Jonathan Taylor Is Officially NFL's Best RB and Entering 2021 NFL MVP Race
Sorry Derrick Henry, but Jonathan Taylor is now the NFL's best running back.
After a relatively slow start to his sophomore season, the Indianapolis Colts star has found his footing in recent weeks and has become one of the league's unstoppable forces.
The 22-year-old had a strong rookie season—he amassed 1,169 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground plus 36 catches for 299 yards and a score—but he's enjoying a true breakout campaign in 2021.
Taylor now leads the league in rushing yards and touchdowns on the season. He's racked up an incredible 1,122 yards and 13 scores on only 193 carries while adding an additional 322 yards and two scores on 32 receptions.
With Henry sidelined indefinitely with a foot injury, Taylor stands unequaled atop the league's running back hierarchy. He's the only back to have over 1,000 yards on the ground going into Week 12, and he passed both Henry and James Conner for the league's lead in rushing touchdowns with his eruption against the Buffalo Bills on Sunday.
While Henry could return in early January, according to ESPN's Dianna Russini, he isn't likely to reclaim his status as the league's top running back.
The 27-year-old has lost a lot of tread on his tires after seeing heavy usage for the last two-and-a-half seasons. The sixth-year veteran has exactly 900 carries since the 2019 campaign began and picked up another 55 touches on receptions in that span.
Before the injury, Henry was on pace for more than 450 carries this season. Had that usage continued, it would have shattered Larry Johnson's record 416 rushing attempts back in 2006 and challenged James Wilder's longstanding record of 497 total touches in a season.
The Colts have been more cautious with Taylor's touches, rotating in Nyheim Hines as a change-of-pace back who can spell him effectively. The strategy is clearly working, as Taylor has stayed healthy and is only gaining momentum as the season wears on.
Taylor has scored in each of his last eight starts despite breaking the 20-carry mark for the first time in Week 10. Indianapolis fed the hot hand in Week 11 against Buffalo, giving Taylor a career-high 32 totes.
Considering Taylor set a franchise record with five touchdowns Sunday, it's hard to fault the coaching staff for riding him to victory.
Taylor obliterated the Bills defense in a 41-15 blowout win, eviscerating a unit that ranked atop the league in yards and points allowed this year. Prior to Week 11, the Bills had allowed only seven rushing touchdowns all season.
Taylor, who finished with 185 rushing yards and 19 receiving yards, became only the fifth player since the merger to rack up 200 or more all-purpose yards and score five or more touchdowns in a single contest, per Michael Baca of NFL.com.
That outing greatly improved Taylor's chances to do something only a select few backs have accomplished: be crowned NFL MVP.
"If there's any skill position [for MVP], Jonathan Taylor needs to be in it," Hines told reporters after Sunday's game. "Him and Cooper Kupp. JT is the first in line for a non-quarterback player."
Seventeen of the past 21 MVPs have been quarterbacks, but no signal-caller truly stands out from the pack this season. The usual suspects like Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes are all in the discussion, but Brady's +350 DraftKings' odds are leading a weak field that includes nine players with 14-1 odds or better.
Taylor currently has the 10th-best odds at 20-1, a betting line that will improve if he can put together a few more performances like his last.
Adrian Peterson was the most recent non-quarterback to win the award back in 2012. Marshall Faulk, Shaun Alexander and LaDanian Tomlinson are the only other three to be named MVP since the 2000 season.
AP finished his MVP campaign with 2,097 rushing yards—nearly breaking Eric Dickerson's single-season rushing record—and 12 touchdowns to go with 217 yards and a score on 40 receptions. Tomlinson's MVP season was arguably even more impressive, as the San Diego Chargers star helped create the mold for the type of player Taylor has the chance to become.
LT went off for 1,815 yards and 28 touchdowns on the ground while adding three more touchdowns and 508 yards on 56 receptions. His 31 total scores still stands as a single-season record, three more than Alexander's 28 touchdowns from the year prior.
While Taylor isn't on pace to break any significant records, he did just tie Tomlinson and Lydell Mitchell for most consecutive 100-plus yards from scrimmage and one-plus score games at eight, per CBS Sports' Jeff Kerr. If he maintains his current averages, he'll top 2,000 yards from scrimmage and score 22 touchdowns.
If Taylor scores 23 touchdowns this year, he would be tied with Hall of Famers Randy Moss (2007), Terrell Davis (1998), Jerry Rice (1987) and O.J. Simpson (1975) for the eighth-most in a single season. If he hits 24, it would move him into a three-way tie with Priest Holmes (2002) and John Riggins (1983) for the sixth-most.
Taylor would vault into the top five if he can find paydirt 25 times, a number that only Tomlinson, Alexander, Holmes, Faulk and Emmitt Smith have reached.
It's too early to say Taylor is a lock to reach those lofty marks, however, as Indianapolis does have some tough matchups down the stretch against stingy fronts.
In Week 12, the Colts will face a Tampa Bay Buccaneers squad that allows a league-low 79.8 rushing yards per game. In Week 14, they'll go against a New England Patriots defense that has conceded the second-fewest rushing touchdowns (five) this season.
However, the Colts do have a handful of soft matchups on tap as well. Their other four remaining games are against rushing defenses that rank in the bottom half of the league, including a pair of contests against bottom-five units in the Houston Texans and Las Vegas Raiders.
Those two alone have allowed a combined 25 rushing touchdowns, which sets Taylor up to have a strong finish to the season.
As long as Taylor continues on his current trajectory, he'll solidify his status as the NFL's best running back, and he'll likely hang onto that title for the foreseeable future. He could walk away with MVP or Offensive Player of the Year at the end of the season, too.
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