Fantasy Football's Biggest Winners and Losers After 2023 Early NFL Free Agency Period

We're only one week into free agency, yet the NFL landscape has already been altered in a big way.

Some teams appear stronger than they were when the offseason began. Others have taken a step backward. Dozens of players have signed new deals. Hundreds of millions in contracts have been doled out.

Just like in the NFL, the fantasy football landscape has been given the old snowglobe treatment as well. Some running backs are in line for a bigger role and more touches. Others have watched as a new arrival rained on their backfield parade. Wide receivers have seen their value increase or decrease based on everything from a change of scenery to a change in quarterback or a change in teammates.

The sometimes-frenetic pace of this player movement can be enough to give you vertigo. But we're here to make sure you don't get dizzy, with a look at the biggest fantasy winners and losers of free agency so far.

The Dallas Cowboys made the playoffs last season as much in spite of quarterback Dak Prescott as because of him. Prescott threw 15 interceptions in only 12 games, which made him the first quarterback in NFL history to lead the league in picks despite missing at least five games.

However, Prescott might be headed toward a bounce-back season in 2023.

The Cowboys took steps to improve the passing-game weapons at Prescott's disposal this year, adding veteran receiver Brandin Cooks in a trade with the Houston Texans. With Cooks drawing at least some attention away from CeeDee Lamb, Derek Brown of FantasyPros believes Prescott could be well-positioned to do more damage down the field in 2023.

"While Dak Prescott struggled at times last year, his deep ball is more than sufficient to hit Cooks in stride this year," Brown wrote. "Prescott has ranked inside the top-12 in deep-ball completion rate in three of the last four seasons."

Two years ago, Prescott was seventh in the NFL in passing yards, tied for fourth in touchdown passes and ranked sixth in fantasy points among quarterbacks. From 2018 to 2021, Prescott finished as a top-12 fantasy quarterback three times in four years.

Fantasy managers who were burned by Prescott last season might be uneasy about drafting him again this year. That creates an opportunity for value.

There are some exceptionally talented quarterback prospects in this year's NFL draft class.

Bryce Young is athletic, accurate and accomplished just about everything that a quarterback can in college. C.J. Stroud is a consummate passer, with great arm strength and even better touch. Anthony Richardson is a 6'4", 244-pound athletic marvel. Will Levis is a big-bodied, strong-armed prospect who has evoked comparisons to Josh Allen.

At least one of those youngsters will likely go on to be a fantasy star one day. But that probably won't be be 2023—especially for the first two drafted.

When the Carolina Panthers traded up for the No. 1 overall pick, they undoubtedly did so with the intention of drafting a quarterback. However, they sent top wide receiver D.J. Moore to Chicago as part of that trade. The Panthers added veteran wideout Adam Thielen, but he's a 32-year-old on the downslope of his career.

The Houston Texans pick second this year, and they will likely take a quarterback with that selection. However, the Texans shipped veteran wideout Brandin Cooks to the Dallas Cowboys, further depleting an already weak receiving corps.

Like the Panthers, the Texans brought in a veteran wideout in Robert Woods. But like Thielen, Woods is an aging veteran who last had 600 receiving yards in a season in 2020.

For young quarterbacks, the cast of talent around them can be every bit as important as that player's talent. Whomever is under center for Carolina and Houston this season will face uphill battles in that regard.

Miles Sanders is coming off the best season of his NFL career. He tallied a career-high 1,269 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns to finish the year 15th in PPR points among running backs.

Sanders parlayed that success into a four-year, $25.4 million contract with the Carolina Panthers, where he will ostensibly serve as the lead back. The Panthers aren't as good as the Philadelphia Eagles, but Sanders has a relatively clear path to another 1,000-yard rushing season in his new home.

"Sanders should still be able to reach 1,000 yards with ease," Jonathan Alfano of Clutch Points wrote. "Carolina had the 10th-best rushing offense in the league last season, averaging 130 yards per game. That's in spite of not having a star running back after the Christian McCaffrey trade early in the season. If D'Onta Foreman can rush for 914 yards in 2022, Sanders should easily hit 1,000 in 2023."

With D'Onta Foreman now in Chicago, there isn't much on the depth chart in Carolina outside Chuba Hubbard. Not only is Sanders potentially about to see a career-high number of carries, but he should be a bigger factor in the passing game. Whether it's Andy Dalton or a rookie under center, there should be no shortage of dump-offs out of the backfield.

At the very least, Sanders has a good chance to once again serve as a high-end fantasy RB2. His ceiling is a fair bit higher than that.

