LSU vs. Alabama: What to watch for in key SEC West showdown
In 2021, LSU came close to pulling an improbable upset in Tuscaloosa. Now, with a better team and in front of its home crowd, LSU will get another shot at Alabama.
This was supposed to be a rebuilding year for Brian Kelly and his Tigers, yet a win would put LSU in control of the SEC West. LSU will look to build on its performance against Ole Miss, where the offense dropped 45 and the defense pitched a second-half shutout.
The game will be broadcast on ESPN at 6 p.m. CT with Chris Fowler and Kirk Herbstreit on the call. Here’s what to keep an eye on as you watch on Saturday.
When LSU has the ball
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This is strength vs. strength. The LSU offense has emerged as one of the top units in the sport. According to CFBGraphs, the Tigers rank 12th in EPA/play and 14th in points/drive. The FEI ratings have the LSU offense ranked 10th in the nation.
The Bama defense ranks 15th in EPA/play and 10th in points/drive. An area where the LSU offense might be able to find a slight advantage is the run game. LSU ranks 11th in EPA/ rush and eighth in success rate. The Crimson Tide defense ranks just 67th in rushing success rate.
Key areas to watch in that department include…
Is the LSU OL getting a push up front?
How often does LSU go to the read option that worked so well against Ole Miss, and how does Alabama plan to stop it?
Does Jayden Daniels keep drives alive with his legs or does the Tide find a way to contain him?
In the passing game, the LSU offensive tackles will face their toughest test yet. Auburn, Tennessee, and Ole Miss all brought a solid stable of pass rushers and LSU responded with mixed results.
Alabama is a different breed up front. Will Anderson, Dallas Turner and Chris Braswell are some of the best in the country. They’re going to get their fair share of pressures, but on a good day, [autotag]Will Campbell[/autotag] and [autotag]Emery Jones[/autotag] are talented enough to limit the damage.
The LSU running backs will have to be on top of their game in pass protection and [autotag]Jayden Daniels[/autotag] can’t fall back into his bad habit of holding the ball.
Mike Denbrock’s attack on offense will be interesting. He’ll want to get the ball out of quickly, but LSU’s going to have to take some shots too.
When Alabama has the ball
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The Alabama offense is still really good, but it’s a notch below what it’s been in recent years. The Crimson Tide rank eighth in FEI, it’s worse rating since 2017.
LSU held Bryce Young and company to just 20 points in 2021, so there’s a wide range of possibilities here. I’d expect Alabama to surpass that 20 point mark, but it’s an offense that can be stopped.
LSU’s defense found success last year because it got more creative coming out of the bye. [autotag]Daronte Jones[/autotag] threw a lot of different blitzes at Alabama and the Tide struggled to block the Tigers.
The Alabama offensive line LSU will see on Saturday is better than the one the Tigers saw last year and LSU is going to have to up the ante in the trenches again.
Alabama’s offense ranks 26th in EPA/pass while the LSU defense ranks 49th in EPA/pass. Alabama is going to rip off some big plays. The LSU defense was better against Ole Miss when it came to explosiveness, but it still wasn’t perfect.
Alabama’s wide receiver group is a step down from some of the units its had in recent years, so there should be some winnable matchups on the outside for LSU.
LSU will need its guys on the interior to show up. [autotag]Mekhi Wingo[/autotag] stopping the run could put Bama behind schedule, allowing [autotag]Matt House[/autotag] to dial up some pressure. There are a few question marks on both sides here, but Alabama has the advantage.
Special teams
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Alabama doesn’t have elite special teams, but its above average and significantly better than LSU. The Tide’s special teams rank 46th in SP+ and 34th in FEI, however, the same unit ranks eighth in PFF’s special team grades.
We don’t need much detail to demonstrate the struggles of LSU’s special teams. If you’ve watched one game, you know they aren’t good. In the kicking game, Alabama’s Will Reichard has made more FG’s from 40+ yards than LSU’s [autotag]Damian Ramos[/autotag] has made at all.
When it comes to the punters, it’s almost equal. LSU’s [autotag]Jay Bramblett[/autotag] is averaging a net of 38.8 yards per punt and and Bama’s Jay Burnip is averaging 38.5 net yards per punt.
Game notes
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Here are some other things to look for during this matchup…
Alabama’s three worst total yardage games on defense this year have all come on the road.
LSU hasn’t beaten Alabama in Tiger Stadium since 2010.
LSU and Alabama are both averaging exactly 34.3 points per game in their last three contests.
Both teams rank outside the top 80 in penalties/play.
Alabama likes to move its wide receivers around. Jermaine Burton, Traeshon Holden, Ja’Corey Brooks and Kobe Prentice have all played at least 20% of their snaps in the slot.
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