Hurricane Idalia storm surge could reach 12 feet near Big Bend: See predictions in your area

Kinsey Crowley, USA TODAY
·2 min read

Now Hurricane Idalia is expected make landfall as a Category 3 hurricane by Wednesday morning and bring storm surges up to 12 feet to portions of Florida's Gulf Coast later in the week, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The storm surge watch is in effect for the majority of Florida's gulf coast, stretching from Chokoloskee to Indian Pass Florida, including Tampa Bay. As of Monday morning, the watch was upgraded to a warning for the region north of Englewood.

A storm surge watch means that a dangerous influx of water brought inland from the coast could occur in the area within the next 48 hours. The upgrade to warning means it is likely instead of possible. The NHC warns that the deepest water will occur among the immediate coastline, but surge-related flooding can vary greatly depending on tidal timing.

Residents are encouraged be complete their hurricane preparations by Monday end of day. Here how high water could reach in some areas on the Gulf Coast, according to forecasters:

Storm surge predictions as of 8.29.2023 ahead of Hurricane Idalia. Surges could reach up to 12 feet in the Big Bend area.
Storm surge predictions as of 8.29.2023 ahead of Hurricane Idalia. Surges could reach up to 12 feet in the Big Bend area.

Panhandle: Up to 8 feet

Mexico Beach to Indian Pass: One to three feet. This includes:

  • Bay County

  • Gulf County

Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River: Three to five feet. This includes:

  • Gulf County

  • Franklin County

Ochlockonee River to Aucilla River: Five to eight feet. This includes:

  • Wakulla County

  • Jefferson County

Big Bend: Up to 12 feet

Aucilla River to Chassahowitzka: Eight to 12 feet. This includes:

  • Taylor County

  • Dixie County

  • Levy County

  • Citrus County

Tampa Bay area: Up to 9 feet

Chassahowitzka to Anclote River: Six to nine feet. This includes:

  • Hernando County

  • Pasco County

Tampa Bay and Anclote to the middle of Longboat Key: Four to seven feet. This includes:

  • Hillsborough County

  • Pinellas County

  • Manatee County

Live updates: Tropical Storm Idalia effects in Sarasota-Manatee counties

Southwest Florida: Up to 5 feet

Middle of Longboat Key to Englewood: Three to five feet. This includes:

  • Sarasota County

Englewood to Chokoloskee, including Charlotte Harbor: Two to four feet. This includes:

  • Charlotte County

  • Lee County

  • Collier County

From Chokoloskee to East Cape Sable, there is no storm surge watch in effect as only one to three feet of water-level rise is expected.

Less than a year later: Tropical Storm Idalia expected to rapidly intensify like Ian did

Florida Keys

The Florida Keys are not under a storm surge watch, as NHC predicts water-level rise if one to two feet. However, a tropical storm watch is in effect for the area.

Tropical Storm Idalia path, tracker

Tropical Storm Idalia spaghetti models

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Hurricane Idalia storm surge forecast: Predictions in Big Bend

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