Kentucky Derby 2023 betting strategy: Ed DeRosa's picks after scratches at Churchill Downs
The quartet of Kentucky Derby scratches will affect how I play the race Saturday at Churchill Downs.
Skinner, Practical Move, Lord Miles and Continuar are all out while Cyclone Mischief, Mandarin Hero and King Russell are all in.
You may recall both No. 9 Skinner and No. 10 Practical Move featured prominently in the wagers I formulated earlier this week. Well, they’re out. But the horse who finished second between them, Mandarin Hero, is in, so how can I not use him? And, Mandarin Hero will be a higher price than at least Practical Move would have been, so he’s a must use.
Lord Miles I gave small consideration to in terms of using him as a longshot with logical contenders (i.e. Tapit Trice and Forte). Cyclone Mischief I like a little better because of his forward style. He is very much in the mix if I’m right about the ones I really like.
King Russell replacing Continuar does not affect my wagering strategy at all.
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So here is how I’m playing it:
No. 5 Tapit Trice is my top pick and value in the win pool at 4-1.
Nos. 11 Disarm and 22 Mandarin Hero are prominent keys. I will play them liberally with Tapit Trice and also hook them up with other logical contenders such as No. 3 Two Phil’s and No. 15 Forte.
Nos. 13 Sun Thunder, 18 Rocket Can and 21 Cyclone Mischief I would use with Tapit Trice, No. 2 Verifying and No. 14 Angel of Empire I’d use with Disarm and Mandarin Hero.
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What types of bets might encompass those opinions?
$1 exacta box 5, 11, 22 ($6)
$1 key box 5 with 11, 13, 18, 21, 22 ($10)
$1 exacta part wheel 11, 22 with 2, 3, 5, 11, 13, 14, 15, 18, 21, 22 ($18)
$1 exacta part wheel 2, 3, 5, 11, 13, 14, 15, 18, 21, 22 with 11, 22 ($18)
$1 exacta part wheel 2, 3, 5, 11, 14, 15, 22 with 11, 13, 18, 21, 22 ($30)
50-cent trifecta part wheel 5 with 11, 22 with 2, 3, 11, 13, 14, 15, 18, 21, 22 ($8)
50-cent trifecta part wheel 5 with 2, 3, 11, 13, 14, 15, 18, 21, 22 with 11, 22 ($8)
50-cent trifecta part wheel 11, 22 with 5 with 2, 3, 11, 13, 14, 15, 18, 21, 22 ($8)
50-cent trifecta box 3, 5, 11, 22 ($12)
50-cent trifecta part wheel 2, 3, 5, 14, 15 with 11, 22 with 2, 3, 11, 12, 13, 15, 18, 21, 22 ($35)
50-cent trifecta part wheel 2, 3, 5, 14, 15 with 2, 3, 11, 12, 13, 15, 18, 21, 22 with 11, 22 ($35)
50-cent trifecta part wheel 11, 22 with 2, 3, 5, 11, 14, 15, 22 with 2, 3, 11, 12, 13, 15, 18, 21, 22 ($42)
Total bet: $230
Obviously pick and chose what makes sense for your budget and your own handicapping, but that’s how I would mix and match my opinions.
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This article originally appeared on Louisville Courier Journal: Kentucky Derby picks 2023: Analysis after scratches at Churchill Down