The Achilles' Heel for Men's College Basketball's Top 10 Teams

No men's college basketball team is perfect, especially this season.

Even the best of the best have fatal flaws. And in the NCAA tournament where everything boils down to matchups and not having a bad day at the wrong time, it's often the respective Achilles' heels more so than the respective strengths that determine a national champion.

So, what's the biggest thing to watch out for with the top title contenders?

Achilles' heels range from turnover/rebound margin to defensive lapses, too frequent offensive droughts and plenty in between.

Teams are listed in ascending order of AP Top 25 ranking.

Achilles' Heel: Rebounding

Once renowned for his teams' defensive prowess, head coach Shaka Smart has assembled an offensive juggernaut at Marquette. The Golden Eagles rarely commit turnovers (but still force a ton of them) and make their two-point attempts at the best rate in the nation.

However, poor rebounding has been a major problem for Marquette on more than one occasion.

In their six losses, the Golden Eagles have gone a cumulative minus-70 in rebound margin.

They did somehow outrebound Purdue by two in that close loss to the best rebounding team in the nation, but finishing minus-14 in each of the losses to Mississippi State and Xavier, minus-17 in the double-OT loss to Providence and minus-22 in the recent loss to Connecticut was undeniably a factor in their demise.

Marquette is capable of making up for that discrepancy on the glass. The Golden Eagles won the home games against Connecticut and Providence despite a combined minus-20 in rebound margin, scoring almost at will and winning the turnover battle en route to narrow victories.

It's definitely an issue, though. And if they run into a sure-handed team that can withstand their relentless ball pressure or a defense that can stifle their interior offense, it becomes even more of an issue.

Achilles' Heel: Defending the Paint

Baylor's offense? Top notch. Even though freshman phenom Keyonte George isn't the most efficient scorer in the world, he is surrounded by excellent shooters, offensive rebounders and role players in creating an offense that is thriving even in the loaded Big 12.

Baylor's defense, though?

That's another story, especially in the post.

The D-I average for two-point field-goal percentage is 50.1. Baylor's defense allows 52.7 percent, and it has been north of 54 percent in more than half its games played. In fact, the only Big 12 opponent that didn't make at least 54 percent of its two-point attempts against Baylor was West Virginia, which failed to reach that mark in both games against the Bears.

TCU made 30 two-pointers in its 88-87 win in Waco and shot better than 60 percent on them in the close call in Fort Worth. Kansas shot 63.9 percent on twos in that wild comeback victory last weekend. Marquette shot 65.7 percent inside the arc in blowing out the Bears in late November. Though it only took 22 shots inside the arc, Texas Tech made 15 (68.2 percent) of them in giving Baylor a battle in Lubbock.

And in "The Year of the Big Man," it's more than a little frightening to put any faith in a team that can't defend the paint, no matter how potent it may be on offense.

Baylor did recently get Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua back on the court, though.

"Everyday Jon" missed almost a full calendar year after a nasty knee injury suffered last February against Texas, but the 6'8" power forward is already making a solid impact back in his usual role as the primary frontcourt reserve. If he continues to play well and the interior defense improves, I probably will pencil the Bears at least into the Elite Eight, regardless of their draw.

Achilles' Heel: Defensive Meltdowns

Texas has some strong defensive metrics.

But those are deceptive season averages, combining some really impressive performances with some outright disasters.

On the latter front, the Longhorns gave up 116 points in regulation in a home loss to Kansas State in what was one of the worst defensive performances by a title contender that I can recall.

That wasn't a one-off nightmare, though.

Texas gave up 82 and 78 in the losses at Tennessee and Iowa State, respectively—two teams that are emphatically better on defense than they are on offense. The Longhorns also gave up 88 points in a recent loss to Kansas in which the Jayhawks shot just 2-of-10 from three-point range.

Throw in the nonconference games in which they allowed at least one point per possession against Illinois (understandable), Rice (less understandable) and Texas A&M-Commerce (are you kidding me?), and this defense has been laying an egg on an "at least once in every three games" basis for more than two months.

Texas has won more than enough games against quality opponents this season to feel like a team that could contend for a title. The Quad data has changed as teams have shifted around in the NET, but this past Thursday morning, the Longhorns were the only team in the nation with at least six wins against the top half of Quad 1.

But trusting this team to actually show up on defense for six straight games feels like a mistake liable to knock you out of your bracket pool before the first weekend has even finished.

Achilles' Heel: Occasional No-Shows

When Arizona gets into a groove, it's a thing of beauty. For the first few weeks of the season, this was, hands down, the most entertaining team to watch, averaging a blistering 97.5 points per game during a 6-0 start that included wins over Cincinnati, San Diego State and Creighton, which are well above-average on defense.

The Wildcats also dropped 89 points on Indiana and scored 75 against the nation's most efficient defense (Tennessee).

