Ranking Brewers SP Corbin Burnes' Top 10 Landing Spots amid Trade Rumors
The Milwaukee Brewers don't have to trade Corbin Burnes this winter, but the notion that they might has us speculating about where he might end up.
It was Burnes himself who got the ball rolling on this notion. As the 2021 National League Cy Young Award winner expressed disappointment with the lack of extension talks between him and the Brewers in September, he also made eyebrow-raising remarks about how "anything can happen" and that everyone "might see it this offseason."
More recently, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic have floated Burnes as a legitimate trade candidate. ESPN's Jeff Passan, though, says that the Brewers will not discuss the ace right-hander "with the intent to deal" and that it would take an "astronomical" price to get them to budge.
So, let's start our discussion about Burnes' trade outlook there.
Note: The farm system rankings we'll be referencing are MLB.com's as of Aug. 23, 2022.
Let us begin with a proposition: Corbin Burnes is the best pitcher in Major League Baseball right now.
He's indeed performed as such since he moved into Milwaukee's starting rotation midway through the shortened 2020 season. In 69 starts since Aug. 18 of that year, the Bakersfield, California native has racked up a 2.60 ERA with 541 strikeouts against 98 walks over 412.2 innings. His 14.2 fWAR in this span is the best in the league.
Let's also acknowledge that the 28-year-old Burnes is relatively young and under club control for two more seasons. And even with a projected salary of $11.4 million for 2023 with a raise to follow in 2024, he still figures to be underpaid.
It would, of course, cost substantially more for the Brewers to extend Burnes for the long haul. It's fair to wonder if they're able or willing to do so, which in turn adds some theoretical credence to the trade buzz. If the Brewers are going to sell high on Burnes, the time is now.
The Cincinnati Reds' trade of Luis Castillo, in which they received three of the Seattle Mariners' five best prospects, is a potential model for the Brewers if they trade Burnes. The catch is that the Brewers will surely look to keep their contention window open even if they do a deal, so whatever talent they got would have to be major league-ready.
Let's run through 10 teams that resemble potential buyers in such a trade, ranked according to how well they fit Burnes with relation to need, resources and competitive outlook.
10. Philadelphia Phillies
SP rWAR in 2022: 16.6
Farm System Rank: No. 25
Burnes alongside Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola? That's the stuff of Phillies fans' dreams, and there's surely room for another ace in a rotation that's lost Kyle Gibson and Noah Syndergaard to free agency.
But do the Phillies really need another No. 1 starter? Relative to a shortstop and back-end relievers, it seems more like a nice-to-have. And that's without getting into Burnes' price tag, which seems high enough to call for both Alec Bohm and top prospect Andrew Painter.
9. Boston Red Sox
SP rWAR in 2022: 9.0
Farm System Rank: No. 11
The Red Sox's rotation was a disaster in the latter half of 2022, ranking last in the American League with a 4.97 ERA. It's hard to fathom a better solution than Burnes, and Boston should have enough young talent in its clutches to parlay with Milwaukee.
Yet whether the time is right to trade, say, Brayan Bello or Triston Casas is a good question. The Red Sox are also not without bigger fish to fry, as they need to focus on re-signing Xander Bogaerts and extending Rafael Devers.
8. Houston Astros
SP rWAR in 2022: 17.7
Farm System Rank: No. 29
With Justin Verlander having triggered the opt-out in his contract on Thursday, there's suddenly a Cy Young-sized hole atop Houston's rotation. Pivoting to Burnes would perhaps not only fill it, but would arguably constitute an upgrade.
However, the better odds are surely on the World Series champions simply re-signing Verlander. And even if the 39-year-old ace were to put them in a position to need Burnes, whether the Astros have enough to offer outside of right-hander Hunter Brown is uncertain.
7. New York Yankees
SP rWAR in 2022: 10.6
Farm System Rank: No. 12
Speaking of Verlander, Jon Heyman of the New York Post tabbed the Yankees as a potential fit for him in free agency. They've also been connected to deGrom by Feinsand. If they're truly in the market for that level of ace, well, why not Burnes?
Yet even if the Yankees were to pivot their attention to their starting rotation after hopefully re-signing AL MVP Aaron Judge, one wonders if they'd sooner pay money for a starter rather than trade, say, Gleyber Torres and one of their prized shortstop prospects for Burners.
6. San Francisco Giants
SP rWAR in 2022: 14.0
Farm System Rank: No. 18
The Giants are yet another team that's been mentioned as a fit for high-profile aces. They would like to have Carlos Rodón back, though Feinsand also characterized them as a horse in the race for deGrom. If both get away, they could turn to Burnes as a fallback.
As they're on an uncertain contention timeline, one assumes the Giants wouldn't put prospects like shortstop Marco Luciano or left-hander Kyle Harrison on the line for Burnes unless they had some assurance they would be able to extend him. For what it's worth, whether they have the money to do so doesn't appear to be a question.
SP rWAR in 2022: 10.2
Farm System Rank: No. 28
The Padres making a blockbuster trade? You've heard that one many times before, most recently by way of the megadeal that brought Juan Soto to San Diego on Aug. 2.
