MLB World Series 2022 Odds: Breaking Down Chances of Final 8 Teams
Of the eight teams remaining in the 2022 Major League Baseball postseason, who is best suited to win 11 more games and a World Series title?
After a wild-card round featuring two highly improbable comebacks by a road team (Philadelphia's six-run ninth inning; Seattle's erasure of an 8-1 deficit), a game with 39 strikeouts before a run was finally scored in the 15th inning and Max Scherzer getting lit up for four home runs, goodness only knows what to expect the rest of the way.
But we've broken down the chances of each of the eight remaining teams, evaluating them in five categories: hitting, baserunning, fielding, starting pitching and relief pitching.
A score was assigned to each of the five categories, with 10 being the highest. Those five numbers were then combined for an overall score capped at 50. The higher the overall score, the more well-rounded the team is and the more likely it is to win it all.
DraftKings World Series odds are listed at the top of each team's section, but teams are presented in ascending order of overall score.
World Series Odds: +1000
Hitting: 7.8/10
You wouldn't know it from the 17 runs they scored against the Mets, including Trent Grisham clubbing home runs off both Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom, but the Padres had, by far, the least-productive regular-season offense among the six NL teams to make the postseason. I mean, we all thought for a few days there in early August—after they traded for Juan Soto, Josh Bell and Brandon Drury, but before Fernando Tatis Jr. was suspended for the rest of the season—that they were about to finally go on a tear. However, this team is liable to get shut out on any night Manny Machado has an O-fer at the dish.
Baserunning: 7.9/10
The Padres only officially registered 71 stolen-base attempts during the regular season, and they got thrown out on 22 of them. And, unfortunately, they traded Esteury Ruiz and his 85 minor-league stolen bases in 2022 to the Brewers, so they no longer even have one of those ultra-valuable-in-October speedsters to put on the roster solely for pinch-running. Machado and Ha-Seong Kim can run on occasion, but there's just not much for opponents to worry about here.
Fielding: 8.5/10
The Padres are at least better than average on defense. The Kim and Machado half of the infield is quite strong, and Jake Cronenworth is no slouch at second base. They also have plus range from Trent Grisham in center field. What they don't have, though, is a strong catcher. San Diego ranked last in the majors with a 13 percent caught-stealing rate and would have also ranked last in passed balls (13) if the White Sox hadn't had 15 of them. Good thing Austin Nola at least bats .251 to make up for it a bit.
Starting Pitching: 8.9/10
Here's where San Diego at least has a fighting chance against anyone, as demonstrated in the wild-card round. Blake Snell got a little walk-happy in Game 2, but he, Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove have been solid all season, especially in the second half for both Snell and Darvish. And if there were any concerns about Musgrove, he silenced those with seven one-hit innings in the win-or-go-home Game 3. As far as a fourth starter is concerned, though, that might not be pretty. Both Mike Clevinger and Sean Manaea have really struggled over the past few months.
Relief Pitching: 9.1/10
The score here really depends on your trust level with Josh Hader. He was a disaster from July 4 through August 28, but he had an 0.79 ERA down the stretch and ensured there was no late drama at the end of Game 3 in New York. If he's back to his usual level of dominance, the Padres have a great bullpen situation with Hader as the anchor to Robert Suarez, Luis García and converted-starter Nick Martinez.
Overall Score: 42.2/50
World Series Odds: +1100
Hitting: 9.3/10
The Phillies have this season's best hitting catcher (J.T. Realmuto), this season's best home run hitter not named Aaron Judge (Kyle Schwarber), an even better slugger who missed nearly half the season (Bryce Harper) and a first baseman who quietly hit 30 homers (Rhys Hoskins). The production drops off in a hurry after that top four. However, there's not a single black hole in the lineup, and Brandon Marsh, Alec Bohm and Jean Segura each hit better than .275 with the occasional round-tripper.
Baserunning: 9.1/10
Realmuto led the way with 21 stolen bases, but a total of seven Phillies swiped at least seven bags this season. They also have a solid pinch runner in Edmundo Sosa, who stole three bases in just 25 games after coming over from St. Louis. They didn't do any running against Yadier Molina and the Cardinals in the wild-card round, but maybe that changes in the NLDS against Atlanta.
