Pac-12 football predictions: Top contenders, sleepers and championship picks
It’s the final season of the Pac-12 as we know it.
The conference’s demise has been well-documented. USC and UCLA accepted invitations to the Big Ten last summer, and commissioner George Kliavkoff could not land a suitable television deal to keep the league intact. Colorado’s departure to the Big 12 caused a chain reaction with Oregon and Washington following the two Los Angeles schools to the Big Ten and Arizona, Arizona State and Utah opting for the security of the Big 12.
Left behind are just Cal, Oregon State, Stanford and Washington State. But for one final season, these 12 will remain together — and the competition on the field has the chance to be incredibly compelling. The Pac-12 hasn’t had a team in the College Football Playoff since 2016, but there are several teams talented enough to break that streak before the conference potentially crumbles for good.
Previously: AAC, ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, C-USA, MAC, Mountain West, Sun Belt
USC (+200 to win the Pac-12)
2022 record: 11-3 (8-1 Pac-12)
National title odds: +1400
Over/under: 10 wins
Upon his arrival at USC, head coach Lincoln Riley picked up right where he left off at Oklahoma. He put an incredible offense on the field, but his team's defense was incredibly porous. Even with the defense as bad as it was, the Trojans were a Pac-12 title game victory over Utah away from reaching the College Football Playoff.
The main reason for the success was Caleb Williams, the QB who followed Riley from OU to USC and won the Heisman. Williams will play one more year of college ball before likely becoming the No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. He’s got a great group with him on offense with three of USC’s top four receivers back, as well as Arizona transfer Dorian Singer (66 catches, 1,105 yards, 6 TDs). The Trojans also added ex-South Carolina RB Marshawn Lloyd and beefed up the line with several other transfers.
Speaking of transfers, Riley hit the portal hard on defense yet again but opted to keep much-maligned coordinator Alex Grinch in place for another season. It remains to be seen if that will be a regrettable decision. Nonetheless, transfers like DE Anthony Lucas (Texas A&M), DTs Bear Alexander (Georgia) and Kyon Barrs (Arizona), LB Mason Cobb (Oklahoma State) and CB Christian Roland-Wallace (Arizona) should all be instant impact players for the Trojans.
Those transfers need to come through for USC to win the Pac-12 and potentially get to the playoff.
Washington (+325)
2022 record: 11-2 (7-2)
National title odds: +4000
Over/under: 9.5 wins
Washington had an incredible turnaround in its first season under head coach Kalen DeBoer, going from 4-8 in 2021 to 11-2.
Washington’s offense was excellent and most of that unit is back in 2023. Michael Penix is a legitimate Heisman candidate at quarterback and the Huskies have one of the best receiver groups in the country with Rome Odunze, Jalen McMillan and Ja’Lynn Polk all returning. One concern, though, is the three departed starters on the offensive line. Both tackles are back, but UW must replace all three starters on the interior.
Washington wasn’t very good defensively last fall, but the personnel up front is very promising. The edge duo of Bralen Trice and Zion Tupuola-Fetui is excellent and the Huskies are very deep on the interior of the D-line. The secondary struggled in 2022 and may be a weakness again in 2023. It’s probably the biggest concern on the team and could be a huge issue when the Huskies face USC on the road on Nov. 4.
Oregon (+325)
2022 record: 10-3 (7-2)
National title odds: +4000
Over/under: 9.5 wins
Oregon won 10 games in its first season under head coach Dan Lanning, but the two heartbreaking late-season losses to Washington and Oregon State kept the Ducks from reaching greater heights. Can they take that step in 2023?
Bo Nix is back at QB and he’s got Bucky Irving back at RB and a loaded group of receivers highlighted by Troy Franklin, Kris Hutson and Troy transfer Tez Johnson. The Ducks need to replace four starters on the offensive line, but between players returning from injury and transfer additions, there may not be a big step back with that unit. Keep an eye on Josh Conerly at left tackle. He’s just a sophomore, but he could be the best pro prospect on the team.
The strength of this year’s defense is up front, though the pass rush was an issue last year. It’s a veteran group that only got better with South Carolina transfer Jordan Burch joining at defensive end. Other transfers expected to have major roles for include ex-Iowa LB Jestin Jacobs, safeties Tysheem Johnson (Ole Miss) and Evan Williams (Fresno State) and CB Nikko Reed (Colorado).
The top of the Pac-12 is loaded, and the Ducks should be in the mix for a conference title game berth again.
Utah (+500)
2022 record: 10-4 (7-2)
National title odds: +8000
Over/under: 8.5 wins
Utah is coming off back-to-back Pac-12 titles, but the status of QB Cam Rising looms large as the season gets closer. Rising suffered a torn ACL in the Utes’ Rose Bowl loss to Penn State and is working to return for the Week 1 showdown vs. Florida. If Rising is ready to go, he will lead a promising Utes offense that includes RB Ja’Quinden Jackson, WR Devaughn Vele and the TE duo of Brant Kuithe and Thomas Yassmin.
