A disturbance could form in the Gulf of Mexico. Will it dump rain or stay offshore?

A system of storms in the Gulf of Mexico has a 20% chance of tropical development over the next seven days, the National Weather Service in New Orleans said Tuesday night.

Regardless of strength, the disturbance has the possibility to dump heavy rains in Gulf Coast states, including Mississippi and Louisiana, early next week if it moves ashore.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami said it’s too soon to tell for now.

“If anything were to form, this wouldn’t be until at least early next week. While this COULD bring heavy rain into the area, it will have to compete with our current weather pattern,” the NWS New Orleans said on Twitter. “f the high pressure stays as strong as it currently is, the heavy rain will likely stay off shore away from land.”

If the high pressure weakens, then the heavy rain could move inland, the NWS said.

The NHC says there’s nothing to worry about now, but remain weather aware and check back to hurricanes.gov for the latest tropical updates.

A system of storms in the Gulf of Mexico has a low chance for development, the National Weather Service in New Orleans said on Tuesday, Aug. 15, 2023.
A system of storms in the Gulf of Mexico has a low chance for development, the National Weather Service in New Orleans said on Tuesday, Aug. 15, 2023.