New Mexico State football: Three keys and prediction for opener vs. UMass

LAS CRUCES – New Mexico State football coach Jerry Kill goes way back with Massachusetts head coach Don Brown.

Kill coached against Brown at the Division I-AA level and Kill's Aggies won the latest meeting — a 23-13 victory at UMass last season.

The Aggies open the 2023 season as eight-point favorites against UMass on Saturday at 5 p.m., in a Week 0 matchup at Aggie Memorial Stadium on ESPN.

Both teams have gone through changes via transfer portal, but both coaches will look to establish the running game and play defense so fans should expect another tight game.

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"Anytime you have got a good quarterback and play good defense, you are building your team inside out," Kill said. "We are doing the same thing. It's very similar to where we are at and that's why it should be such a great opening game."

Here are three keys for the Aggies for Saturday's season opener:

Pass protection

UMass limited the NM State run game to 111 yards on 3.5 yards per carry in last year's game and with nine UMass starters back on defense, the Aggies could struggle to find traction in the run game on Saturday.

"Don Brown is very similar to what New Mexico was like last year," Kill said. "He throws a lot of stuff at you and they play cover 1 a lot. Defensively, he's a lot like (former UNM defensive coordinator and head coach Rocky Long). It's a mess to prepare for."

UMass was the No. 50 total defense last year and No. 9 against the pass, holding opponents to 175 yards per game.

Fortunately for the Aggies, quarterback Diego Pavia had a breakout game against UMass off the bench, passing for 194 yards with two touchdowns. The UMass game was a turning point for the Aggies and for Pavia, who started at quarterback for the rest of the season.

“I feel like I had a good grasp on what they were doing defensively all throughout the whole week going through film," Pavia said. "Then, the guys just trusted me. The week before I sat down with some of the guys and that was the changing point in them trusting me and it was about me getting my opportunity again. Once I got it, I wasn’t going to let it go.

“Playing throughout the game I still had mistakes and stuff, but when you win it’s easier to trust the quarterback. Once I built that trust with the guys, it didn’t matter what anyone else thought, it was about going out there and making plays.”

While Pavia has a better grasp on the offense in his second season, the Aggies should be better along the offensive line. Kill said Boise State transfer Jacob Golden has missed practice due to a toe injury, but he has returned to practice and will be available. Freshman Louie Canepa will start at right tackle and junior college transfer Shamarr Jackson will start at left guard.

The Aggies gave up three sacks against UMass last year. They should be better on Saturday — where the Aggies may have to throw the football in order to establish the run.

Limit run game

The Aggies were No. 64 against the run last year; however, depth was an issue.

NM State recruited heavily up front on the defensive side of the ball and will have at least five players rotate inside on the defensive line, including returning starter Izaiah Reed and Arizona transfer Dion Wilson.

UMass rushed for 162 yards on 5.1 yards per carry last year against the Aggies, but as the game went on, it was apparent UMass couldn't throw the football. Clemson transfer quarterback Taisun Phomachanh will start for UMass on Saturday. Phomachanh has limited experience at Georgia Tech and Clemson, but a change at the position was needed after UMass finished last in FBS in scoring with 12 points per game.

"We know they are a team that likes to get downhill and run the ball a lot," Reed said. "It's going to be a huge game for us up front. Having the depth we have this season is an improvement. It's been noticeable every day because there really is no drop off."

Fast start

Penalties early in the game last year stalled NM State's possessions against UMass.

With more experience on offense, the Aggies should be able to move the ball if they can avoid penalties and turnovers against a team that traveled across the country.

An early lead would force UMass away from its strength and force an inexperienced quarterback to win a game on the road.

Prediction

If NM State wants to return to bowl eligibility, winning the first two games of the season at home is essential.

The Aggies will be tested offensively, but they should be able to build an early lead and Pavia will help the Aggies close the game out.

Aggies 27, UMass 14.

Jason Groves can be reached at 575-541-5459 or jgroves@lcsun-news.com. Follow him on Twitter @jpgroves.

This article originally appeared on Las Cruces Sun-News: New Mexico State football: Three keys and prediction vs. UMass