Bowl Predictions 2021: Projecting CFP Playoff Field After Week 11 Games
The College Football Playoff selection committee should not spend much time debating the latest rankings, which are set to come out Tuesday night.
Each of the top seven teams in the CFP rankings won in Week 11, and only two programs in the top 15 suffered defeats.
The committee's job got much easier after the Oklahoma Sooners lost to the Baylor Bears. The Big 12 champion will have at least one loss after Lincoln Riley's team suffered its first defeat of the year.
The upcoming week should be straightforward for the committee as well since the Ohio State Buckeyes and Michigan State Spartans face off in a playoff elimination contest Saturday.
After that game, the committee will much have a much clearer picture of which teams will be contenders for the four playoff spots with two weeks left on the regular-season schedule.
College Football Playoff
Orange Bowl (December 31): No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Oregon
Cotton Bowl (December 31): No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Cincinnati
New Year's Six
Peach Bowl (December 30): Wake Forest vs. Ole Miss
Fiesta Bowl (January 1): Notre Dame vs. Michigan
Rose Bowl (January 1): Michigan State vs. Utah
Sugar Bowl (January 1): Oklahoma State vs. Alabama
The Georgia Bulldogs once again proved why they are the clear No. 1 team in the FBS in Week 11.
Kirby Smart's team blew out the Tennessee Volunteers, who some experts thought would test the UGA defense because of their fast-paced offense.
Tennessee moved the ball on the Bulldogs, but they were met with plenty of resistance inside the red zone.
Georgia is two games away from a likely SEC Championship Game battle with the Alabama Crimson Tide. Bama's path to Atlanta opened up after the Texas A&M Aggies lost to the Ole Miss Rebels. Alabama can afford a loss to either the Arkansas Razorbacks or Auburn Tigers because it has the head-to-head tiebreaker over Ole Miss.
The Bulldogs have passed every test put in front of them, and there is no reason to believe they can't handle Alabama on a neutral field. The Bulldogs have not allowed an opponent to reach the 20-point mark all season.
The biggest debate surrounding Georgia will be which team it plays in the national semifinal.
If the Oregon Ducks, Cincinnati Bearcats and Ohio State win out, they will form the rest of the top four. A two-loss Alabama would fall from No. 2 with a defeat at the hands of Georgia.
The committee is not required to rank Oregon ahead of Ohio State. Precedent was set for that decision Tuesday, when the Michigan Wolverines were placed ahead of Michigan State despite a head-to-head loss.
Ohio State would have four consecutive ranked wins on its resume, which would be far and away better than what Oregon has to offer.
The selection committee could be inclined to slide in Oregon at No. 4 in order to avoid a rematch from September. A rematch is possible, but if the committee isn't open to that idea, Oregon could fall into a matchup with Georgia.
Oregon likely has two games left against the Utah Utes, one on Saturday and the other in the Pac-12 Championship Game, and it still has to face the Oregon State Beavers in a tricky rivalry game.
If the Ducks emerge victorious from that stretch, they will undoubtedly be a playoff team. At that point, the committee would have to decide whether a rematch with Ohio State is warranted.
If Ohio State wins out, its resume would mirror those of top-ranked teams from previous seasons.
Had the Buckeyes not lost to Oregon, they likely would have been in the discussion for the No. 1 seed alongside Georgia, and there is a strong case to be made that they are the two best teams in the FBS.
Ryan Day's team already has two Top 25 victories on its resume, and it can earn a pair of top-10 wins versus Michigan State and Michigan in its next two games.
Additionally, the Big Ten West winner will likely land in the Top 25 in some capacity, so that would give Ohio State yet another quality win.
Even though they have a loss to Oregon, the Buckeyes should do enough in the eyes of the selection committee to jump the Ducks and take the No. 2 seed.
If the committee does not want a rematch, it could set up a juicy in-state matchup between the Buckeyes and Cincinnati, which is coached by former Ohio State player and coach Luke Fickell.
The committee typically does not value Group of Five teams, but Cincinnati's resume would not be too far off from matching Oregon's.
The Bearcats' win over the Notre Dame Fighting Irish looks better with each passing week, and the Houston Cougars should be ranked by the time the American Athletic Championship Game rolls around.
Oregon and Cincinnati each has one Top 25 win at the moment, and the Bearcats could be valued a bit more if they keep up an undefeated record.
In any other year, a team of Cincinnati's makeup would be good enough to jump a one-loss team by the end of the season.
Cincinnati's case could be bolstered by the fact that Oregon's loss to the Stanford Cardinal looks worse by the week considering Stanford is now 3-7 and at the bottom of the Pac-12 North.
Of course, this scenario could be put to rest if Cincinnati or Oregon loses, but it is worth considering avoiding an Oregon-Ohio State rematch to set up an all-Ohio semifinal that could produce a similar ratings draw.