How to fill out your March Madness bracket

If you’re reading this article then chances are, two things are true: 1) You’ve been invited to fill out a March Madness bracket as part of a friend/family member/co-worker’s bracket pool, and 2) You may not know much about college basketball.

Have no fear — you don’t need to be a college basketball savant to fill out a bracket. In fact, even for experts, March Madness is notoriously unpredictable (it’s called “madness” for a reason).

[Enter the sweepstakes: Win a trip to the men's and women's Final Four]

As for getting a perfect bracket? Dream on. According to the NCAA, the odds of correctly guessing all the winners in the Big Dance are about 1 in 9.2 quintillion.

The basics

The men’s tournament has 68 teams, but eight of them are playing Tuesday and Wednesday for the right to enter the field of 64 by the time the first round begins Thursday. After that half the teams will be eliminated every round (for a total of six rounds) until the final two face off in the championship game on April 7.

The 64 teams are divided into four regions of 16 teams each, and seeded based on performance, with the four No. 1 seeds technically the best team of their respective regions. In the first round they play the No. 16 seed while the 2nd-seeded team faces the No. 15 seed, the 3-seed plays the No. 14 seed, etc.

You only get 1 point for each correct pick in the first round, and then double that for each subsequent round, culminating in 32 points for correctly picking the tournament champion.

[Your team's not guaranteed to make it far in the Big Dance. But AT&T can give you a guarantee.]

Got it? Now here are some ideas for how to fill out your brackets.

1. Mascot madness

Forget records and performance, and focus on each school’s mascot or nickname. Do you think a Jayhawk could beat a Razorback? Then pick Kansas over Arkansas. What about a Triton vs. a Wolverine? One’s a mythical sea god and the other a fierce bear-like mammal. Tough call.

This method does have its drawbacks. In addition to almost certainly guaranteeing a loss, you’ll end up having to Google what half the mascots actually are (seriously, what is a Gael?), and sometimes the teams will draw even (as in the case of the Gonzaga Bulldogs battling the Georgia Bulldogs. It'll be a real dogfight.).

If you prefer something a little more analytical than the mascot method, then it’s time to look at the numbers — specifically, the seedings.

2. Pick upsets in the early rounds

If the higher seeds are supposed to be the better teams, can you just pick the higher seed to win each time? Not really. Because one of the hallmarks of March Madness are upsets. When the season’s on the line, a 14-seeded Cinderella could topple a mighty No. 3 seed.

But you have to be smart about upsets. Since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985, only twice has a No. 16 seed defeated a No. 1 seed, and 15-seeds have only beaten a 2nd-seeded team 11 times. The 13- and 14-seeds have had better records, but you’re still taking a chance.

However, you pretty much have to pick at least one 12-seed and 11-seed to defeat their 5th- and 6th-seeded opponents — since 1985, these upsets have happened more than one-third of the time.

As for the 8 vs. 9 and 7 vs. 10 seeds: These difference between these seeds is usually minimal, so these games could go either way.

Here are some Cinderellas to consider.

3. Pick the right teams to go all the way

While you can get some points with early-round upsets, in the end you only get serious points if you pick a majority of the Sweet 16 teams and beyond.

In this case, you should bet on the high seeds. Out of the 39 tournament champions since 1985, 25 were No. 1 seeds, and another nine were 2- or 3-seeds. The lowest seed to win it all was an 8-seed.

So can you just pick all four top seeds to make it to the Final Four? Still no. Only once in the tournament’s history (2008) have all four No. 1 seeds made it to the Final Four. While a top seed is likely to win it all, other No. 1 seeds will fall along the way.

If all these numbers and statistics sound complicated, remember one key fact…

4. Everyone’s brackets are getting busted

Let’s say a team you picked to make the championship game gets knocked out in the 2nd round. Bad luck. But don’t assume you’re out of it, because in all likelihood, the upsets have ruined a lot of other people’s brackets as well. Check the standings — you could still be the Cinderella that wins your pool.