Could a tropical wave be headed to Florida? National Hurricane Center watching 6 systems
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Hurricane Franklin and Tropical Storm Jose are no more, but the tropics are still bubbling with two tropical storms, not to mention the remnants of Hurricane Idalia and a disturbance that could become the next named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.
Tropical Storm Katia formed Saturday morning, becoming the 11th named storm of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season. Gert regained its tropical storm status as it spins in the central Atlantic. Neither is expected to maintain its status for long.
The two are among six systems the National Hurricane Center is monitoring in the Atlantic.
Swells generated by Idalia are still expected to affect the southeastern U.S. coast over the next few days and cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Looking forward, the NHC expects a tropical wave south-southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands to move west across the Atlantic and develop into a tropical depression over the next week. Its early projected path could put it on track to affect Florida, but it's too early to be certain.
The next storm names would be Lee, Margot and Nigel.
Perry, Florida after Idalia: From 'Tree Capital of the South' to 'Florida Chainsaw Massacre'
Two other tropical waves are active in the Caribbean.
Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 2 p.m.:
Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia
Location: 95 miles east-southeast of Bermuda
Maximum wind speed: 60 mph
Direction: east at 8 mph
The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Idalia is near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 63.4 West. Idalia is moving north near 8 mph, and this general motion is expected to continue through the day.
A faster northeastward motion is forecast to begin on Sunday, followed by a turn to the north-northeast and north on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, Idalia will remain near Bermuda on Saturday, then begin to move away from the island Saturday night and Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph with higher gusts. Little chance in strength is forecast during the next few days.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles from the center and are occurring in Bermuda. An elevated observing site at the National Museum of Bermuda recently reported sustained winds of 57 mph and a gust of 68 mph.
The estimated central pressure is 999 mb.
Spaghetti models for Post Tropical Cyclone Idalia
Tropical Storm Gert
Location: 710 miles east-southeast of Bermuda
Maximum wind speed: 50 mph
Direction: north-northeast at 3 mph
The center of Tropical Storm Gert is located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 54.1 West. Gert is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph. A faster northward to north-northeast motion is expected to begin Saturday and continue into Monday.
Satellite wind date indicate the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected before Gert is forecast to open up into a trough of low pressure Monday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb.
Tropical Storm Katia
Location: 660 miles north-northwest of Cabo Verde Islands
Maximum wind speed: 50 mph
Direction: north-northwest at 12 mph
The center of Tropical Storm Katia is located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 29.7 West. Katia is moving north-northwest near 12 mph. A turn to the northwest is expected Saturday, and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through Monday.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph with higher gusts. Weakening is expected to begin by early Sunday, and the system could degenerate into a remnant low on Monday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1,000 mb.
What else is out there and where are they?
Disturbance 1: A tropical wave located over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system by the middle of next week, and a tropical depression is likely to form while it moves west to west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph over the eastern and central portions of the tropical Atlantic.
Formation chance through 48 hours: low, 20 percent.
Formation chance through seven days: high, 70 percent.
Tropical wave 2: A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W from 20N southward, or near Yateritas, Cuba. It is moving west at 11-17 mph. Scattered moderate convection is in the southwest Caribbean south of 10N between 76W and 83W, between Cuba and the Cayman Islands.
Tropical wave 3: A newly analyzed eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W, from 18N southward, or near Isla de Mona. It is moving west at 11-17 mph. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N to 16N between 64W and 66W, south of Puerto Rico between Guadelope and St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
Who is likely to be impacted?
It's too early at this time to determine if there will be any impact to the U.S. from the tropical waves.
Forecasters urge all residents to continue monitoring the tropics and to always be prepared.
Weather watches and warnings issued in Florida
When is the Atlantic hurricane season?
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
When is the peak of hurricane season?
The peak of the season is Sept. 10, with the most activity happening between mid-August and mid-October, according to the Hurricane Center.
Tropical forecast over the next seven days
Excessive rainfall forecast
What's out there?
Systems currently being monitored by the National Hurricane Center.
What's next?
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This article originally appeared on Treasure Coast Newspapers: NHC tracking Tropical Storm Katia, Gert, Idalia in Atlantic
