Predicting if Every NHL Team Hits the Over or Under Vegas Total Points Projection
Sticks. Skates. Pucks.
Three words that indicate the calendar's turn to hockey season.
But while it's all about action ramping up on the ice these days, don't think for a moment that folks beyond the benches in 32 NHL arenas this fall aren't getting involved, too.
To that end, the good people at DraftKings have polished off their crystal balls and attached over/under numbers to each team that correspond to the point totals they'll compile across 82 regular-season games from October through April.
And that got the attention of the B/R writing team, which looked at the figures and made a call as to whether each team will hit its assigned number based on its 2021-22 performance and any changes made, positive or negative, as the 2022-23 schedule approaches.
Scroll through to see what we came up with, and drop a thought or two of your own in the comments section.
32. Arizona Coyotes
The Coyotes were near the bottom of the NHL barrel in 2021-22, finishing just two points clear of a Montreal team that was wracked by injuries to key veterans and dismissed both its coach and general manager during the season. Arizona did little to boost morale for 2022-23 and doesn't seem likely to make the nine-point jump it'd take to exceed its number.
DK Point Total: 65.5
B/R Pick: Under
31. Chicago Blackhawks
Speaking of teams that did little to boost fanbase optimism, the Blackhawks traded their leading goal-scorer (Alex DeBrincat) and watched a guy with 62 goals across the last three seasons (Dominik Kubalik) walk as a free agent. Veterans Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews are still in the fold for now, but they probably won't be at season's end.
DK Point Total: 66.5
B/R Pick: Under
30. Montreal Canadiens
It's a dangerous question to ask, but could things really get a lot worse for the Canadiens than they were last season? Injuries, COVID-19 and leadership upheaval were the story of the year, but new coach Martin St. Louis steered a respectable ship down the stretch, and that ought to pique some interest to start. Enough for an 18-point jump? Sign us up.
DK Point Total: 72.5
B/R Pick: Over
29. Philadelphia Flyers
The Flyers were bad last season. Historically bad. They suffered through a series of prolonged losing streaks and were never relevant, which led to a coaching carousel that finally stopped with the hiring of John Tortorella in the offseason. The Stanley Cup winner will make things interesting, for sure. But enough for a 13-point improvement? Probably not.
DK Point Total: 73.5
B/R Pick: Under
28. San Jose Sharks
The Sharks were within shouting distance of .500 last season and finished with a moderately respectable 77 points, but they won't look the same this season now that franchise cornerstone Brent Burns is in Carolina. GM Mike Grier has begun to apply a forward-thinking mindset that may ultimately mean good things, but not yet.
DK Point Total: 75.5
B/R Pick: Under
27. Buffalo Sabres
There's a lot of sports-fan optimism in Buffalo these days, much of it thanks to an elite football team. But the Sabres are certainly a team on the rise after a prolonged stretch of mediocrity. Years of high draft picks have yielded a talented nucleus that's been augmented with serviceable veterans. No Cup run coming, but the needle is pointing up.
DK Point Total: 77.5
B/R Pick: Over
26. Columbus Blue Jackets
The Blue Jackets struck a blow for lower-profile teams in non-traditional hockey markets when they cajoled Johnny Gaudreau into signing the offseason's most discussed free-agent deal. Nevertheless, Columbus was the 10th-best team in a top-heavy Eastern Conference last season and doesn't seem ready for a full-on paradigm shift. Better? Yes. Elite? No.
DK Point Total: 80.5
B/R Pick: Over
25. Anaheim Ducks
The Ducks were an on-ice enigma in 2021-22 with an early-season run that had them in Pacific Division playoff contention by Christmas before a post-New Year collapse that saw them finish 13th in the Western Conference and 23rd overall. The 76-point total included both those chapters, and even a trace of moderation should get them to 81.
DK Point Total: 80.5
B/R Pick: Over
24. Seattle Kraken
The Kraken arrived last season with a proven goaltender and a defensive approach, but the master plan didn't materialize and they skidded to 30th overall while winning fewer than one-third of their games. The offense should begin to catch up, and the goaltending should be better, but the idea of a 23-point jump seems a bit too ambitious.
DK Point Total: 82.5
B/R Pick: Under
23. Detroit Red Wings
On the flip side of the Kraken are the Red Wings. They had their moments last season but weren't consistent enough to contend and ultimately wrapped up with 74 points. GM Steve Yzerman was among the consensus winners of the offseason, though, which makes an 11-point improvement not only possible but expected in the Motor City.
