Could Republican Jeff Landry win Louisiana governor's race outright in jungle primary?
An independent pollster for the Louisiana governor's race said a survey released this week suggests Republican Attorney General Jeff Landry could pull off an outright win in the Oct. 14 primary election rather than having the final result decided in the Nov. 18 runoff election.
The poll, commissioned by Nexstar Media's Louisiana TV stations and conducted by Emerson College Polling, showed Landry with 40% of the support of those surveyed followed by Shawn Wilson, who has consolidated Democratic support, with 22%.
Republicans Sharon Hewitt and Stephen Waguespack followed with 5% each, followed by Republican John Schroder at 4% and Independent Hunter Lundy at 3%.
In what's known as Louisiana's "jungle primary," voters choose from all candidates regardless of party and the top two advance to the head-to-head runoff election unless someone receives more than 50% of the vote, which is nearly impossible for an open seat. Democratic Gov. John Bel Edwards is term limited and can't run again this cycle.
Though there is little dispute that Landry crafted a lead out of the gate because of prolific fundraising and early endorsements from the Louisiana Republican Party and former President Donald Trump, this is the first poll showing him at 40%.
That led Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, to tell Nextstar he believes Landry is within striking distance of winning the Oct. 14 primary outright.
“In the nonpartisan jungle primary in Louisiana where a candidate needs 50% support to avoid a general election, Landry is within reach of that threshold while Wilson is trying to force a runoff,” Kimball told Nexstar. “With 18% of voters undecided, a runoff election hangs in the balance.”
Prominent Louisiana pollster John Couvillon, who has already surveyed the Louisiana governor's race twice, told USA Today Network that while an outright win for Landry is possible, he believes it remains unlikely.
"I'm not at all convinced there's a 51% primary scenario out there, though I believe Landry's 40% number is certainly realistic," said Couvillon, who said his most recent governor's race poll showed Landry at 35% more than two weeks ago. "He started with a lead and it's not shrinking; it's growing."
Couvillon said he's less convinced that Wilson's number is as low as 22%.
"That's a bright yellow flag to me," he said. "I'm showing him at 30%."
But Couvillon said the Nexstar poll should concern the other Republicans in the race who have showed little or no movement. "It can create momentum and a bandwagon effect from voters who see it and freeze donors who are worried that a Landry win could become inevitable," he said.
The other Republicans in the race said it's too early in the race to put credibility in the polls.
"The election just got started," said Hewitt, a state senator from Slidell, during candidate qualifying last week. "Up until now voters haven't been paying attention. I'm taking my case to voters."
"All of the experts in the smoke filled rooms who said this election was decided six month ago are wrong," said Waguespack, whose campaign launched its first major TV ad buy this week. "The truth is we're reaching a couple of pivot points now (official qualifying and Labor Day).
"Historically people really start paying attention after Labor Day. I think you'll begin to start seeing a lot of movement."
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Greg Hilburn covers state politics for the USA TODAY Network of Louisiana. Follow him on Twitter @GregHilburn1
This article originally appeared on Monroe News-Star: Can Jeff Landry win Louisiana governor race outright in jungle primary?
