Braves' Clutch Homers, Astros' Blown Chances Have World Series All but Locked Up

Through the first six-and-a-half innings of Game 4 of the World Series, it was hard to escape the sense that the Houston Astros would be fortunate to actually turn their 2-1 lead over Atlanta into a series-tying victory.

Well, go figure that they didn't.

Dansby Swanson and Jorge Soler made sure of that in the bottom half of the seventh inning, wherein they made the first lead change of this Fall Classic happen in style. First, Swanson went deep:

And then, it was Soler's turn:

From there, Atlanta's bullpen did what it's been doing throughout the entire postseason: shove. Luke Jackson retired the side in order of the eighth, and Will Smith did the same in the ninth to collect his sixth save in six tries for these playoffs.

Oh, the Astros had their chances on Saturday night.

They seemed poised for a huge game when they loaded the bases with just one out in the first inning, and that was hardly the last time they had traffic on the bases. But in the end, all they had to show for it was an 0-for-8 with runners in scoring position and 11 men left on base.

Though far from the only one, that's a big reason that this series is now 3-1 in Atlanta's favor rather than tied at 2-2.

Atlanta Players of the Game

Astros Players of the Game

Only One of These Teams Is Playing to Its Strengths

At the outset of the World Series, the Astros had a fairly obvious path to what would have been (and, to be fair, still might be) their second World Series championship in five seasons.

In a nutshell: get just enough pitching and otherwise let the offense go to town like it did in the regular season and in the first two rounds of the playoffs.

Houston outclassed everyone by scoring 863 runs amid the former, yet still outdid itself with an output of 67 runs in 10 games against the Chicago White Sox and Boston Red Sox. It wasn't all home runs either, though the Astros did average more than one of those per game. They more so had a relentless keep-the-line moving thing going on, batting .340 with runners on base and .360 with runners in scoring position.

If you've watched the first four games of the World Series, you might be wondering just where the heck this Astros offense has gone.

Sure, Houston "erupted" for seven runs in Game 2. But Atlanta has otherwise held the Astros to two runs in each of the other three games. There's precisely zero flukiness going on here. The Astros have hit only two homers and they're 4-for-31 with runners in scoring position.

Individually, you can point a finger at pretty much anyone not named Altuve. After going a combined 1-for-9 in Game 4, Alex Bregman and Carlos Correa are now 3-for-28 in the series. Yordan Alvarez, who was nigh unstoppable in the American League Championship Series, is suddenly 1-for-11 in his own right.

As for Houston's pitching, it's been...well, not bad. Atlanta has scored all of 13 runs in this series, and five of those were coughed just by Framber Valdez as he flopped out of the gate in Game 1.

But when a team isn't hitting, it's pitching needs to be so much more than "not bad" for the wins to come. Ergo, the wins aren't coming for Houston.

For its part, Atlanta has also had its issues with runners in scoring position. After going just 1-for-5 on Saturday, Brian Snitker's offense is just 5-for-25 in that department during this series. Better than the Astros, maybe, but still not good.

What's making up the difference, though, is the same thing that got Atlanta's offense through the regular season: home runs.

It's out-homered Houston 6-2 in this series, and it's very much on brand that those home runs have come from five different players. Especially after general manager Alex Anthopoulos went out and got Soler, Eddie Rosario, Joc Pederson and Adam Duvall at the trade deadline, Atlanta's power output was a group effort as nine players hit as many as five home runs in the last two months of the regular season.

Oh, and did you see the leather that Rosario flashed in the eighth inning to rob Altuve?

As the man himself said, according to James Wagner of the New York Times: "I feel right now that I’m Super Rosario."

That points to another thing that Atlanta has done well this series, as its defense has allowed just a .273 average on balls in play compared to .333 for Houston. This is yet another throwback to how Atlanta played down the stretch, as only the Los Angeles Dodgers converted balls in play into outs at a better rate after the trade deadline.

Granted, starting pitching has been and still looks like it could be Atlanta's downfall. Without ace right-hander Charlie Morton, who succumbed to a broken leg in Game 1, manager Brian Snitker has a tough call to make for Game 5. Either he can start left-hander Max Fried on three days' rest, or he can opt for yet another bullpen game headlined by an uninspiring opener.

Whatever the case, it's no small comfort that the "Night Shift" relief trio of A.J. Minter, Tyler Matzek and Smith will be standing by. Apropos of their nickname, they've been lights out this October:

The catch right now is that Matzek and Smith have pitched in each of the last two games and therefore won't be fresh if and when they're needed in Game 5. But since they've thrown only 26 and 29 pitches, respectively, Snitker might just be able to get away with trotting them out for the third time in as many days if he sniffs a chance to close out the series.

To this end, Atlanta can hope to ride not just its homer-happy offense, lockdown defense and clutch pitching, but also whatever mojo that it's had at Truist Park of late. In seven games at its home digs so far in these playoffs, Atlanta has yet to lose.

Even if Atlanta doesn't win Game 5, it'll still have history on its side as the series shifts back to Houston:

So, memo to the Astros: better wake up that offense, or else.

What's Next for Houston and Atlanta?

Game 5 will get underway from Truist Park on Sunday at 8:09 p.m. ET.

Neither team has officially announced its starting pitcher yet, though it would be an upset if Valdez didn't get the ball for Houston.

If the Astros win Game 5, Game 6 will be at Minute Maid Park on Tuesday. If Atlanta wins Game 5, that'll be that as the organization will have claimed its first World Series title since 1995.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.