The Utes should be excellent on the offensive line, and the defensive front looks just as strong. Utah wasn’t quite as feisty when defending the run last fall, but there’s reason for optimism that the unit will return to its usual level of play. Elsewhere on defense, Lander Barton and Stanford transfer Levani Damuni lead a strong linebacker group while Cole Bishop and Sione Vaki are back at safety with Ole Miss transfer Miles Battle joining the group at corner.
This is a very good team, but the schedule could ultimately cost the Utes a Pac-12 three-peat before the move to the Big 12. The Utes have Florida and Baylor in the non-conference and then have to play road games versus USC, Oregon State and Washington. The Utes also will host Oregon and UCLA. It’s a slog.
Oregon State (+1000)
2022 record: 10-3 (6-3)
National title odds: +20000
Over/under: 8.5 wins
Oregon State won nine games combined in its first three seasons under Jonathan Smith. In the last two, the Beavers are 17-9, including a historic 10-3 campaign last fall. It was OSU’s first 10-win season since 2006 and just the program’s third 10-win season ever.
How can the Beavers top that? For one, Oregon State has lots of room for growth in the passing game and brought in Clemson transfer DJ Uiagalelei to help that cause at QB. Unfortunately for Uiagalelei, his group of receivers is not very deep. On the other hand, the Beavers return four offensive line starters and excellent RBs Damien Martinez and Deshaun Fenwick. OSU should have one of the top rushing attacks in the Pac-12.
On defense, the Beavers have solid depth up front but need to produce more sacks and improve vs. the run. That won’t be easy with star linebacker Omar Speights now at LSU. The Beavers also lost a few starters in the secondary, but return safety Kitan Oladapo and get Alton Julian back from injury. If Oregon State is going to compete for a Pac-12 title, it’s going to have to avoid a step back on defense.
UCLA (+1400)
2022 record: 9-4 (6-3)
National title odds: +20000
Over/under: 8.5 wins
After some rough years to start the Chip Kelly era, UCLA is 17-8 over the past two seasons and has the personnel to compete with the big boys in the Pac-12.
Kelly has to figure out the starter at QB after five seasons with Dorian Thompson-Robinson. He’s got a few good options with Ethan Garbers (DTR’s backup for two seasons) and freshman Dante Moore, a top-five recruit in the class of 2023. Elsewhere, the Bruins brought in heralded transfers like ex-Ball State RB Carson Steele and ex-Cal receiver J. Michael Sturdivant. There are also a few transfers expected to start immediately on the offensive line.
On the other side, the defense has a pretty impressive front seven. If those guys can get to the QB more consistently, it should take some pressure off a veteran secondary that has struggled.
From a schedule perspective, the Bruins avoid Oregon and Washington and play each of the bottom-six projected teams in the conference. Don’t be surprised if UCLA is in contention for a spot in the Pac-12 title game in late November.
Washington State (+3000)
2022 record: 7-6 (4-5)
National title odds: +50000
Over/under: 6 wins
Washington State had an up-and-down 2022 campaign, its first with Jake Dickert as the full-time head coach. The Cougs handled the bottom-tier teams in the Pac-12 and had some near-upsets over contenders like Oregon (44-41) and Utah (21-17).
The WSU offense was inconsistent, but Dickert made a very intriguing hire by bringing in Ben Arbuckle as his OC. Arbuckle led a high-powered passing attack at Western Kentucky and could help QB Cam Ward take his game to another level, especially as a downfield passer. For the system to run smoothly, WSU needs to be better on the offensive line.
The defense has some intriguing pieces like Brennan Jackson and Ron Stone at DE and CB Chau Smith-Wade, but there could be a step back with the team’s top three LBs and top three DTs all departing.
WSU avoids USC and Utah and has a manageable home league schedule, so a bowl seems likely. But the Cougars are a clear step below the top six teams in the Pac-12.
Cal (+6600)
2022 record: 4-8 (2-7)
National title odds: +50000
Over/under: 5 wins
Cal posted winning records in 2018 and 2019 and looked poised for a big year in 2020, but that season was derailed by the pandemic. It’s been an uphill climb ever since as the Golden Bears are 9-15 (6-12 Pac-12) over the past two seasons.
Cal has been solid defensively under Justin Wilcox, who is now in his seventh season as coach. That should be the case again in 2023 with Jackson Sirmon back at LB alongside a pair of transfers — David Reese (Florida) and Sergio Allen (Clemson). In the secondary, Cal added safety Patrick McMorris, a two-time all-Mountain West selection at San Diego State, and CB Nohl Williams, a three-year starter at UNLV.
For Cal to get back to a bowl, the offense must improve. Wilcox moved on from Bill Musgrave after three seasons and hired the well-traveled Jake Spavital as offensive coordinator. Jadyn Ott and Jeremiah Hunter are fun weapons at RB and WR, but the QB situation needs to be resolved.
