After drop in numbers city questions census results

ZANESVILLE — According to the US Census Bureau, the population of the City of Zanesville dipped from 25,487 to 24,765 between 2010 and 2020, a loss of 722 people.

The number has local officials concerned. Not just because a lot of grant and other funding is dependent on population, but because they don't believe the numbers are accurate.

The loss of population could mean loss of funding, Zanesville Mayor Don Mason said. "Everything is always per capita, so it would jeopardize all of our funding." This includes annual funding from the state, grant programs, and things like the CARES Act. Had the census been released before the CARES Act was disbursed, the city would have lost about half a million dollars, he said. The census count also affects redistricting, a process city council has already begun.

"This was not a normal census," said Matt Schley, the city's community development director. A typical census starts with a mailed questionnaire, then field workers follow up with in-person visits to homes that don't return the questionnaire or fill it out via the census website. Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, "the city has been unable to confirm if and where census takers were able to go door-to-door in critical areas of the city to obtain census data," Schley said.

According to material provided by the Census Bureau, Zanesville had a 63.4% overall self response rate, and a 38.7% internet response rate. Statewide, Ohio had a 70.7% response rate, and a 54.7% internet response rate.

Over the last 40 years, the city's population has been trending downward, from 28,655 in 1980 to 25,586 in 2000.

• 1980 28,655

• 1990 26,778

• 2000 25,586

• 2010 25,487

• 2020 24,765

Since the field data was absent, the bureau filled in the gaps as best they could, Schley said. If the bureau knew there was a housing unit present, they would assign the average number of occupants to it, three, and use that information to extrapolate the city's population. But without census takers getting into the field, a large number of housing units were counted as vacant, some 1,254.

More: Regional housing market boomed in 2021 amid Zanesville citywide housing shortage

Zanesville Mayor Don Mason has said the lack of housing is one of the biggest issues facing the city. A housing needs assessment done for the city in 2019 found the city short of housing in all categories.

"If they had said there 100 vacant housing units, I would have said they were a little high," he said. "There is no way there are more than 1,200."

That would mean 10% of the city's 12,157 housing units, from apartments and condos to single family homes, are vacant.

Both Mason and Schley believe the city's congregate living facilities, specifically nursing homes and assisted living facilities, are undercounted as well. The census found there was a drop of about 100 people living in those facilities, but there were two nursing homes built in the city between 2010 and 2020, and Mason believes both are full.

The Oaks at Northpointe was one of those facilities. It was built to hold as many as 101 residents. Primrose Retirement Community was completed in 2013. It's 65 rooms currently hold 87 residents.

Captain David Suciu runs the Muskingum County Jail. He conducted a phone interview with the census bureau in 2020, but the on-site visit was cancelled due to COVID-19. He said the jail population has been steady for the last decade, with an average daily population between 170 and 190 inmates. The population was down slightly in 2020, to about 161, due to COVID-19, but in 2021 the jail was back up to an average daily population of 194. This year the average daily population dipped again, but the jail was closed for six weeks following the fire at the neighboring Masonic Temple.

Between 2010 and 2020, the Zanesville City jail averaged a daily population of about 70 people, said Ben Lambes, who oversees the jail. Recently the number has been reduced thanks to changes in Ohio law, but as of the end of April, there were about 54 people in the jail, he said.

Mason said he believes the south end of the city has been undercounted. According to the census data being used to draw redistricting maps, the city's third ward lost 278 people since the last census. It is the city's smallest by area, and therefore most densely populated ward.

The city's second ward lost 112 people. Both wards are south of the Licking River, and both are areas underserved by broadband, making filling out online census information more difficult, Mason said.

The city's fourth ward straddles the western side of the city, from Ridge Road up to Locust Avenue and an area near Zanesville High School. It lost 47 people. The fifth ward, the most northerly, includes an area on Northpointe Drive that saw residential and commercial development over the last decade. It gained 378 people. The Sixth and First wards gained 41 and 18 respectively.

The city has not demolished enough houses to account for the numbers, Schley said. To account for the third ward alone, using an average occupancy of 3, the city would have had to have demolished properties containing 92 housing units over the last ten years. The city usually demolishes 5-8 houses a year city-wide.

Most of those houses have been abandoned for years, Schley said, and there is a chance that some would have been vacant for the last census. "We just demolished a house on Ridge that has been vacant for 18 years," he said.

To try and reconcile what the city believes the population of the city is and number provided by the census bureau says it is, the city will request a special census in the areas the city believes is miscounted. "The city provides the census bureau a list of places we find inconsistencies with the data compared to local data," Schley said.

To help, the city has contracted with Urban Decision Group of Westerville, who did the city's housing needs assessment in 2019. The company will compare data from the 2010 and 2020 censuses, and identify areas where the data, when compared to local knowledge, "doesn't add up," Schley said. They will sift through things like water accounts and compare them to the census data. Schley said water bills are a good way to determine population. A property being billed for the minimum use could be vacant, but by examining usage over time, it can be determined to a high degree of accuracy the number of people who live at a given property.

The city will submit a report to the Census Bureau in 2023, the earliest allowable by federal law, and request a special census in the areas the city believes are undercounted. If they accept the data, the bureau will do another census, and give the city an amended population count. Thus the city will have a 2020 census, and a 2023 special census with an updated population count.

"You start to add all these things together, you start painting this picture and start thinking maybe these numbers aren't accurate. Maybe we declined in population, maybe we grew," Schley said. "But we are fairly certain we didn't drop 700 people. That's a lot of people to lose in ten years."

ccrook@gannett.com

740-868-3708

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This article originally appeared on Zanesville Times Recorder: After drop in numbers Zanesville officals questions census results