Fielding: 7.6/10
Let's just say the Phillies aren't paying Schwarber and Nick Castellanos all that money because of their nifty glovework. Those corner outfielders have been dreadful, not in terms of errors (Schwarber had one, Castellanos had none) but in terms of range when it comes to tracking down fly balls or cutting off grounders before they get to the wall for extra bases. Hoskins has also had a brutal season at first base, "leading" the majors with 12 errors.
Starting Pitching: 8.8/10
Even with the aforementioned woeful defense, Zack Wheeler had a 2.82 ERA in 26 regular-season starts before going 6.1 scoreless innings in Game 1 against the Cardinals. Aaron Nola's ERA was 3.25, and he took it one step further with 6.2 scoreless innings in Game 2. That duo plus Ranger Suárez (2.95 ERA since mid-July) can at least hold its own against the top three in just about any other rotation. The No. 4 starter, though—be it Bailey Falter, Noah Syndergaard or Kyle Gibson—could be a real adventure, though.
Relief Pitching: 7.7/10
A dozen pitchers logged at least a dozen innings of relief for the Phillies this season, and the best ERA of the bunch was David Robertson at 2.70. They did at least get some great work out of José Alvarado down the stretch with a 0.43 ERA and a 15.2 K/9 in his final 21 innings of the regular season. But he then allowed the two-run home run to Juan Yepez in Game 1 in St. Louis, so we'll see if he can rally. Zach Eflin's starter-to-closer transition remains a fascinating move that the Phillies have made out of necessity.
Overall Score: 42.5/50
World Series Odds: +1300
Hitting: 8.5/10
Batting average is not Seattle's forte. Ty France was a .355 hitter 50 games into the season, but he hit .232 the rest of the way and still finished 20 points ahead of everyone not named Julio Rodríguez. But France, Rodríguez, Cal Raleigh and Eugenio Suárez did each reach 20 home runs for a Mariners squad that finished middle of the MLB pack in slugging percentage.
Baserunning: 8.1/10
The M's have a pair of potent base-stealers in Rodríguez (25) and Dylan Moore (21). Sam Haggerty and Adam Frazier will also get the occasional swipe. And if Jarred Kelenic remains on the roster into the ALDS, he had five stolen bases during the regular season and could be a good option as a pinch runner. As a whole, though, Seattle hasn't been great about taking extra bases and was pretty much the definition of league average in stolen bases/attempts.
Fielding: 8.6/10
Much like baserunning, Seattle is modestly above average in the field. Save for maybe France at first base, no Mariner is likely to be named a finalist for a Gold Glove, and Jesse Winker in left field is the only particularly problematic fielder of the bunch. On the plus side, they committed a total of 69 errors during the regular season, good for fewest in the AL.
Starting Pitching: 8.4/10
Since trading for Luis Castillo, Seattle's starting pitching has been better. Not outstanding, but better. Castillo has given them a 3.17 ERA, and since the beginning of August, Robbie Ray and George Kirby have contributed a 2.98 and 3.18 ERA, respectively. However, Logan Gilbert has had a handful of duds over the past two-plus months, and Marco Gonzales didn't make a single scoreless appearances in 32 starts this season. It's a good rotation compared to those squads that didn't make the playoffs, but it's arguably the worst among the eight remaining teams.
Relief Pitching: 9.2/10
Trading for Castillo also made Seattle's bullpen better, as it bumped Chris Flexen to a relief role, where he has a 1.62 ERA. The M's also traded for Matthew Boyd, who has a 1.35 ERA in Seattle. Meanwhile, Andrés Muñoz has been lights-out lately, and both Erik Swanson and Matt Brash have made at least 25 appearances since the beginning of August with a sub-2.50 ERA. This bullpen loaded with the furthest thing from household names has become Seattle's second-biggest strength behind Rodríguez, Suárez and the Big Dumper clubbing home runs.