The Padres making a blockbuster trade with the Brewers? This, too, is a familiar occurrence. The two teams hooked up in 2019 on a trade involving Trent Grisham, and more recently on a deal headlined by Josh Hader that came a day before the Soto trade.
What could motivate the Padres, last seen in the National League Championship Series, to go back to the Milwaukee well is no great mystery. Though Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and Blake Snell are set atop their rotation, Sean Manaea and Mike Clevinger are free agents.
Ah, but what do the Padres have to offer that would be good enough for the Brewers?
It's a good question. Young catcher Luis Campusano is one piece, but Milwaukee would surely need more. Two-time All-Star infielder Jake Cronenworth and defensive-wiz center fielder José Azócar, maybe, but moving one (or, more likely, both) of them would further diminish what's already iffy depth on the position player side for San Diego.
SP rWAR in 2022: 8.2
Farm System Rank: No. 20
The Blue Jays rotation was a top-heavy affair in 2022, getting a 2.80 ERA out of Alek Manoah, Kevin Gausman and Ross Stripling but posting a 3.89 ERA overall.
Granted, Toronto can hang its hopes on José Berríos bouncing back in 2023. But with Stripling now a free agent and Hyun-Jin Ryu slated to miss most or all of next season recovering from Tommy John surgery, a starter should be on the team's shopping list.
What makes Burnes an especially appealing option is how well the Blue Jays and Brewers line up as trading partners. Milwaukee is short at catcher, which is where Toronto has a surplus it's reportedly expected to trade from:
Alejandro Kirk, who was an All-Star in 2022, or Gabriel Moreno, who went into this season as a top-10 prospect, would figure to be the centerpiece of a deal. If they aren't already, a successful trade would make the Blue Jays the default favorites in the AL East.
Working against the idea, though, is that a No. 1 starter is more of a want in relation to real needs that the Blue Jays have. Namely, for a left-handed hitter and late-inning relievers.
SP rWAR in 2022: 4.9
Farm System Rank: No. 6
The Rangers rotation was pretty dismal apart from All-Star Martín Pérez in 2022, as the other four guys who made at least 10 starts all fell short of a league-average 100 ERA+.
Texas would thus need to prioritize starting pitching this winter even if Pérez wasn't a free agent. Because he is, it's no wonder that starters are the team's top priority:
There are rumblings that the Rangers will be going after the top hurlers on the free-agent market. According to Andy Martino of SNY, deGrom is one of them. Per Heyman, they're also a possible destination for Rodón.
If the Rangers were to make a run at Burnes instead, they'd have to prepare to loosen their grip on their best young players. Say, third baseman Josh Jung, who ranks as MLB.com's No. 36 prospect, and right-hander Jack Leiter, who checks in at No. 45.
Given where the Rangers are on their contention timeline after a 94-loss season, perhaps it's folly to make flesh of such ideas. It's not out of the question, though, that the Rangers could lengthen their time with Burnes by immediately signing him to an extension.
SP rWAR in 2022: 18.7
Farm System Rank: No. 2
It's not much to look at right now, but the Dodgers rotation will be in better shape once they close their reported agreement with longtime ace Clayton Kershaw.
Even then, though, Tyler Anderson and Andrew Heaney will still be afloat on the open market. Factoring in that Walker Buehler is likely to miss all of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery and that there are also durability questions hanging over Tony Gonsolin and Dustin May, Los Angeles' rotation has need of a proper co-ace to pair with Julio Urías.
This could be their excuse to go after deGrom, Verlander or Rodón, but why do that when they could pursue Burnes instead?
They certainly have the young talent to do so, ranging from young catcher Diego Cartaya to more MLB-ready prospects like right-hander Bobby Miller, third baseman Miguel Vargas and second baseman Michael Busch. And while Burnes wouldn't be in line for Mookie Betts money, the Dodgers could nonetheless try for a similar trade-and-sign plan.
Regardless, it's hard to imagine anything that would reaffirm the Dodgers as the ruling power in the NL West as much as Burnes wearing their blue and white threads.
SP rWAR in 2022: 14.7
Farm System Rank: No. 14
Max Scherzer and deGrom mostly lived up to their billing after the latter returned from a lengthy absence with shoulder woes on Aug. 2, combining for a 2.83 ERA over 20 starts down the stretch of the team's 101-win season.
But now deGrom is a free agent, and ditto for fellow starters Chris Bassitt and Taijuan Walker. The Mets rotation is thus down to Scherzer, Carlos Carrasco, Tylor Megill and, well, who really knows after that?
Mets owner Steve Cohen said in August that he was prepared to do "whatever we can" to keep deGrom, but the vibe has shifted since then. As Heyman reported on Monday, the two-time Cy Young Award winner suddenly "seems pretty likely to leave."
If this is the case, then the Mets needed to be eyeing Burnes as a fallback option yesterday. And they wouldn't seem to lack the resources to sway the Brewers. Notably, catcher Francisco Álvarez is MLB.com's No. 1 prospect and he's ready for the majors now.
Better yet, the Mets could subsequently look to give Burnes the Francisco Lindor treatment by locking him up with a very long, very lucrative contract extension.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
