Breaking Down Playoff-Clinching Scenarios and the Most Likely Wild-Card Matchups
Just over two weeks remain in the 2021 NFL regular season. With 16 weeks (nearly) in the rearview, we would normally have a clear enough picture of the postseason field. This year brings an extra game of regular-season action, though, and a large middle class of teams leaves a lot unsettled.
Heading into Week 16, the Green Bay Packers were the only team to clinch a playoff spot as NFC North champions. The Dallas Cowboys then clinched a postseason berth with a San Francisco 49ers loss Thursday night.
The Kansas City Chiefs became the first and only team in the AFC to clinch a playoff spot Sunday, while the Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Arizona Cardinals joined the Packers and Cowboys in the NFC playoff field.
How will the final field stack up? Here's a look at how things currently stand and some predictions for the wild-card round matchups.
1. Kansas City Chiefs 11-4 (Z)
2. Tennessee Titans 10-5
3. Cincinnati Bengals 9-6
4. Buffalo Bills 9-6
5. Indianapolis Colts 9-6
6. New England Patriots 9-6
7. Baltimore Ravens 8-7
8. Los Angeles Chargers 8-7
9. Las Vegas Raiders 8-7
10. Miami Dolphins 7-7
11. Pittsburgh Steelers 7-7-1
12. Cleveland Browns 7-8
13. Denver Broncos 7-8
New York Jets 4-11 (eliminated)
Houston Texans 4-11 (eliminated)
Jacksonville Jaguars 2-13 (eliminated)
*Z=clinched division, X=clinched playoff spot
Here's how tight things are in the AFC: The Cincinnati Bengals have a one-game lead over the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North and own the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Ravens would be a playoff team if the season ended today, but both teams could be out of the playoffs by the end of Week 18.
The Bengals only need one more win to clinch the AFC North, but they have the Chiefs in Week 17 and a showdown with the Cleveland Browns in the season finale. Cleveland has lost two in a row but can still win the division if it wins out and Cincinnati falls to Kansas City.
The Chargers were upset by the Houston Texans on Sunday and lost a shot at the division crown in the process. Kansas City, meanwhile, can clinch the No. 1 seed in the conference with a win next week and a loss by the Tennessee Titans.
"This is the tough side of the NFL," Chargers coach Brandon Staley told reporters. "It's been a fight this entire season for us. It's going to continue to be that way. We still have a lot in front of us."
The Titans and Colts both won in Week 16, which means the AFC South is still undecided. However, Tennessee has two head-to-head wins over Indianapolis and can clinch the division with a win over the Miami Dolphins in Week 17.
The Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots are tied atop the AFC East, and neither can clinch in Week 17. Buffalo holds the tiebreaker edge, and both teams are in a great position with two weeks remaining.
As for the wild-card race, nothing is decided, though it feels like a near-lock that either Tennessee or Indianapolis will get in if it doesn't win the division. Seven teams are within one game of one another in the wild-card chase.
Bye: No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs
No. 7 Los Angeles Chargers at No. 2 Tennessee Titans
The Chiefs don't appear likely to lose down the stretch, which likely leaves Tennessee cemented as the No. 2 seed. The big question is whether Tennessee will get Derrick Henry back in time for the playoffs.
"Sources say that rehab for the All-Pro rushing champion is going so well that Henry is in line to return for the playoffs if Tennessee makes it in—or potentially Week 18 if the Titans face a win-and-in situation," NFL Network's Ian Rapoport wrote earlier this month.
Henry could make Tennessee a brutal matchup for the Chargers and their 29th-ranked run defense. L.A. is out of the playoffs right now, but a Ravens collapse seems not only possible but likely.
No. 6 New England Patriots at No. 3 Buffalo Bills
By losing to Buffalo, the Patriots also lost the AFC East for now. New England will be dangerous in the postseason but isn't likely to regain the division since Buffalo finishes at home against the Atlanta Falcons and New York Jets.
The Bills have a chance to jump Cincinnati, as the Bengals face the red-hot Chiefs in Week 17. If that happens, we're going to be treated to an exciting and physical Round 3 in a series that was split during the regular season. There's no telling which way this one could go.
No. 5 Indianapolis Colts at No. 4 Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals steamrolled the Ravens on Sunday and now control the AFC North. Even if they lose to the Chiefs in Week 17, they wouldn't need to worry about missing the playoffs if they beat the Browns in Week 18.