But when Arizona isn't in one of those high-octane rhythms, things can get ugly. And it ends up afflicting the Wildcats on both ends of the floor, as their worst defensive efforts tend to coincide with their poor shooting nights.

They only have four losses, but each of them came against a team unlikely to make the NCAA tournament. Each of them also snowballed in a hurry.

In the home loss to Washington State, the Cougars went on an extended 33-14 run that spanned halftime. In the road losses to Utah, Oregon and Stanford, there was at least one mini-run of about five minutes in each half of each game where Arizona could not get a defensive stop to save its life.

The average margin of those four losses was 14.0 points.

One would hope that getting motivated to give 100 percent effort won't be an issue in the NCAA tournament, but duds have been a little too common for Arizona over the past few months.

Achilles' Heel: Addicted to playing close games

Virginia hasn't come anywhere close to reaching 2021-22 Providence levels of only ever being able to win in dramatic fashion, but could the Cavaliers at least occasionally blow out some teams in a bad ACC?

Consistently beating good teams in close games is fine. Eight of Baylor's nine Quad 1 wins have been by seven points or fewer, and the Bears are a No. 1-seed candidate for it.

But Virginia has gone 0-4 in Quad 1 games since the beginning of December and is barely gutting out Quad 2 and Quad 3 games on a regular basis.

Virginia has had 17 games decided by single digits, at least going 13-4 in those close contests. And while narrowly beating both Baylor and Illinois on a neutral floor in November was commendable, twice struggling with Florida State and barely beating both Louisville and Notre Dame recently is much less commendable.

As far as a "why" is concerned, your guess is as good as mine.

The three-point defense is worse than usual, but the Cavs are still well above-average overall on defense, only allowing two opponents to reach 70 points in a game this season. And they have what should be a deadly combination of turnover-averse, rock-sharing, three-point-draining offense.

However, it never seems to be enough to put games out of reach like they consistently did at their peak four years ago.

The Cavaliers have won 11 of their last 12 games and have slipped 12 spots in the KenPom rankings in the process. Feels like a team that's doomed to suffer an early upset on a buzzer-beater.

Achilles' Heel: Physical Defenses

If you go into a game against Purdue thinking, "OK, we're going to shut down Zach Edey," you're going to be sorely disappointed. Even in the Boilermakers' four losses, the big man has averaged 23.5 points and 11.3 rebounds.

But if you go into a game against Purdue thinking, "Let's play super physical, maybe get Edey into foul trouble and probably cause issues for the backcourt tandem of freshmen Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer," now you're onto something.

Between the two losses to Rutgers and Northwestern (notably physical defenses), Smith and Loyer shot a combined 5-of-23 from the field with 11 assists and 10 turnovers. Loyer did drain a massive three-pointer late in the game against Rutgers, but that backcourt imploded down the stretch against the Wildcats and struggled to get anything going throughout the game against the Scarlet Knights.

That duo was also lackluster early in the year against another physical defense in West Virginia. Though Purdue got the win, Smith and Loyer finished that one at a combined 2-of-9 from the field with three assists and three turnovers.

Hard to imagine a first-round opponent being able to knock Purdue out of the dance, but plenty of teams are capable of mucking up a game with physicality and sending Purdue packing before the Elite Eight.

Achilles' Heel: Scoring in the paint against big frontcourts

The UCLA Bruins are outstanding on defense this season, but they are extremely dependent on two-point buckets, and they aren't actually that good at getting them against teams with size in the paint.

Per KenPom, 59.6 percent of UCLA's points come from two-point field goals, good for the 12th-highest rate in the nation. (Of note: The only team in the past five seasons to finish top-10 in that category and make the NCAA tournament as something other than a No. 16 seed was Kentucky last year, which, uh, ended poorly.)

Generally, the Bruins are pretty good inside the arc, but there have been six games in which they shot below 39 percent from two-point range: at Arizona, at Oregon, at Washington State, vs. Illinois and two games against USC. And in those six games, UCLA went 3-3, with each of the wins coming by single digits.

What do those five teams have in common?

They all rank top-25 in the nation in average height, per KenPom.

Now, it's not some guarantee that UCLA will struggle to score against taller teams. Stanford, Cal, Utah and Pepperdine also rank top-25 in average height, and the Bruins did just fine in the paint against those teams.

But when the driving guards get lost among the trees, UCLA is liable to run into major problems.

Between the six aforementioned games, Tyger Campbell shot 17-of-65 (26.2 percent) from inside the arc, while Jaylen Clark was only moderately better at 15-of-51 (29.4 percent).

And though Adem Bona is an intriguing NBA prospect, the 6'10" center is not a dominant post presence on offense. UCLA needs Campbell and Clark making efficient contributions in order to succeed.