In 2021, Detroit Lions tailback D'Andre Swift eclipsed 1,000 total yards, scored seven touchdowns and finished 10th among running backs in PPR points per game. The youngster's arrow was pointing way up.

But in 2022, Swift found himself playing second fiddle to Jamaal Williams. He had a career-low 147 touches last year.

The good news for Swift's fantasy value is that Williams and his 17 rushing scores from last season are now in New Orleans. The bad news is that the Lions replaced Williams with former Chicago Bears tailback David Montgomery.

Given how Montgomery was used in the passing game in Chicago, Jason Katz of Pro Football Network believes Swift may wind up losing even more work this year than last.

"Despite Williams clearly being the lead rusher over Swift, he was not a threat at all in the passing game. Williams had just a 2.9 percent target share last season," Katz said. "Montgomery, on the other hand, is far more competent in the receiving department. His target share has consistently been within a few tenths of 12% each of the past three seasons.

"I cannot fathom Detroit simply never throwing to Montgomery as they did with Williams. Additionally, we know head coach Dan Campbell doesn't believe Swift can handle a three-down workload. His job as head coach is to maximize the value of his players. He believes the way to do that with Swift is by keeping him at 100 percent, which means using him situationally."

Swift has averaged over 4.5 yards per carry twice in three years and has averaged over 50 receptions per season. But it's painfully clear that the staff in Detroit sees him less as a lead runner and more as a complementary piece.

With Miles Sanders now in Carolina, the Philadelphia Eagles were left with a sizable hole at running back. They went the bargain route, signing former Seattle Seahawks tailback Rashaad Penny to a one-year deal.

At his introductory press conference, Penny said that he's looking forward to the opportunity to jump-start his career in the City of Brotherly Love.

"I feel like this is a great place for me to refresh, restart my career," Penny said. "I'm just excited to be here, and I can't wait to get to work. I'm playing with a finalist MVP at QB, a great running back room, great weapons on the receivers, and obviously, arguably, the best O-line. I'm definitely excited to get to work."

Durability is the big question for Penny. He has missed a staggering 38 games over the past four seasons, including 12 last year with a broken fibula.

"I just feel like 17 games is really important," Penny said at his introductory press conference. "I know in my right mind that being here and being an Eagle, great strength and training staff, great coaches. They all take good care of their players here. I'm excited to be here and expect big things."

When healthy, Penny has been more than just an effective back. He led the NFL with 6.3 yards per carry in 2021 and has averaged 5.7 yards per tote across his career.

Playing behind Philly's stellar offensive line, Penny could be a league-winner if he stays healthy and gets anything close to a lead back's workload.

Mike Evans has long been a darling of the fantasy football community. He's the only receiver in NFL history to surpass 1,000 receiving yards in each of his first nine seasons.

However, there were already warning signs that the party was winding down. It took a gonzo Week 17 stat line last year (10 catches for 207 yards and three touchdowns) to get Evans over the 1,000-yard mark. He hasn't averaged 15 yards per catch since 2019.

But the real danger to Evans' fantasy this year is the changing of the guard under center in Tampa, as Andrew Erickson of FantasyPros noted.

"Evans is going to be tough to trust this year if Baker Mayfield/Kyle Trask are indeed under center in 2023," Erickson wrote. "Since Tom Brady landed in Tampa, no team was more pass-heavy. Brady just broke the record for passing attempts in a season this past year (733) after posting the third-most attempts all-time (719) the year before.

"The Mayfield/Trask pairing in Tampa for 2023 is going to throw less and that hurts Evans. Before his Week 17 eruption, he was WR26 overall and WR32 in points per game. He will be 30 by the time the season starts. History has not been kind to the aging big-bodied wide receivers that don't win with separation later in their careers."

In Mayfield's five NFL seasons, he has produced exactly zero top-20 fantasy seasons for any of his receivers. Hoping that trend suddenly reverses is begging to be disappointed.

Aaron Rodgers currently remains under contract with the Green Bay Packers, but he has made it abundantly clear that he doesn't want to play there anymore. Meanwhile, New York Jets fans would rather play human Frogger on the George Washington Bridge than go into the 2023 season with Zach Wilson as the starter.

Both sides have too much motivation to get a trade done for it not to happen. And once that deal becomes official, Garrett Wilson's fantasy value is going to take off like a rocket.

As a rookie, Wilson caught 83 passes for 1,103 yards and four scores despite quarterback play that ranged from below average to, well, Zach Wilson. And Jason Katz of Pro Football Network noted, Wilson has already shown that he can post elite fantasy numbers with just a so-so quarterback under center.