Arizona (+8000)
2022 record: 5-7 (3-6)
National title odds: +50000
Over/under: 5 wins
Coach Jedd Fisch has quickly made progress at Arizona, going from 1-11 in 2021 to 5-7 in 2022. The next step is to guide the Wildcats to their first bowl game since 2017.
The offense put up a lot of points last fall and should do the same in 2023 with Jayden de Laura back at QB. At receiver, Dorian Singer left for USC but Jacob Cowing and Tetairoa McMillan both return, as does Michael Wiley at RB. There are three starters back up front, but the line is still the biggest concern on the offense.
The defense was one of the Pac-12’s worst last season, so Fisch hit the transfer market hard. The Wildcats will be a lot bigger on the defensive line, with additions like Bill Norton (Georgia) and Tyler Manoa (UCLA) on the interior. Arizona also added ex-Oregon linebacker Justin Flowe, a former five-star recruit who has had trouble staying healthy. Losing CB Christian Roland-Wallace to USC was a tough blow, but Ephesians Prysock played well as a freshman.
If this defense takes a step forward, that coveted bowl berth may be in reach.
Arizona State (+10000)
2022 record: 3-9 (2-7)
National title odds: +50000
Over/under: 4.5 wins
ASU finished 3-9 last year but the Herm Edwards experiment officially ended after the ugly Week 3 home loss to Eastern Michigan. To clean up the mess, ASU hired Kenny Dillingham, a 33-year-old Arizona native who most recently was the offensive coordinator at Oregon.
Dillingham hit the transfer portal hard but is likely in for a rebuilding year. Notre Dame transfer Drew Pyne is competing with Trenton Bourguet to start at quarterback, and the Sun Devils have some pretty nice pieces at the skill positions, including WR Elijhah Badger, WR Xavier Guillory (Idaho State), TE Jalin Conyers and RB Cameron Skattebo (Sacramento State). The offensive line, however, could really struggle.
In a savvy hire, Dillingham brought in Brian Ward from Washington State to run his defense. The Sun Devils have some decent pieces at defensive end and in the secondary, but it’d be a surprise if this wasn’t a bottom-half defense in the conference.
Colorado (+10000)
2022 record: 1-11 (1-8)
National title odds: +25000
Over/under: 3.5 wins
Deion Sanders arrived at Colorado with much fanfare and a major rebuilding effort ahead of him, and the Buffs made headlines for their massive transfer exodus. No matter how it went down, the overhaul was necessary if the Buffs want to compete in 2023. The 2022 team went 1-11 and was easily the worst Power Five team in the country.
Colorado’s transfer class significantly upgraded the talent on the roster. With Sanders’ son Shedeur leading the way at QB, the skill position group looks pretty solid on offense with guys like Alton McCaskill (Houston) and Kavosiey Smoke (Kentucky) at RB and USF transfers Xavier Weaver and Jimmy Horn at receiver.
There’s also former No. 1 recruit Travis Hunter, who will play both receiver and cornerback for the Buffs. Hunter’s NFL future is probably on defense, and he leads a completely revamped unit that has a slew of transfers who were mostly backups at Power Five schools.
The biggest question for Colorado is in the trenches, particularly on the offensive line. The depth there looks suspect. The schedule is tough, too. If Sanders can somehow get this team to a bowl game, it will be a significant accomplishment.
Stanford (+25000)
2022 record: 3-9 (1-8)
National title odds: +100000
Over/under: 2.5 wins
Stanford had a great run under David Shaw, but things deteriorated with consecutive 3-9 seasons that caused Shaw to step away. The Cardinal went a combined 3-15 in conference play the last two seasons and often were not competitive whatsoever. New coach Troy Taylor comes in via Sacramento State and has a significant rebuild ahead of him, and it got even tougher with the school’s conference status up in the air.
Taylor brings a much more creative offensive system with him, but the roster is in a pretty dire situation. QB Tanner McKee is off to the NFL, five offensive linemen transferred out and most of last year’s receiving corps is gone. The best weapons on offense are TE Benjamin Yurosek and RB EJ Smith, who is back from injury.
The defense was hit pretty hard by transfers, too, but there is some talent in the front seven. The secondary, however, looks like it will be a major liability.
Overrated team
Sam Cooper: Washington.
Nick Bromberg: Oregon.
Sleeper team
Sam: UCLA.
Nick: Oregon State.
Title pick
Sam: USC. Caleb Williams is the best player in the country, and I believe the USC upgraded its defense on every level. There's no way the Trojans will have the massive turnover differential they did last year, but the defense should be good enough for them to win a very competitive league.
Nick: USC. I make this pick with some hesitation because I want to see the USC defense in action before I can fully trust it, and I think the Trojans’ Pac-12 schedule is really tough. But they’re the most talented team in the conference and have the best quarterback.