Achilles' Heel: Dajuan Harris Jr.'s Inconsistency

The reigning national champions have a bunch of metronome-like contributors.

Jalen Wilson is the star who gives the Jayhawks at least 16 points and six rebounds pretty much every night. KJ Adams Jr. has blossomed into a legitimate force in the post, scoring in double figures way more often than not after a bit of a slow start to the year. Kevin McCullar Jr. is a defensive stalwart and a mighty fine rebounder and tertiary scoring option. And while Gradey Dick's scoring output oscillates from one game to the next, he's a great shooter and a plus perimeter defender.

And then there's Dajuan Harris Jr.

In Kansas' five losses, Harris shot a combined 4-of-23 from the field for nine points in 170 minutes. He did rack up 28 assists, but with 17 turnovers to go with those dimes.

When he posts an O-rating of 77 or higher, Kansas is 21-0.

When he doesn't reach 77, Kansas is 2-5.

Just so we're clear, a 77 O-rating isn't asking much from a veteran starting point guard. Baylor's Adam Flagler had just one off night below 77. Virginia's Kihei Clark has been at 80 or higher in all but one game. Texas' Marcus Carr has had two sub-85 duds and still finished north of 70 in both.

However, Harris has had four games below 55. And, yes, those are not coincidentally the four games that Kansas lost somewhat convincingly.

It's nice when Harris scores in double figures or posts way more assists/steals than turnovers, but Kansas doesn't need him to be a star in order to repeat as champs.

It just needs him to not be the reason it loses.

Achilles' Heel: Turnover Margin

For the most part, Alabama has reined in what was a major problem early in the year.

Through their first 13 games, the Crimson Tide committed 216 turnovers while forcing just 157. That's a cumulative margin of minus-59, or minus-4.5 per game. And there's little question that posting a minus-12 in that department was why they lost 100-90 against Gonzaga. (And, like, Gonzaga's defense isn't even good this year.)

In the process of destroying SEC competition over the next 12 games, though, Alabama posted a positive-11 turnover margin.

It seemed the Tide had addressed their biggest issue and emerged as the top candidate to win the national championship.

But in last week's loss at Tennessee, turnovers were a massive problem once again.

Alabama had 19 giveaways while generating just eight takeaways. And to make matters worse, Tennessee capitalized on those opportunities while Alabama didn't, finishing that 68-59 victory with a staggering 26-2 edge in points off turnovers.

Was it just an off night for Alabama against the most efficient defense in the nation or a vivid reminder that this team is not to be trusted against a top D?

This season, Alabama has played four games against teams that rank top-10 on KenPom in adjusted defensive efficiency: the Tennessee game, the game at Houston in which the Tide trailed by 15 in the second half before refusing to miss anything for 10 minutes while storming back for a win and the two games against Mississippi State, in which the Tide committed a combined 31 turnovers and darn near lost at home. (They won by 11 at MSU, but only because the Bulldogs missed 18 free-throw attempts.)

In two games against teams just outside the top 10 in adjusted defense, Alabama led Arkansas 65-63 with less than five minutes remaining and led Auburn 68-66 with less than four minutes remaining before putting both of those games out of reach in the end.

At some point in the tournament, they're going to run into a top defense. Watch out for that.

Achilles' Heel: Scoring droughts

Houston has become almost indisputably the best team in the country. The Cougars are elite on both ends of the floor, routinely dominating both the turnover and rebounding battle en route to an average scoring margin of 20 points per game.

From time to time, though, the offense short-circuits and needs a reboot.

Houston scored just three points in the final five minutes of the home loss to Temple, six points in the final seven minutes of the home loss to Alabama, 10 points in the final 11 minutes of a close call against Saint Mary's and was twice held scoreless for more than five minutes of a close call against Kent State.

It defies logic. Houston has one of the most efficient offenses in the country, a pair of bona fide stars in Marcus Sasser and Jarace Walker and one of the best offensive rebounding units in the nation. Dry spells on offense should be rare and brief for the Cougars, but they do occur.

The good news is only one of those games (the loss to Temple) came in the past two months. It seems they've worked out whatever kinks were causing problems in the middle of nonconference play.

Or perhaps it's just a product of playing in a league where no one else has a top-35 defense, making it still something to keep in mind when filling out those brackets next month?

Also of note: Houston allows three-point attempts at one of the highest rates in the country. And while the Cougars almost lead the nation in three-point percentage defense, you just never know when a South Florida is going to shoot 10-of-21, a Cincinnati is going to shoot 11-of-27 or a Temple is going to shoot a combined 20-of-51 between two games.

If something like that coincides with a scoring drought in the dance, adios Cougars.

Statistics current through the start of play Tuesday and are via KenPom.com, NCAA.com and Sports Reference unless otherwise noted.