Fran McCaffery, Iowa at a Crossroads After Another Early NCAA Tourney Exit
Iowa has traveled this route too many times. This feeling of disappointment, one all-too-familiar for Fran McCaffery, has stopped the Hawkeyes at a crossroads.
In the opening round of the 2022 men's NCAA tournament, 12th-seeded Richmond upset No. 5 Iowa 67-63. While the outcome certainly stings the memory of a 26-win campaign, it was mostly a terribly timed poor showing—the worst of the season, by their own admission—with a semi-controversial finish.
The loss itself is not a long-term problem. The real issue is the continuation of an unfortunate trend for the program.
Since 2014, Iowa has appeared in March Madness six of the last eight seasons (excluding the canceled 2020 tournament). Along the way, though, the Hawkeyes have never advanced to the Sweet 16.
Where do they go from here?
The sky is nowhere close to falling in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes just celebrated a Big Ten tourney title, storming through the conference with brilliant offense. They won 26 games—the second-highest total in program history—and landed a top-five seed in the Big Dance after securing a No. 2 seed in 2021.
Overall, for the fifth straight year, the Hawkeyes boasted one of KenPom's 20 most efficient scoring attacks. There is no question McCaffery knows how to assemble a potent offense.
Iowa doesn't need a philosophical overhaul.
But it's probably time to start veering in a different direction, too.
During the last half-decade, the Hawkeyes have finished no higher than 73rd in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom. The angel on one shoulder wants you to realize that ranking has actually improved each season since 2018. The pitchfork-wielding character says it's not good enough, though.
Recent history says the latter view is correct; unbalanced teams like Iowa have continually fallen short of national titles.
Entering the current edition of March Madness, no NCAA tournament champion has ranked lower than 22nd in KenPom's defensive efficiency. Iowa has made substantial improvements on that end, but jumping from "competent" to "excellent" is both necessary and immensely difficult.
McCaffery's challenge is to improve the defense while not sacrificing too much of Iowa's reputation as a strong offensive team.
If I knew how exactly to strike that balance, you'd be watching me coach basketball and reading someone else's words. The intent isn't to guide McCaffery on this noble quest, but I can channel my inner Rafiki, smack McCaffery on the head, provide some inspiration and cackle as he runs in the right direction.
"The past can hurt," The Lion King character says. "But the way I see it, you can either run from it or learn from it."
McCaffery and his staff have endured this frustrating result and disappointing plane ride before. They're accustomed to watching the second weekend on a screen instead of a sideline. Eight of Iowa's nine rotation players this season have now experienced two (or more) early losses in the NCAA tournament.
Twelve years of this identity have produced solid regular-season results and made Iowa a consistent March Madness team. Yet the Hawkeyes have never come remotely close to the ultimate goal.
That reality hurts, but Iowa can learn from it, adapt and bring a more complete team—one better prepared to withstand a rough offensive day—to future NCAA tournaments.
Or, they can follow the same, comfortable road and expect the same, unsatisfying results.
Statistics courtesy of KenPom.com or Sports-Reference.com, unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.