Overall Score: 42.8/50
World Series Odds: +1800
Hitting: 7.9/10
There's not much power in this lineup. José Ramírez led the way with 29 home runs. Josh Naylor (20) and Andrés Giménez (17) were the only other Guardians to at least reach a dozen. But they did hit .254 as a team and strike out less often than any other team in the majors. They can manufacture runs better than they showed Friday and Saturday.
Baserunning: 9.5/10
Speaking of manufacturing runs, five different Guardians—Ramírez, Giménez, Myles Straw, Steven Kwan and Amed Rosario—stole at least 18 bases this season. No other team had at least four players reach that plateau, so that's an impressive quintet. The reason Cleveland gets a 9.5 instead of a 10, though, is the complete lack of a pinch runner to worry about. Ernie Clement led the team in pinch-running appearances with 14 of them before he was released, and he went 0-for-1 in stolen base attempts. So they need one of those five runners to get himself on base in order to make any impact with their speed.
Fielding: 9.8/10
Defense is the name of the game for Cleveland. Straw didn't homer all season, but he should win a Gold Glove for his work in center field. Similarly, Austin Hedges provides basically nothing on offense but rates as one of the better defensive catchers in the league. And then both Giménez and Ramírez are huge assets on defense in addition to being Cleveland's two best hitters.
Starting Pitching: 8.7/10
The one-two punch of Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie is rock solid, as demonstrated in the two wins over Tampa Bay. And Cal Quantrill has been every bit as good of late, going 9-0 with a 2.94 ERA since the All-Star Break. The big key for all three (and No. 4 starter Aaron Civale) has been keeping walks to a minimum and trusting this defense to do its job. As long as they continue doing that, they'll be in good shape.
Relief Pitching: 9.6/10
Closer Emmanuel Clase has been sensational over the past two seasons, but this bullpen is no one-trick pony. In Trevor Stephan, Sam Hentges, Enyel De Los Santos and James Karinchak, the Guardians have four relievers who averaged better than 10 K/9 with an ERA in the 2.05-3.05 range during the regular season. And in the wild-card round against the Rays, this bullpen went 10.1 scoreless innings, allowing four hits and three walks with 13 strikeouts. Not too shabby.
Overall Score: 45.5/50
World Series Odds: +500
Hitting: 9.1/10
For as much as we've been told over the past three months that the Yankees offense is Aaron Judge or bust, they'd still rank top-10 in the majors in home runs even if you completely removed his 62. Anthony Rizzo hit 32. Giancarlo Stanton got 31. Gleyber Torres had 24. And the catching tandem of Jose Trevino and Kyle Higashioka ended up with 21. There's a good amount of power here. The real problem is that their non-Judge OBP is .311, so 58 percent of their MLB-best 254 home runs were solo shots.
Baserunning: 8.2/10
The Yankees were one of the worst baserunning teams in 2021, but they've gotten considerably better in that department despite parting ways with last year's leader in stolen bases, Tyler Wade. For starters, Judge has been running a lot more, going 16-for-19 in stolen base attempts. Getting Isiah Kiner-Falefa (22 SB) from Texas more than replaced Wade's contributions as a base-stealer. And assuming Tim Locastro makes the postseason roster almost exclusively to serve as a pinch runner, he's a major X-factor.
Fielding: 10/10
I won't pretend to know how FanGraphs calculates its defense ratings, but both on the Fielding tab and in the Defense column of its Batting tab, the Yankees led the majors this season. Baseball Reference also gives them a team-wide dWAR of 7.2, compared to 3.7 for Los Angeles, 2.6 for Houston and 0.9 for Atlanta. So, I'm inclined to believe my eyes that see this as an excellent defense led by shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa and catcher Jose Trevino. Aaron Hicks is also a plus defender in the outfield, which kept him in the regular lineup even as he was slugging .250 into June.
