France’s Women’s World Cup Hopes Soar After Win Over Brazil
The Women’s World Cup is heating up, with group stage play well underway as teams jostle to be one of the two countries to emerge from each of the eight pods and advance to the knockouts. On Saturday, one of the most anticipated matches of the opening round will be held when France and Brazil battle in Brisbane, Australia, with world No. 5 France in a vulnerable position.
Entering the tournament, the French were viewed as a top contender, but a loss on Saturday could take their ability to advance out of Group F out of their hands. That’s because Les Bleues failed to solve underdog Jamaica in an opening scoreless draw, while Brazil trounced Panama, 4-0. To make matters worse for France, star defender Wendie Renard is questionable for the rest of the group stage.
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That tilts the pressure heading into Saturday’s rematch of a 2019 World Cup knockout game (won by Les Bleues) toward France, while putting a big opportunity in front of Brazil. The 2023 Cup is the last chance for 37-year-old Brazilian icon Marta to win a major tournament, as well as a chance for coach Pia Sundhage to do something she didn’t do during her tenure as USWNT head: win the World Cup. That goal becomes more achievable if Brazil is able to top Group F.
Here’s what each possible result of Saturday’s clash would mean.
If Brazil Wins…
A Brazil victory would put Sundhage’s team in great shape for winning Group F, leaving only world No. 43 Jamaica with a realistic chance. If Jamaica beats Panama on Saturday, the Reggae Girlz’ Aug. 2 game with Brazil would settle first place in the group, with Brazil needing just a draw to do so. Win the group and the Brazilians are likely looking at a manageable round of 16 opponent and the chance to avoid a couple heavyweights until the semifinals.
Beating France would also send a message to the rest of the field that Brazil is a serious contender for the trophy. The presence of all-time Women’s World Cup goals leader Marta, star forward Debinha, captain Rafaelle and young talent such as Kerolin, Geyse and Ary Borges (the last of whom scored a hat trick vs. Panama) has the Brazilians primed to break out, but a signature win is needed. Fun fact: Brazil has 10 NWSL players on their World Cup roster, trailing only the USWNT’s 22.
Should it lose on Saturday, France’s situation could get dicey. Les Bleues would be sitting on one point entering the group stage finale, and while they’d be heavily favored vs. Panama, a win there may be required just to trigger a tiebreaker scenario with Jamaica for second place in the group. Further, if Jamaica scratches four points out of its matches with Panama and Brazil, it would send France packing. If France earns second place, it’s likely to face world No. 2 Germany in the round of 16, a brutal scenario for the country that four years ago was matched with the eventual champion USWNT in the quarterfinals.
France is still looking for its breakthrough moment in women’s soccer, having never reached the final of a major tournament despite falling outside of the FIFA world top five just once since December 2013. The France Football Federation has stepped up its efforts to grow the women’s game in recent years, including hosting the 2019 World Cup and, this April, pledging to increase its women’s soccer budget by 4 to 5 million Euros—particularly through boosting the endowments of the clubs in Division 1 Féminine, the French league run by the FFF that is home to 15 of the players on France’s World Cup roster.
If France Wins…
Les Bleues can wipe away any sour taste from the Jamaica draw by defeating Brazil, which would propel them to the top of the Group F standings. It wouldn’t solve all of France’s issues, with pre-tournament injuries and now Renard’s health looming large, but with only 52nd-ranked Panama left, coach Hervé Renard’s team would be in a great position to nab the easier knockout path (unless, that is, the Germans stumble and come in second in Group H). As for Brazil, a loss on Saturday would make things tougher; Sundhage’s squad would still be favored to advance but probably into that date with Germany. Jamaica, meanwhile, can still have its own say in this scenario by beating both Panama and Brazil, potentially triggering the tiebreaker rule (more on that below).
If It’s a Draw…
Brazil would remain atop the group with four points, while France would have two points heading into Group F’s final day. Should Jamaica, which faces Panama immediately after France-Brazil, win that match, Brazil and Jamaica would both control their destiny heading into their Aug. 2. meeting. The victor of that game would take the group, while the loser could still advance pending the result of France-Panama.
If Brazil and Jamaica draw and France beats Panama, it would create a three-way tie between Brazil, France and Jamaica with five points apiece. First and second place in the group would then be determined by goal differential and (if necessary) goals scored. Brazil currently leads both stats by four—and considering the knockout path that likely awaits first place vs. second place, those tiebreakers would be crucial.
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