The remnants of the Pacific’s Hurricane Agatha could become the Atlantic’s first named storm

Hurricane Agatha was expected to fall apart over the mountains of Mexico, but its remnants could emerge in the Gulf of Mexico, where they would have a relatively low chance of becoming the Atlantic basin’s first named storm of 2022.

If that happens, it was too early to tell if the U.S. would be affected.

“For us in South Florida, it’s still kind of hard to know if there will be any impacts from any of the remnants and Agatha,” said Robert Garcia, senior meteorologist for the National Weather Service.

After moving over the mountains of southern Mexico, Agatha is expected to dissipate by around Wednesday morning, said Dennis Feltgen, a meteorologist and spokesman for the Miami-based National Hurricane Center.

“Agatha would have to cross over some pretty mountainous terrain in Mexico, so it may not survive clear into the Gulf,” Garcia said.

After that, a broad area of low pressure, which would include Agatha’s leftovers, is expected to emerge by the middle of next week in the southwest Gulf of Mexico, where it could gradually develop and drift eastward toward South Florida, forecasters said.

That broad area of low pressure has been given a 30% chance of development over the next five days.

Agatha’s maximum sustained winds increased to 110 mph Sunday afternoon, up from 75 mph earlier in the day, making it a strong Category 2 hurricane.

As of about 5 p.m., Sunday, Agatha was about 185 miles southwest of Mexico’s southeast coast, moving northeast at about 1 mph, and bringing hurricane warnings and watches with it to the Mexican coast.

The water between Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula and Cuba’s western tip, which extends north into the Gulf of Mexico and then to the Florida Straits, is especially warm for this time of year, hurricane experts say.

Warm water is fuel for tropical system development.

If Agatha, a Pacific hurricane, were to fully cross over Mexico and continue intact through to the Gulf, it would retain its name, Feltgen said.

But if a new named storm from those Agatha remnants forms in the Gulf of Mexico, it would get a new name from the Atlantic hurricane basin list. That name would be “Alex.”

The Gulf of Mexico, along with the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic Ocean, are all part of the Atlantic hurricane basin.