Starting Pitching: 8.6/10
Of the four teams that received a first-round bye, there's no question that New York has the iffiest starting rotation. Nestor Cortes has been great, and Luis Severino has been solid when healthy, even throwing seven no-hit innings in his final start of the regular season. But Gerrit Cole has a 4.01 ERA with just one scoreless outing in his last 15 starts, and Jameson Taillon has a 4.76 ERA in 19 starts dating back to late June. If they get past Cleveland in the ALDS, this is where the Yankees figure to be at a disadvantage the rest of the way.
Relief Pitching: 9.3/10
Overall, New York has gotten a 2.97 ERA from its bullpen, with Lou Trivino's 1.66 ERA since coming over from Oakland (where he had a 6.47 ERA this season) an intriguing surprise. But like the Dodgers, despite great team-wide relief numbers, the closer spot is a great big unknown, likely to be a matchups-based situation where Scott Effross, Jonathan Loaisiga and Clay Holmes all factor into the ninth-inning mix. The Yankees have had seven different pitchers record at least one save since the All-Star Break, but none more than four. (And none of the seven were Aroldis Chapman, who was left off the ALDS roster, for what it's worth.)
Overall Score: 45.2/50
World Series Odds: +380
Hitting: 8.9/10
The primary quintet of Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman, Jeremy Peña and Kyle Tucker is mighty fine. All five batted at least .250 with at least 22 home runs, making Houston and Toronto (four) the only teams in the majors with at least three such qualified hitters this season. Chas McCormick and Aledmys Díaz haven't been too shabby when they get starts, either. But first base (be it Yuli Gurriel or Trey Mancini) and catcher (be it Martín Maldonado or Christian Vázquez) have been black holes in the order, especially since the All-Star Break.
Baserunning: 7.9/10
Tucker and Peña are both solid baserunners. The former steals more bags (25), but the latter rarely makes mistakes and does a good job of taking extra bases when possible. And while Altuve doesn't steal like he used to from 2012 through 2017, he did go 18-for-19 this season and remains a serious threat. Not much else to worry about, though, and some of the Astros look like they're running the bases in ankle weights.
Fielding: 9.4/10
Peña racked up 19 errors at shortstop, but he did so with impressive range and a strong overall defensive rating. Maldonado might be the best defensive backstop in the majors. Bregman or Toronto's Matt Chapman will probably win the Gold Glove among AL third basemen. And as a whole, the Astros rank fourth in the majors in defense, per FanGraphs, closer to the No. 1 Yankees than they are to the No. 5 Guardians.
Starting Pitching: 10/10
The Astros were already loaded with quality starting pitching, but they've been on another level since getting Lance McCullers Jr. back in mid-August. They now have four starters with a sub-3.00 ERA in McCullers (2.27), Cristian Javier (2.54), MLB's leader in quality starts Framber Valdez (2.82) and likely AL Cy Young winner Justin Verlander (1.75). And if they need to go five deep at any point, Luis Garcia (3.72 ERA, 9.0 K/9) is certainly no slouch.
Relief Pitching: 9.7/10
Overall, Houston relievers have a 2.80 ERA, best in the majors. They also have a 10.45 K/9 that ranks No. 1. Both Ryan Pressly (33 saves) and Rafael Montero (14 saves) can be called upon to get the final few outs. Ryne Stanek (1.15 ERA) and Bryan Abreu (1.94 ERA) have been mostly untouchable in middle relief, too.
Overall Score: 45.9/50
World Series Odds: +500
Hitting: 9.8/10
They might not have Ozzie Albies (finger) available at second base, at least for the NLDS. Left field has been a season-long adventure in Atlanta, too. But the Braves have two certified sluggers in Austin Riley and Matt Olson, as well as five others (Dansby Swanson, William Contreras, Michael Harris II, Travis d'Arnaud and Ronald Acuña Jr.) who batted at least .266 and hit at least 15 home runs. Throw in Vaughn Grissom's .291 average in 41 games played and Eddie Rosario batting .315 since September 11 and this is arguably the strongest starting nine at the dish.
