Bold Predictions for Second Half of 2021 NFL Season
The first half of the 2021 NFL season has thrown out plenty of stunners that would have been classified as too bold if predicted before the season started.
Think, the Kansas City Chiefs crumbling under a Patrick Mahomes regression. Or four NFC teams sprinting out to 6-1 and 7-1 records, with two of those housed in the same division.
Rest assured the season's second half will offer plenty of surprises that currently classify as bold, too. With the league now past the trade deadline and standings starting to paint clearer pictures, things like coaching hot seats, season-long awards and the playoffs start to play a much bigger role in the discourse.
Here are a few bold predictions for the season's second half, from award winners to firings and Lombardi Trophies.
It's easy to write off the New Orleans Saints now.
Maybe too easy.
They found out after the trade deadline that star wideout Michael Thomas wouldn't be returning this season because of his ankle injury. That, after starting quarterback Jameis Winston tore his ACL.
But the Saints are 5-2, second only to 6-2 Tampa Bay in the NFC South. And they've already organically transitioned away from an overreliance on the passing game with Drew Brees retired. Winston only threw for 14 touchdowns over seven games while the offense ranked 31st with just 180.9 passing yards per game. Meanwhile, the defense picked off 11 passes while surrendering just 18.3 points per game (fourth overall).
Keep in mind maybe no team has overcome more adversity this year. The supposed rebuilders called Dallas home for a month after Hurricane Ida, played their "home" opener in Jacksonville, won in Seattle on a Monday night and then turned around on a short week and beat the Buccaneers.
So while it's easy to write off the Saints now that Trevor Siemian or Taysom Hill will take over under center, the blueprint for a contender was there regardless of the quarterback. Even in the tough NFC, the Saints should keep pacing for the playoffs.
Going winless in the NFL almost seems as improbable as going undefeated. Too much has to go right (or wrong) for teams to achieve perfection on either side of the win column, and luck plays a factor.
But it's hard to deny the Detroit Lions don't look like a candidate for the first-ever 0-17 season. (Of course, this same franchise also went 0-16 in 2008.)
Sure, the Lions have been a few missed field goals here or there from picking up a win, but the overarching picture is a brutally ugly one: they are 0-8 with a minus-110 point differential.
That's just the beginning. New QB Jared Goff has thrown just eight scores and six picks over eight games, he has little in the way of quality help and the defense is one of three units to let up 30 or more points per game on average.
The Lions have been within seven points in a game just twice this season, most recently taking a 44-6 whipping at home courtesy of a 3-5 Philadelphia team. The rest of the way, they're looking at games against all NFC North foes that have already beat them once, plus tough matchups with Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Arizona, Seattle and Green Bay.
This was always going to be a down year for a rebuilding club, but starting to look uncompetitive in bad games is a warning sign that the Lions might be able to "overcome" the luck factor and go winless.
Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will inevitably rebound and make the playoffs, right?
Right?
The Chiefs currently sit at 4-4 behind the five-win Las Vegas Raiders in the AFC West, a division that, by the way, features every team boasting at least four wins. The wild-card race already looks packed, and the AFC North is another division that could easily send multiple teams to the playoffs.
Even their wins have been a struggle, as they just hardly escaped the 2-6 New York Giants at Arrowhead by three points.
Mahomes has thrown 10 picks in eight games, flirting with his career-high of 12 that he needed 16 games to reach. It doesn't help that the defense has mustered just 11 sacks, tied for the second-worst mark in the league, allows an average of 27.5 points per game and has a minus-11 turnover differential, nearly the NFL's worst margin.
The rest of the schedule doesn't have one easy matchup left, either, as KC will face the Packers, Raiders (twice), Cowboys, Broncos (twice), Chargers, Steelers and Bengals.
Before the season, Cincinnati Bengals fifth overall pick Ja'Marr Chase said he wanted to shatter all the records.
Turns out he might just do that.
It also turns out the preseason outlook didn't get much right about the Bengals. Joe Burrow has looked great coming off a torn ACL, and he's on pace for nearly 40 touchdown passes for a team right in the thick of the playoff race. Only three passers threw for 40 or more scores last year, so if he keeps this pace and the Bengals make the playoffs, he might be looking at some individual hardware.
Then there's Chase, owner of 786 receiving yards and seven scores over eight games. He's made 14 plays of 20-plus yards and averages 20.7 yards per catch.
Along the way, he has posted the best seven-game start by a receiver since 1954 and totally changed the complexion of a Cincinnati offense that also happens to be complemented by an improved defense. The result is five wins in eight tries, including marching into both Pittsburgh and Baltimore and getting wins already.
The Bengals are one of the youngest teams in the league, and Burrow only just played his 17th career game. The arrow points up. He's pacing for awards, and so is Chase, with the rookie receiving record of 1,473 (Bill Groman, 1960) and 17 touchdowns (Randy Moss, 1998) still obtainable.
The NFL's "what have you done for me lately?" pressure might see multiple coaches let go before the season even ends.
While some teams were clearly headed for bad campaigns before the season kicked off (like the Texans), doing even worse than anticipated, making bad in-game decisions or locker room problems could mean the leash for coaches is shorter than anticipated.
Look at Detroit and Dan Campbell, where a bad season was obvious, yet flirting with 0-17 was not. Or look at the 2-6 start for Joe Judge and the New York Giants, a regression from last year's six wins. Jacksonville at 1-6 with one big Urban Meyer distraction already could be another candidate to watch, especially if the team struggles to develop first overall pick Trevor Lawrence. It's a similar story for Matt Nagy in Chicago after early mishandlings of Justin Fields.
This isn't exclusive to rebuilders, either. The 1-7 flop by the Miami Dolphins after 10 wins last season could have Brian Flores under fire. Ditto for the quietly struggling Washington Football Team at 2-6 after a playoff berth last year.
Penciling in Campbell and Flores before the season ends is fair enough, though it might not stop there.
The Dallas Cowboys have all the ingredients of a Super Bowl winner.
Most importantly, they have an elite passer under center. Dak Prescott is back and ripping it again to the tune of a 73.1 completion percentage with 16 touchdowns and four interceptions. His offensive line has improved, which has helped Ezekiel Elliott average 4.8 yards per carry with five touchdowns over 118 attempts. He's flanked by elite performers at the skill positions (CeeDee Lamb, Amari Cooper, Dalton Schultz), with the three boasting 30-plus receptions each while combining for 12 touchdowns.
Critical to the equation is the rejuvenated defense, which lets up an average of 23.1 points per game and has helped the team generate a plus-five turnover differential and plus-63 point differential.
The Cowboys' only loss of the season came in Week 1 on the road versus the defending champion Bucs, and they only lost by two. Even without Prescott last week, Dallas picked up a 20-16 road win over Minnesota with Cooper Rush starting under center.
A sweep of a bad NFC East is on the table, which would give the Cowboys at least 10 wins. While the rest of the NFC cannibalizes itself, Prescott and Co. might just be in a position to qualify for a bye.
Regardless of seeding, though, the Cowboys are stacked with playmakers on both sides of the ball, and Prescott can keep up with any passer in the league.