5 High-Seed Teams Most at Risk of Losing Early in 2023 Men's NCAA Tournament

Upsets are a major reason why March Madness is so popular, but it's easy to forget the excitement of the underdog coincides with the pain of a crushing loss.

Every year, top-five seeds are unable to navigate the opening weekend of action—maybe not even the first round.

During the 2022 men's NCAA tournament, for example, five top-three seeds failed to reach the Sweet 16. Two more fifth-seeded programs lost in their opening game, too. And the beauty—or corresponding agony—is that it's an expected part of the Big Dance.

Although the 2023 bracket is far from finalized, several projected top-five seeds are already looking like treacherous teams in March.

Projected Seed: 4

Two weeks ago, it seemed Virginia would head to March as a steady, competent team. That perception is changing.

Since then, the Wahoos have barely escaped ACC cellar-dwellers Louisville and Notre Dame, been smoked at Boston College and lost at North Carolina. There's no question that UVA's cold streak on the perimeter has played a key part in the unimpressive 2-2 stretch.

History doesn't like this version of Virginia, either.

In eight NCAA tourney trips under Tony Bennett, UVA hasn't survived the opening weekend when it wasn't a No. 1 seed. The optimism felt in mid-February has basically vanished as the calendar turns to March.

Projected Seed: 4

How can Iowa State not be included?

Following a 13-2 start that featured a 4-0 record in Big 12 play, the Cyclones have stumbled again and again. They've dropped nine of the last 13 games, dipping to 17-11.

Because this sport is wonderfully nonsensical on occasion, Iowa State has managed to beat Kansas, Texas, Kansas State and TCU along the way. Those are merely three of the Big Ten's best programs, along with a TCU squad that is currently projected as a top-six seed. The best version of the Cyclones, clearly, is a very competitive team.

Nevertheless, the inconsistency of Iowa State's offense—one ranked 107th in adjusted efficiency, per KenPom.com, and 235th from the perimeter—is a concern that would be extremely risky to ignore.

Projected Seed: 3

The bracket is always most important, sure, but it'll be especially valuable when deciding on expectations for Tennessee.

Look, the Volunteers boast KenPom's top-rated defense. They've surrendered a paltry 56.7 points per game, lead the nation in three-point percentage allowed (24.7) and hold top-30 rankings in rebounding and steal rates. The unit is objectively nothing short of fantastic.

But, uh, about that offense.

Tennessee has shot 40 percent or worse in five of its eight February tilts. Not coincidentally, the Vols are 3-5 in those outings—and they endured a handful of other ghastly offensive days earlier this season.

At their absolute best, the Vols can be a defense-driven title contender. They'll also be exceedingly difficult to trust in March Madness.

Projected Seed: 2

On the opposite side of the conversation, Texas has little trouble scoring and a fair bit of difficulty preventing points.

Although the Longhorns don't have an efficient group of shooters, their perimeter depth is impressive. Marcus Carr, Sir'Jabari Rice, Timmy Allen and Tyrese Hunter each average 10-plus points and two-plus assists.

As with any team, a hot streak in March can overpower well-intended analysis. There's no doubt the Longhorns have that upside because of this quartet, especially if they're hitting long-range shots. It certainly won't hurt to have a stable of creators in late-game moments.

Texas, however, has practically had a defensive letdown every third or fourth game all season.

Again, like Tennessee, the now-unknown bracket is a key part of the discussion. But if the Horns find themselves in an offense-filled pod, the potential for an upset will be undeniable.

Projected Seed: 1

Nuance is the important point to remember here.

Do I believe Purdue will lose early? No. Based on the last couple of weeks, however, it's fair to suggest the all-too-familiar March disappointment is becoming a much higher risk.

For much of the season, Zach Edey atoned for the Boilers' shortage of perimeter threats. However, that weakness has been exposed lately with four losses in the last six games. Purdue is desperate for two of Braden Smith, Mason Gillis and Fletcher Loyer to emerge as reliable options.

Time is running out, though. And as a resident of Northwest Indiana, I can assure you Purdue fans are quickly losing confidence, too.