MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for Bellator 297.

Bellator 297 takes place Friday at Wintrust Arena in Chicago. The main card airs on Showtime following prelims on MMA Junkie.

Vadim Nemkov (16-2 MMA, 8-0 BMMA)

Yoel Romero (15-6 MMA, 2-1 BMMA)

Point of interest: The cost of counters

Point of interest: Winning the wrestling

Considering both fighters’ grappling backgrounds, no one should be surprised if someone ends up shooting a takedown in this contest.
For my money, that fighter will likely be Nemkov.

Indoctrinated into sambo since the age of 7, Nemkov has gone on to earn European, Russian, and world titles in combat sambo as an adult.

Though the judo black belt is obviously competent with clinch takedowns given his experience with gi jackets, Nemkov appears to have really embraced freestyle wrestling work in between camps, training with freestyle wrestlers like Magomedkhan Magomedov (2018 junior world champion in men’s 97 kg.).

Subsequently, Nemkov seems to have a rock-solid first layer of offense and defense for takedowns, often looking to hit inside or outside trip reversals after hoisting opposition off of his hips. And even against acclaimed folkstyle wrestlers, Nemkov shows no fear in regards to initiating scrambles or shooting doubles in order to ensure strong closes to frames.

However, he could get more than he’s asking for if he changes levels on Romero.

Aside from the aforementioned flying knees in the previous section, Romero can be a deceptively dangerous grappling test.

Despite primarily using his wrestling for defense purposes during large portions of his career, Romero hasn’t been beyond grappling striking threats in past performances. In fact, since getting acclimated to the Bellator cage, Romero has been much more willing to go to the ground with opponents.

Should Nemkov find himself on the bottom from a countered kick, he’ll need to be careful how he plays his cards given Romero’s vaunted ground striking.

But regardless of any perceived stylistic superiorities, I suspect that both men will be nearly impossible to meaningfully score on unless hurt first.

Point of interest: Odds and opinions

The oddsmakers and public are siding with the sitting champion, listing Nemkov -550 and Romero +390 via FanDuel.

Although I don’t disagree with who is favored, this line is getting dangerously wide for a Romero fight.

Aside from his knack for finding finishes out of nowhere in Round 3, Romero is a finishing threat in almost all phases of the MMA. That said, I still find myself leaning the other way.

Nemkov has been a fighter I’ve been high on for some time now, and I suspect that his range striking and footwork could pose problems for the Cuban contender.

Should Nemkov lean more into his footwork and jab in the circular cage, then I also believe that he’ll have more opportunities to turn the tide standing with well placed kicks to the legs and head of Romero.

I’m not sure if Nemkov will produce a finish since, so I’ll officially pick the Russian to retain his title by decision.

Prediction: Nemkov by decision

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for Bellator 297.

Story originally appeared on MMA Junkie