Michigan State basketball at Illinois tipoff: Matchup analysis and a prediction
• What: Michigan State at Illinois
• When: 9 p.m. ET Friday
• Where: State Farm Center, Champaign, Illinois
• TV/Radio: FS1/Spartan Sports Network radio, including WJIM 1240-AM and WMMQ 94.9-FM; Sirius/XM Ch. 382 (MSU broadcast), 84 (Illinois broadcast)
• Records/Rankings: MSU is 12-4 overall, 4-1 in the Big Ten and unranked. Illinois is 11-5 overall, 2-3 in the Big Ten and ranked No. 18 in both the Associated Press poll and Coaches poll.
• Betting line: Opened at Illinois -4.5; Illinois -6.5
• Kenpom projected score: Illinois 71-66
• Coaches: MSU — Tom Izzo is 678-271 in his 28th season as a head coach, all with the Spartans. Illinois — Brad Underwood is 214-98 in his 11th season as a head coach, including 105-71 in his sixth season with the Illini.
• Series: MSU leads 64-62 all-time. Illinois won both meetings last year.
Lineups
MSU
C (22) Mady Sissoko (6-9) 6.3
PF (10) Joey Hauser (6-9) 13.8
G (3) Jaden Akins (6-4) 8.4
G (2) Tyson Walker (6-1) 13.9
PG (11) AJ Hoggard (6-4) 12.0
Illinois
C (33) Coleman Hawkins (6-10) 10.1
F (42) Dain Dainja (6-9) 9.8
F (24) Matthew Mayer (6-9) 10.1
G (0) Terrence Shannon Jr. (6-6) 18.1
G (1) Sencire Harris (6-4) 4.0
• MSU update: The Spartans sit tied atop the Big Ten standings at 4-1 after winning their seventh straight game Tuesday night, 69-65, at Wisconsin. That win also made MSU 2-0 in Big Ten road games and 3-1 in true road games. Tom Izzo said Wednesday he may alter the starting lineup to reinsert Malik Hall, who’s been coming off the bench the past four games since coming back from a foot injury. It’s unclear whether that means Jaden Akins or Tyson Walker will start on the bench. It shouldn’t impact the way the Spartans finish games. Izzo hinted Tuesday night that he’d like to get back to a regular rotation. Starting Hall is a step toward that. MSU is yet to lose this season indoors when Hall has played.
• Illinois update: The Illini have been all over the place this season — beating UCLA and Texas, but also getting clobbered by Penn State (at home) and Missouri. They’re 2-0, however, with two impressive showings since five-star freshman point guard Skyy Clark left the team, beating Wisconsin by 10 and winning at Nebraska by 26. Perhaps that’s the move that fixes the chemistry and contention on the roster (and sometimes between the roster and the coaching staff). Illinois, like MSU, is a veteran team, but, unlike MSU, it’s a roster heavy on new transfers — leading scorer Terrence Shannon (Texas Tech) and starters Matthew Mayer and Dain Dainja (both from Baylor). The Illini are the 25th-ranked team in Kenpom, with good offensive and defensive efficiency numbers. They’ve been a below-average outside shooting team and turned the ball over too much (20.4% of their possessions), though most of those numbers are with a different situation at point guard.
• Inside the matchup: In terms of athletic ability and experienced talent, Illinois is a step up from anything the Spartans have faced in a while. Throw in a difficult road atmosphere and you can see why the advanced stats don’t expect MSU to win. That said, Kenpom and such and don’t have a true picture of this MSU team, because the Spartans have played half their games without Malik Hall and some of those also without Jaden Akins. Same for Illinois, which is different without Skyy Clark, who’d been playing 25 minutes a game at point guard. So ignore the full-season stat-based analysis and predictions for this one. Terrence Shannon can be a difficult cover and he’s played two of his best overall games — beyond scoring 25 and 24 points, respectively — in Illinois’ last two games. Akins, AJ Hoggard and Hall are MSU’s best three defensive options on him. Shannon can get hot from outside, but he’s at his best when he’s also attacking the rim. Matthew Mayer has been too 3-point happy this year for a guy who’s shooting 35% from deep. But you’ve got to guard him everywhere. And, for the second straight game, MSU is facing a big man in Coleman Hawkins who’s a willing and capable outside shooter.
• Prediction: As big as beating Wisconsin in Madison was for the Spartans, winning in Champaign would be more impressive, given how the Illini are playing. I’m glad both teams have found their footing. These are two squads that have a chance to do a little damage this season. A win here by MSU would catch some national and league-wide attention. The game is being played indoors and MSU has Malik Hall, so I wouldn’t bet against the Spartans.
• Make it: Illinois 67, MSU 64
— Graham Couch
This article originally appeared on Lansing State Journal: MSU basketball at Illinois: Prediction, preview, TV info, betting line