DK Point Total: 84.5
B/R Pick: Over
22. Ottawa Senators
If it seems like it's been a while since "optimism" was the buzzword for an Ottawa hockey season, it has been. But the Senators are smiling from ear to ear after a summer in which they signed veteran playmaker Claude Giroux as a free agent and reeled in both 40-goal man Alex DeBrincat and goalie Cam Talbot in trades. Pierre Dorion for prime minister!
DK Point Total: 86.5
B/R Pick: Over
21. Winnipeg Jets
Wagering types could go out of business forecasting teams like the Jets, who were as deep and skilled as any roster in the league while reaching the postseason's final eight in 2020-21 before missing the tournament entirely in 2021-22. Much of the roster remains intact, and a new coach arrives in Rick Bowness, which could translate to an uptick if the players buy in.
DK Point Total: 87.5
B/R Pick: Over
20. New Jersey Devils
The Devils have been ambitious the last few seasons while trying to return to relevance as well, signing Dougie Hamilton as a free agent prior to last season and grabbing dual-Cup winner Ondrej Palat from Tampa Bay this time around. They could be the best of the Metropolitan teams to miss the playoffs, but 27 points better than 2021-22 seems high.
DK Point Total: 89.5
B/R Pick: Under
19. New York Islanders
The Islanders arrived to 2021-22 as back-to-back final-four participants with a high-end coach (Barry Trotz) and a new arena on the way. But it all went wrong after a 13-game road sojourn to start the season was followed by injuries and recurring COVID-19 issues. A late push got them to 84 points, and a four-win boost from that tumult seems a sound suggestion.
DK Point Total: 91.5
B/R Pick: Over
18. Vancouver Canucks
The Canucks were another of the tale-of-two-teams situations before and after the dismissal of Travis Green as head coach. Vancouver was 8-15-2 to start the season under Green and 32-15-10 after the arrival of Bruce Boudreau. They wound up with 92 points, got within five points of a playoff spot and should be there or better with a stable, full season.
DK Point Total: 92.5
B/R Pick: Over
17. St. Louis Blues
The Blues are the first team on the list that was in the playoffs last season, and they were a popular dark-horse pick to make a run after compiling 109 points. The run wound up ending in the second round against Colorado, and the offseason saw David Perron and Ville Husso among the players heading elsewhere. It's a steep drop to 95 points but not out of bounds.
DK Point Total: 95.5
B/R Pick: Under
16. Los Angeles Kings
Based on projected point totals, it'll be a coin flip between the Kings and Blues to grab the final Western playoff position. Momentum seems to favor Los Angeles, which emerged as a surprise team to reach the tournament and had a 3-2 lead on Edmonton before falling in seven games. That was after a 99-point season. This year should be better.
DK Point Total: 95.5
B/R Pick: Over
15. Dallas Stars
The Stars are one of those teams that is always in the mix. They snatched the second-to-last available playoff spot last season after compiling 98 points. Peter DeBoer takes charge behind the bench this time around, and he's got an emerging goaltending star in Jake Oettinger to solidify things. All things considered, they're about what they were in 2021-22.
DK Point Total: 95.5
B/R Pick: Over
14. Washington Capitals
Meanwhile, the Capitals feel like one of those teams that could be vulnerable if the Eastern Conference experiences any sort of playoff churn. Washington was the No. 8 seed with exactly 100 points last season, and it's a year further away from 2017-18's championship. Eviction from the postseason might be a stretch, but a slight dip isn't unreasonable.
DK Point Total: 96.5
B/R Pick: Under
13. Vegas Golden Knights
It was unprecedented since their arrival, but the playoffs did indeed go on without the Golden Knights' participation. Peter DeBoer was dismissed as coach and replaced by Bruce Cassidy, who inherits a full season from Jack Eichel but will have a huge hole to fill in net with the season-long absence of Robin Lehner after he underwent hip surgery. The second seems more meaningful.
DK Point Total: 96.5
B/R Pick: Under
12. Nashville Predators
Like the Capitals before them, the Predators seem to be a Western team at risk of losing its spot if one of last year's rabble climbs the ladder. Re-signing Filip Forsberg checked off GM David Poile's top-priority box, and having Roman Josi on the blue line is certainly an asset as well. But if you list the conference's top eight, it's just as easy to leave the Predators out as it is to keep them in.