The Colts are separating themselves in the wild-card race and will be the visiting team that no one wants to see in the opening round. Armed with an emerging defense and a legit MVP candidate in running back Jonathan Taylor, the Colts could take a road path to the Super Bowl. In other words, Cincinnati should hope that it can find a way to upset Kansas City next weekend.
1. Green Bay Packers 12-3 (Z)
2. Dallas Cowboys 11-4 (Z)
3. Los Angeles Rams 11-4 (X)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11-4 (Z)
5. Arizona Cardinals 10-5 (X)
6. San Francisco 49ers 8-7
7. Philadelphia Eagles 8-7
8. New Orleans Saints 7-7
9. Minnesota Vikings 7-8
10. Atlanta Falcons 7-8
11. Washington Football Team 6-9
Carolina Panthers 5-10 (eliminated)
Chicago Bears 5-10 (eliminated)
Seattle Seahawks 5-10 (eliminated)
New York Giants 4-11 (eliminated)
Detroit Lions 2-12-1 (eliminated)
*Z=clinched division, X=clinched playoff spot
Things are a little clearer in the NFC. Five of seven playoff spots have been awarded and three divisions have been decided.
The Packers locked up the NFC North in Week 15, and their win over Cleveland on Saturday keeps them atop the conference. However, the Cowboys have a 9-1 conference record and could overtake Green Bay by winning out and getting one Packers loss.
Dallas clinched the NFC East before its Sunday night showdown with the Washington Football Team thanks to a strength-of-victory tiebreaker over the Philadelphia Eagles. Its win over Washington catapulted Dallas to the No. 2 seed in the conference.
Tampa Bay also clinched its division in a blowout win over the Carolina Panthers. The Buccaneers own the NFC South crown and are also still in the mix for the top seed and a first-round bye. The only way Green Bay can clinch the top seed is with a win and losses by both Dallas and Tampa in Week 17.
The NFC West is the only undecided division, though both the Rams and Cardinals have locked up playoff berths. The Rams currently own the division lead and can clinch a home playoff game with a win over the Ravens and a Cardinals loss in Week 17.
While we know that either the Rams or the Cardinals will be in as a wild-card team, the race for the final two spots is still unclear. The San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles both sit at 8-7, and the Saints can get there with a win over Miami on Monday.
The Eagles could earn a wild-card berth in Week 17, but they'll need help. They'll need to beat Washington while the Saints and Minnesota Vikings both lose.
The NFC's middle class isn't as large as that of the AFC, but six teams are still alive for the final two playoff positions.
Bye: No. 1 Green Bay Packers
No. 7 New Orleans Saints at No. 2 Dallas Cowboys
The New Orleans Saints have a defense capable of knocking off Miami on Monday night. They then finish with winnable games against the Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons, and a 10-7 record is within reach.
However, the Saints aren't going to love a rematch with the Cowboys. Dallas' defense has been rolling, while Dak Prescott and the offense got back on track Sunday night versus Washington. Dallas won by 10 in the regular-season meeting with New Orleans and will likely be heavily favored if these two meet in the postseason.
No. 6 Philadelphia Eagles at No. 3. Los Angeles Rams
The Eagles have figured out how to build an offense around dual-threat quarterback Jalen Hurts, and that makes them dangerous both down the stretch and in the postseason. The Eagles have the league's most prolific rushing attack and the No. 11 scoring offense.
The Rams haven't clinched the NFC West just yet, but they're two wins away. The struggling Ravens are up next, followed by a critical matchup with the 49ers, who won the first matchup this season. If the Rams win the rematch—and take care of business against Baltimore—they'll win the division.
No. 5 Arizona Cardinals at No. 4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The Cardinals have lost three straight and face the Cowboys in Dallas in Week 17. However, they have already notched 10 wins and claimed a playoff spot. They also finish against an inconsistent Seattle Seahawks squad in Week 18.
The big question is whether Arizona can rebound enough to match points with Tom Brady and Co. The Buccaneers have had some off games this season and are dealing with multiple injuries—notably, Chris Godwin's torn ACL—but they are capable of putting up touchdowns in bunches. They're still in the mix for the No. 1 seed and have a legitimate chance to repeat as Super Bowl champs.
