Pac-12 realignment, expansion: Demise, collapse of conference to Big Ten, Big 12 predicted

Is doomsday coming for the Pac-12?

Some recent stories paint a bleak picture about the future of the conference after reports that the Big Ten could pursue more Pac-12 schools in conference expansion and that other universities in the conference could leave for the Big 12 in the realignment aftermath.

Check out what college writers are saying about the Pac-12 and its long-term viability as a conference.

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The Pac-12 Conference is done

Pete Mundo of Heartland College Sports writes: "It’s over. The Pac-12 is done. And if you’re Colorado, you have to know this feeling all too well. One of the reasons the Buffaloes bolted the Big 12 was because they were concerned that if the Big 12 collapsed, they had no partner in the league to leave with. They were alone on an island. Well, Colorado is essentially back there again. And while some in the Colorado administration may view the Big 12 as a JUCO league, the reality is that they would be lucky to get back into the conference at this point. I believe they should be welcomed back in with open arms, and if Arizona, Arizona State and Utah are smart, they will also start looking east. At this point, the only benefit to the four corner schools to not leave the Big 12 is to not get the blame for ultimately sinking the Pac-12."

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Pac-12 could be eliminated with defections to other conferences

Brett McMurphy said on the Paul Finebaum Show: "It wasn't too long ago we had the six [automatic qualifying] conferences. The so-called power conferences back then. The Big East was one of those six and what happened, they got raided by the ACC and now we're left at the Power Five. The same thing I think unfortunately is going to happen with the Pac-12. They're going to lose four schools to the Big Ten. And then I think four schools out of Pac-12, the Arizona schools, Utah and Colorado, take a lifeline to go to the Big 12. Then there's no more Pac-12 and then we'll be left with four power conferences. Although realistically there's only two."

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Can the Pac-12 survive a mass exodus?

Outkick's David Hookstead writes: "Will the PAC-12 exist in a few years? This question is being kicked around more and more as reports grow the Big Ten intends to poach many more teams and most survivors will flee for the Big 12. Currently, USC and UCLA are set to join the B1G in 2024. Initially, it looked like the PAC-12 and commissioner George Kliavkoff had stopped the immediate bleeding and the conference might hold. Granted, it looked like it would hold as a weak shell of itself but hold nonetheless."

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Passing blame for potential collapse of Pac-12

Heartland College Sports' Pete Mundo writes: "There are three parties to blame for the Pac-12’s eventual collapse: The Big Ten, USC and UCLA. That’s it. His anger at the Big 12 has always been misplaced and foolish. When the obituary for the Pac-12 is written, the Big 12 may get a footnote about being the final nail in the coffin, but the actual being of the Pac-12 was dead long before that. And where Colorado, Arizona, Arizona State and Utah end up in the obituary remains to be seen. But they will be able to write their way out of it, if they so choose."

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Oregon's decision could have domino effect in Pac-12, college football

Marshall Scott of Pistols Firing writes: "It’s hard to imagine, if given the option, Oregon would choose the Big 12 over the Big Ten (just look at this TV deal), but if the Ducks were to fly to the Big Ten, the domino effect could push the Arizona schools, Utah and Colorado further into discussions with the Big 12. ... So, though Oregon might be more likely to go to the Big Ten than the Big 12 at this time, the next set of tumbling dominoes could be coming soon."

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Pac-12 Conference hanging by a thread

Sports Illustrated's Kevin Borba writes: "All of this is occurring as the Pac-12 is still in the midst of their media rights negotiations, but if they lose one more school you could very well kiss the conference goodbye. Not only are there Pac-12 schools on the radar of the Big Ten, but schools such as Arizona, Utah, Colorado and Arizona State have all generated interest from the Big 12. The Big Ten continues to be on the offensive side and surging towards 20 teams, while the Pac-12 who is familiar with the tail in-between their legs position is on some sort of defense."

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Pac-12 is vulnerable to further poaching

Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News wrote: "But the Pac-12 and ACC are vulnerable to future poaching, the former more than the latter: With a grant-of-rights agreement that extends into the mid-2030s, the ACC is better defended against raids by the Big Ten and SEC; the Pac-12’s grant of rights deal expires in two years. (That said, we believe North Carolina, Virginia and Georgia Tech could be on the Big Ten’s radar in the future based on a combination of academic clout, media value, and recruiting pipelines.) The current situation is unprecedented. Every utterance from the Big Ten about further expansion, whether it’s a pronouncement by commissioner Kevin Warren or an anonymous source, is taken as an immediate threat to the Pac-12’s survival."

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Oregon report not good for future of Pac-12 conference

Outkick's David Hookstead writes: "If Oregon does officially jump ship for the Big Ten, the PAC-12 is in serious trouble. As I’ve speculated before, the only thing holding the conference together at this point is Washington and Oregon holding steady. Once one or both of those programs leave, the race will be on for the lifeboats. Schools will be scrambling for safe landing spot as the PAC-12 breaks up, and many of them will likely end up in the Big 12 as the premier teams go to the Big Ten. Once the first domino falls, fans will almost certainly see the PAC-12 collapse in a very short period of time. We’re in a truly unprecedented era of college football, and anyone who says with complete certainty they know what is going to happen is lying or delusional. All we know right now is Oregon and the Big Ten are having serious conversations, and that should have the rest of the PAC-12 panicking."

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How long can the Pac-12 remain intact?

Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News writes: "Four things can be equally true: The Big Ten’s contract can contain a huge escalator clause to account for expansion … And Oregon representatives can be talking to the Big Ten … And the Four Corners schools can view the Big 12 as a viable option … And the Pac-12 can remain intact for the foreseeable future. From our vantage point, nothing has changed for the Pac-12 in the two weeks since news broke that ESPN would not participate in the Big Ten’s next media rights contract, which begins next summer. In theory, that was a positive development for the beleaguered conference: Lacking Big Ten content across its networks, Disney seemingly would be motivated to partner with the Pac-12."

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Pac-12's future hangs in the balance

CBS Sports' Dennis Dodd wrote: Separate from any Big Ten discussion, ESPN now has a chance to become somewhat of a "kingmaker" regarding these leagues. Each conference is eying the other's schools in what could become the next big realignment story. Without a Big Ten deal, ESPN has theoretically freed up money to spend as both conferences are currently in flux. The Pac-12 is desirable because ESPN would not otherwise have any games in the valuable "fourth window" -- after 10 p.m. ET. The "Pac-12 After Dark" tag has been ridiculed by some, but it would be valuable to ESPN. Taken to the extreme, it's worth asking: Would ESPN now have an influence over which league survives this round of realignment? There is already word circulating that the Pac-12 -- in the middle of its own media rights negotiations -- might have to agree to a media rights contract that allows Cal, Oregon Stanford and Washington an "out" if approached by another conference."

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Odds for a Pac-12 Conference collapse

Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News answered a question about the odds of the Pac-12 potentially collapsing if Stanford, Cal, Washington and Oregon left for the Big Ten.

He wrote: "100 percent. In that scenario, a total of six schools would be headed to the Big Ten, and the Four Corners (Arizona, ASU, Colorado and Utah) would undoubtedly leave for the Big 12. Sure, the conference could reform with Oregon State, Washington State and a slew of Mountain West schools, but it would be the Pac-12 in name only."

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Reach Jeremy Cluff at jeremy.cluff@arizonarepublic.com. Follow him on Twitter @Jeremy_Cluff.

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This article originally appeared on Arizona Republic: Pac-12 collapse predicted amid Big Ten, Big 12 expansion, realignment