DK Point Total: 96.5
B/R Pick: Under
11. Boston Bruins
Anyone else sensing a theme here? Boston is a team for which the phrase "title window" and the question "Is it closing?" tend to run in tandem. The Bruins racked up 107 points to finish fourth in a brutally tough Atlantic Division last season, but they're also riddled with injuries and age heading into 2022-23. An 11-point drop is precipitous but not out of the question.
DK Point Total: 96.5
B/R Pick: Under
10. New York Rangers
The Rangers were six points off Carolina's pace (116 to 110) in the Metropolitan Division last season but pushed past the Hurricanes all the way to Game 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals and bring back all the relevant pieces, including Vezina winner Igor Shesterkin. The over/under number would put them third in the division with a double-digit drop. Won't happen.
DK Point Total: 99.5
B/R Pick: Over
9. Pittsburgh Penguins
Speaking of the Rangers, the team that's forecast to unseat them in the Metropolitan's No. 2 spot is Pittsburgh, based on its 101.5 over/under number. The Penguins held on to Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang and kept the band together, but a one-win (or more) drop from a 103-point performance last season seems more likely than an uptick for a classic rock act.
DK Point Total: 101.5
B/R Pick: Under
8. Minnesota Wild
The Wild were another intriguing Western pick last spring on the way to a 113-point finish, but they quickly flamed out in the playoffs. Then, an offseason came in which Kevin Fiala was unloaded to Los Angeles for salary-cap reasons and Cam Talbot left when Marc-Andre Fleury re-signed. Getting back to triple digits isn't impossible, but it seems like a big ask.
DK Point Total: 101.5
B/R Pick: Under
7. Carolina Hurricanes
The Hurricanes are projected as repeat winners in the Metropolitan based on their over/under number, even though it's only good for seventh overall in the league and down double digits from 2021-22. They seemed on their way to a Cup final before crumbling against the Rangers but added Brent Burns and Max Pacioretty to an already prodigious group. Buy.
DK Point Total: 102.5
B/R Pick: Over
6. Tampa Bay Lightning
The Lightning made their third straight championship series and gave Colorado a push before ultimately succumbing in six games, and then experienced the routine exodus of players that included Ondrej Palat and Ryan McDonagh. GM Julien BriseBois locked up several youngsters to long-term deals, though, and it's hard to imagine Tampa Bay falling too much.
DK Point Total: 103.5
B/R Pick: Over
5. Edmonton Oilers
The Oilers started fast, imploded for two months and regained footing late on the way to a Western Conference title series with Colorado. Coach Jay Woodcroft replaced Dave Tippett in February and never looked back, and he'll have a full season with newly extended Evander Kane on Connor McDavid's wing and newly signed Jack Campbell in net.
DK Point Total: 103.5
B/R Pick: Over
4. Calgary Flames
Edmonton's return to relevance made the Battle of Alberta a legitimate entity for the first time in a generation, and though the Flames appeared to lose ground when Johnny Gaudreau left and Matthew Tkachuk was dealt, they quickly regained it with Jonathan Huberdeau as a return from Florida in the Tkachuk deal and Nazem Kadri as a signee from Colorado. Kudos to GM Brad Treliving.
DK Point Total: 103.5
B/R Pick: Over
3. Florida Panthers
The Panthers went all-in last spring when they traded for Claude Giroux and Ben Chiarot, and the Presidents' Trophy they earned seemed like a prelude to a deep playoff run. Until it wasn't. Now, Giroux and Chiarot are gone, and it'll be up to Matthew Tkachuk to replace the 115 points that Huberdeau took with him to Calgary. Hard to envision a No. 3 overall finish this time.
DK Point Total: 105.5
B/R Pick: Under
2. Toronto Maple Leafs
Ahhh...the Maple Leafs. It's hard to invent new angles to describe the angst in what's perhaps the league's most hockey-mad town. No titles since 1967. No playoff series wins since 2004. A cycle of breathtaking disappointments, including last spring's seven-game loss to the Lightning. But they're loaded. And if the goaltending is good, maybe this is the year.
DK Point Total: 108.5
B/R Pick: Over
1. Colorado Avalanche
There's loaded. And then there's Colorado loaded. The Avalanche had a much less prolonged series of postseason fails before breaking through last season, and they return as talented a roster as the league can muster. A nagging question in goal won't be answered until Alexandar Georgiev proves he can handle a No. 1 load, but they'll still be elite no matter what.
DK Point Total: 111.5
B/R Pick: Over
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