Kjerstad) nor the one they selected fifth in 2021 (Colton Cowser). But maybe the one they chose 33rd in July?

Beavers alone wouldn't be enough to get López, but he would at least pique the Marlins' interest as the headliner of a small platter of prospects.