Baserunning: 9.3/10
Atlanta has taken the "stars and scrubs" fantasy approach to its baserunning. Acuña and Harris are two of the best in the majors, boasting 29 and 20 stolen bases, respectively, despite both playing in fewer than 120 games. Swanson is also a plus on the basepaths with a career-best 18 swipes this season. But the big key here is that Atlanta took extra bases (going first to third on a single; scoring from first on a double) at the highest rate in the majors.
Fielding: 8.3/10
Swanson is a strong candidate for a Gold Glove at shortstop, Harris has been great in center, and you could do a whole lot worse than Riley at the hot corner. As a whole, though, FanGraphs rated Atlanta's regular-season defense slightly below average and 11th out of the 12 teams that made the playoffs (ahead of only Philadelphia). It's mostly because outfielders not named Harris have been mediocre, at best.
Starting Pitching: 9.1/10 with Spencer Strider; 8.2/10 without Strider
Strider last pitched on Sept. 18 because of a side/oblique injury and is questionable for the NLDS because of it. Even without him, Atlanta might be fine. Max Fried has had an exceptional season and would arguably be the NL Cy Young front-runner were it not for Sandy Alcantara. Kyle Wright has also been solid. And after a rough first two months, Charlie Morton has delivered a 3.63 ERA over his last 19 starts. But having the mustachioed rookie strikeout machine would elevate Atlanta's starting rotation from a C+ to an A-.
Relief Pitching: 9.5/10
Atlanta fans don't have much faith in closer Kenley Jansen's NL-best 41 saves, as he got there with a 3.38 ERA, allowing a few too many walks and home runs. But the combined force of Jansen, Raisel Iglesias, A.J. Minter, Collin McHugh, Dylan Lee and Jesse Chavez has been doggone impressive
Overall Score: 46.0/50 with Strider; 45.1/50 without Strider
World Series Odds: +310
Hitting: 10/10
Mookie Betts, Trea Turner and Freddie Freeman atop the order is a murderer's row for opposing pitchers. And it's not like the Dodgers relent much from there. Of the 11 Dodgers to make at least 200 plate appearances, nine had an on-base percentage north of .320. Even the two exceptions to the rule (Cody Bellinger and Chris Taylor) each got to double digits in home runs and stolen bases. Not only is the starting nine great, but they'll have multiple legitimate hitters available off the bench.
Baserunning: 9.5/10
With a run differential of plus-334 on the season, Los Angeles didn't have much reason to get aggressive on the basepaths. Still, five Dodgers—Trea Turner (27), Cody Bellinger (14), Freddie Freeman (13), Mookie Betts (12) and Chris Taylor (10)—reached double digits in stolen bases. Gavin Lux and Trayce Thompson also have decent speed. And if rookie Miguel Vargas makes the postseason roster, he had 16 stolen bases at Triple-A this season and would probably be their primary pinch runner.
Fielding: 9.3/10
Both Austin Barnes and Will Smith are strong behind the plate. Trea Turner is rock solid at short, as are Cody Bellinger in center and Mookie Betts in right. Chris Taylor and Max Muncy can each fluently play multiple positions. And Freddie Freeman is certainly no slouch at first, having won a Gold Glove in 2018. There's a reason Los Angeles allowed fewer runs than any other team this season.
Starting Pitching: 9.6/10
Ten different pitchers started at least six games this season for the Dodgers, which is a testament to how banged up this rotation has been. But it looks like it'll be Julio Urías (2.16 ERA), Clayton Kershaw (2.28), Tyler Anderson (2.57) and Andrew Heaney (3.10) as the main four heading into the NLDS, which is quite the gauntlet of southpaws for opponents to endure.
Relief Pitching: 9.5/10
Much was made of Craig Kimbrel's season-long struggles in the closer role, and we simply can't go higher than a 9.5 in the relief department for a team without an actual closer. But seven of the 10 Dodgers pitchers to make at least 25 relief appearances this season did so with an ERA of 2.45 or better, led by Evan Phillips logging 63 innings with a 1.14 ERA. There has also been talk of Tony Gonsolin (2.14 ERA in 24 starts) possibly serving in a relief role after his recent return from the IL, which would boost this already stellar bullpen even more.
Overall Score: 47.9/50