"When Garrett was catching passes from anyone other than Zach, he averaged 17.3 PPG," he wrote. "16.0 PPG is roughly the threshold for WR1 production. Wilson was firmly in WR1 territory when Joe Flacco and Mike White were under center. Basically, Wilson is QB-proof … just not Zach Wilson-proof. Even if Rodgers is a shell of his former self, he's an unfathomably large upgrade on Zach Wilson."

It's possible that it may take Wilson and Rodgers some time to mesh, as Rodgers has a history of targeting wideouts with whom he's familiar. But at some point, Rodgers will figure out that Wilson is his best target in the passing game.

Once he does, Wilson's fantasy value will be clear for takeoff.

This year's class of free-agent wide receivers wasn't especially strong. The best of the lot was probably Jakobi Meyers, who caught 67 passes for 804 yards and six scores last year on the way to a WR29 finish in PPR points.

Last year marked the second season in a row that Meyers surpassed 800 yards, which helped him secure a three-year, $33 million deal from the Las Vegas Raiders.

From an NFL perspective, it's a nice payday for Meyers and a good get for the Raiders. But as Daniel Kelley wrote for FTN Fantasy, the move didn't do Meyers' fantasy value any favors.

"Maybe Jakobi Meyers loved Josh McDaniels," Kelley wrote. "But his biggest virtue with the Patriots was the fact that he was the best receiver in the offense. That could not possibly be less true now, lining up alongside Davante Adams in Las Vegas. Meyers is better than Hunter Renfrow (probably? A lot of people didn't think that a year ago), but he's at best the No. 2 in this offense, and it's No. 2 behind maybe the most target-dominant receiver in the league. Meyers isn't good or efficient enough to thrive for fantasy in that sort of role."

Jimmy Garoppolo isn't a bad fantasy quarterback—he's no worse than Derek Carr, at least. But with Adams siphoning off such a big target share and Renfrow still in the mix, triple-digit targets could be a tall ask.

Without them, last year's numbers are closer to Meyers' ceiling than his floor.

The Jakobi Meyers signing wasn't the only transaction of note in Las Vegas. The Raiders also shipped tight end Darren Waller to the New York Giants for a third-round pick.

Teddy Ricketson of DraftKings Nation hailed that as a boost for Waller's fantasy value, in part because the Giants need upgrades to their passing-game weapons in the worst way.

"The Giants needed a reliable pass-catcher to join their offense," he said. "Last year, Darius Slayton had PPR value solely because there just weren't any other players around challenging him for targets. Jones should lean on Waller in the passing attack. Obviously, Travis Kelce is going to be the top tight end in fantasy drafts yet again. Waller should find himself in the mix for that second tier of tight ends from his talent and the amount Jones will likely be checking down."

Waller isn't without risk, both for his new team and fantasy managers. Injuries have long been an issue with the 30-year-old, who has averaged seven missed games per season over the past two years. Last year, the Giants were 25th in the league in pass attempts, and only one player on the team (running back Saquon Barkley) had more than 75 targets.

Still, if Waller hits the 100-target mark, it would likely mean a fantasy bonanza. Waller has logged two 100-target seasons, and he topped 1,100 receiving yards and was a top-five PPR tight end in both of those years.

Cole Kmet had something of a coming-out party last year in Chicago. His reception and yardage numbers actually dipped relative to his sophomore season, but he scored a career-high seven touchdowns, which was tied for third among all tight ends. All told, Kmet's 50/544/7 stat line ranked eighth in PPR points among tight ends.

Building on that success in 2023 could be difficult, though. In addition to bringing in D.J. Moore, the Bears also signed veteran tight end Robert Tonyan. And given what those two do best, Parker Hurley of Bear Goggles On expects Kmet to spend more time as in-line blocker than a pass-catcher.

"It is fair to say that Tonyan with Justin Fields and Kmet with Aaron Rodgers may have yielded different results. More than that, Kmet is going to start and will get plenty of passing-game work compared to Tonyan," he said. "However, when the two are on the field together, you can expect Tonyan to be flexed out or running a route, while Kmet is chipping or staying in to block.

"When you add in that the Chicago Bears added D.J. Moore, and that will make Chase Claypool more of a depth wideout, or almost a pass-catching tight end as well, you could see Cole Kmet having a step back as a fantasy football player."

On some level, it's rather ironic that it's Tonyan who could wreck Kmet's fantasy value. Tonyan had a breakout season of his own in 2020, scoring 11 touchdowns. In the two seasons since, Tonyan has more missed games (nine) than touchdowns (four).

However, the Bears had the lowest-volume passing attack in the NFL last season. Between Moore and Tonyan's arrival, Kmet may not even see the 69 targets he got a year ago.

Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on Twitter at @IDPSharks.